Category: Global Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, March 09, 2016
OECD Warns Leading Indicators Point to Slower Global Economic Growth / Economics / Global Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Pitifully Late Recognition of the Obvious
It's been pretty clear that the global economy has been slowing for some time, but recognition of that fact has been pitifully slow.
In January, the Fed still believed it would get in four rate hikes this year. The IMF also held to its overoptimistic global growth estimates.
Amusingly, the Fed still believes recent weakness is "transitory", but the always late to the party IMF changed its tune today in the wake of miserable trade data from China.
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Thursday, February 25, 2016
This is The Problem With Free Trade / Economics / Global Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
If you join a poker game and can’t identify the “mark,” then chances are, you’re it! The “mark” is the person at the game who is less experienced, or perhaps is given to reckless betting. By including this player in the game, everyone else has an opportunity to walk away a winner.But don’t lose sight of the bigger picture. Not everyone is a winner, and typically someone ends up the big loser!
The same principle works when countries get together for free or open trade. Everyone talks about how great it will be, how much their economies will grow, about efficiencies and new opportunities. But they almost never talk about the people who will lose.
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Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Don't Expect Global Economy 'Crisis Response' from G-20 Meeting / Economics / Global Economy
By: Bloomberg
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew sat down with Bloomberg's David Westin in Washington D.C. ahead of the G-20 meeting later this week in Shanghai, China.
When asked about a response from G-20 to global market turbulence, Lew said: "Don't expect a crisis response in a non-crisis environment. You know, it's not the job of finance ministers and central bank governors to accelerate a crisis. It's our job to try and avoid a crisis. If you're in a crisis, you do different things."
He added: "I don't think this is a moment in time when you're going to see individual countries make the kinds of specific commitments that have been made in some other contexts that have been marked by real crisis. This is not a moment of crisis. This is a moment where you've got real economies doing better than markets think, in some cases."
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Friday, January 29, 2016
Economic Headwinds: Big Players, Regime Uncertainty and the Misery Index / Economics / Global Economy
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Before we delve into the economic prospects for 2016, let’s take a look at the economies in the Americas, Asia, Europe and the Middle East/Africa to see how they fared in the 2014-15 period. A clear metric for doing this is the misery index. For any country, a misery index score is simply the sum of the unemployment, inflation, and bank lending rates, minus the percentage change in real GDP per capita. A higher misery index score reflects higher levels of “misery.”
Saturday, January 16, 2016
Themes, Dreams, and Schemes - Global Economy at Stall Speed, Monetary Velocity and Interest Rates / Economics / Global Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
First I must offer an apology of sorts for being in absentia for an extended period of time. I would imagine that those of you who struggle to keep up with the demands of work, family, and everyday stresses understand this, but I apologize anyway. There are links on the blog to the Liberty Talk Radio appearances I’ve made over the past few months just to prove that I’m still vertical. Graham joins me once again and as always has some interesting takeaways.
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Shipping Said to Have Ceased… Is the Worldwide Economy Grinding to a Halt? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Jeff_Berwick
Last week, I received news from a contact who is friends with one of the biggest billionaire shipping families in the world. He told me they had no ships at sea right now, because operating them meant running at a loss.
This weekend, reports are circulating saying much the same thing: The North Atlantic has little or no cargo ships traveling in its waters. Instead, they are anchored. Unmoving. Empty.
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Monday, January 11, 2016
The Shrinking Global Economy, In Three Charts / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Rubino
Regular contributor Michael Pollaro offers three more charts which tell a story that's both disturbing and apparently misunderstood by a lot of mainstream analysts.
The US trade deficit (exports minus imports) has been getting smaller. Since a trade deficit subtracts from GDP growth, a shrinking deficit will, other things being equal, produce a bigger, faster-growing economy (that's the mainstream take).
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Tuesday, December 01, 2015
Collapsing Global Economic Trade / Economics / Global Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The global economic trade is down 8.4 percent so far this year. Among the many economic indicators that experts use to gauge the health of the world economy, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) usually goes unnoticed. This Index offers an indication of the global demand and supply of major stock materials that are used by manufacturers at the beginning of production. And the shocking truth is that the index has been plummeting to reach a new low not seen before.
Sunday, November 22, 2015
Limits to Economic Growth - Challenge and Choices / Economics / Global Economy
By: Nicole_Foss
Nicole Foss: After more than 30 years of exponential growth, gargantuan resource demand and increasingly frenetic consumption, we have now reached, or are reaching, an array of limits to growth. During our long, debt-fuelled boom, we reached out spatially through globalisation to monetise as much global production as possible, in order to facilitate the efficient transfer of wealth from the global periphery to its economic heartland.
We also, through the profligate use of credit and debt, reached forward in time to borrow from the future in order to stage an orgy of consumption in the present. This spectacularly successful modern form of economic imperialism delivered unprecedented wealth concentration, the like of which previous imperial structures could not have dreamed of attaining.
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Friday, November 13, 2015
Brutal Economic News As The World Rolls Over / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Rubino
Brutal news is pouring in from pretty much everywhere.
