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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Global Economy

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Friday, July 25, 2014

Geopolitics and Markets Red Flags Raised by the Fed and the BIS on Risk-taking / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Growing geopolitical risk is on everyone’s mind right now, but in today’s Outside the Box, Michael Cembalest of J.P. Morgan Asset Management leads off with a helpful reminder: the only time since WWII that a violent conflict has had a medium-term negative effect on markets was in 1973, when the Israeli-Arab war led to a Saudi oil embargo against the US and a quadrupling of oil prices. And he backs up that assertion with an interesting table of facts labeled “War zone countries as a percentage of total world… [population, oil production, GDP, etc.].”

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Economics

Friday, July 25, 2014

The Coming Economic Slump / Economics / Global Economy

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Governments and central banks have made little or no progress in recovering from the Lehman crisis six years ago. The problem is not helped by dependence on statistics which are downright misleading. This is particularly true of real GDP, comprised of nominal GDP deflated by an estimate of price inflation. First, we must discuss the inflation adjustment.

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Economics

Monday, July 14, 2014

Why Is Zero Economic Growth 'Unexpected' ? / Economics / Global Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

Always Unexpected
Each monthly decline in leading economic indicators, when it happens in the Eurozone, as in the US or Japan, China, Brazil, India or elsewhere, is always “unexpected”. Why is this?

For example the March, April, May and June declines for the Eurozone were each time titled “unexpected” by newswires and mainstream media the month following each “surprise”. Taking the case of Reuters, it reported April 14  that Eurozone industrial output had fallen in March “for the first time since August” so this was able to be called unexpected. Then the decline continued in April.

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Economics

Friday, July 04, 2014

Investors and Austrian Economics / Economics / Global Economy

By: Robert_Blumen

Robert Blumen, a software engineer with a background in financial applications, recently spoke with the Mises Institute about the Austrian School’s growing influence among investors.

Mises Institute: In recent years, we’ve seen more and more Austrian-tinged economic analysis coming from investors like Mark Spitznagel and Jim Rogers, to just name two. As someone personally involved in the investment world, have you yourself seen growth in Austrian ideas among investors and similar professionals?

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Economics

Friday, July 04, 2014

Christine Lagarde's Birkin Bag Of IMF Tricks / Economics / Global Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

While Nobody's Watching
Christine Lagarde and the IMF chose the midst of the world football cup and the