US retail sales are flat and wholesale prices are falling. Big retail chains are missing on earnings and seeing their shares plunge.
Chinese nonperforming loans are soaring while imports, car sales and steel production are way down.
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Thursday, August 20, 2015
The Global Economy’s Health Is Not That Complicated / Economics / Global Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Federal Reserve Bank has printed trillions of dollars to monetize US government debt just to keep the government afloat. Any significant rise in interest rates will probably decimate US government finances, the fragile housing market and in the bond market it will cause a financial catastrophe through interest rate derivatives.
This is a solid reason why the Fed will not raise any rates in any foreseeable future.
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Monday, May 25, 2015
Into the Breach / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Recently, I thought it would be fun to upgrade the turbo charger on my old car. No real good reason, other than it would be free (it was given to me) and interesting. It’s a very light car that feels like a little rocket (when it works)--a guilty pleasure.
One thing I hadn’t anticipated was the need for higher quality intake hoses to manage the extra air flow and exhaust heat. Over and over, I keep blowing hose connections. While the car still drives during periods, there is barely any power at all.
Friday, February 27, 2015
Why Expectations for Future Global Business Activity are Plunging / Economics / Global Economy
By: EWI
Enjoy an excerpt from "The State of the Global Markets 2015 Edition," a comprehensive report by Elliott Wave International
Editor's note: This article is excerpted from "The State of the Global Markets 2015 Edition," a comprehensive report by Elliott Wave International, the world's largest independent market-forecasting firm (data through December 2014). You can download the full, 53-page report here -- 100% free.
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Monday, November 24, 2014
Most of The World Economies Panic - Is The US Next? / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Rubino
It's been quite a month.
In late October Japan, despite a year of fairly aggressive quantitative easing, dropped back into recession and concluded that even easier money was the cure for its ills. It announced a debt monetization plan of almost science-fictional proportions in which the amount of new yen to be created, as a percentage of GDP, will be equivalent to $3 trillion a year in the US. See Reactions to BoJ's Kuroda's Stunning, Doubled-Down QE 'Experiment'
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Monday, November 10, 2014
A World Run On Broken Economic Models / Economics / Global Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
As I was writing The Broken Model Of The Eurozone yesterday, I already knew there would have to be a sequel, because doing everything in one go would have been too much. And then, considerably less than two seconds later, it dawned on me that if I wanted to cover broken models and systems, a book would be the very least. But I don’t want to write a book, or, certainly, not here and now. Therefore, the best I think I can do is to sit down and let it flow, train of thought, stream of consciousness, probably the approach that suits me best to begin with.
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
The Great Depression, World War II, And What They Really Mean / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Rubino
Nearly a century after the fact, the Great Depression remains THE object lesson for virtually every branch of economics. To monetarists the fact that the US money supply fell by nearly a third in the 1930s illustrates the need for a central bank to maintain steady money growth. To Keynesians the Depression’s depth and duration proved that capitalist systems are inherently unstable and need a big, powerful government to manage them. World War II, in this framework, saved the US economy from permanent 25% unemployment.
Saturday, September 06, 2014
The Global Economy is Watching ISIS / Politics / Global Economy
By: Harry_Dent
The biggest news topic in our global economy now centers on the growing threat from ISIS. They are well-funded, well-organized and brutal. Their on-the-ground army in Iraq and Syria and their extremely violent actions have the world on edge.
After the beheading of two U.S. journalists, Obama has said that the objective is clear: “That is to degrade and destroy ISIS.”
The world’s Geopolitical cycle is heating up. And it doesn’t bode well.
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Thursday, August 07, 2014
How U.S. Dollar Destruction Threatens the Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Forbes Editor-in-Chief and longtime friend Steve Forbes leads off this week’s Outside the Box with a sweeping historical summary – and damning indictment – of the “cheap money” policies of the US executive branch and Federal Reserve. Four decades of fiat money (since Richard Nixon and his Treasury Secretary, John Connally, axed the gold standard in 1971) and six years of Fed funny business have led us, in Steve’s words, to an era of “declining mobility, great inequality, and the destruction of personal wealth.”
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Their Economy Will Collapse, Including Ours / Economics / Global Economy
By: Submissions
Harry Dent writes: Central bankers think they can keep their economy going by artificial stimulus until they hit escape velocity and grow at normal rates again — but they’re wrong.
Here at Dent Research we hold a different view to what drives the economy.
And central bankers are in for three big surprises ahead.
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Monday, July 28, 2014
Global Economy - It's Déjà Vu Disappointment All Over Again / Economics / Global Economy
By: Michael_Pento
Baseball great Yogi Berra had a saying “It's déjà vu all over again”, and every year around this time, I am reminded of those words. As we have once again, happened upon that magical time of year I call, recovery summer déjà vu. It’s the time of year when Wall Street and Washington apologists trot out their dog and pony narrative, in an attempt to spin the actual data, proving we have finally embarked on the summer that will launch sustainable economic growth.
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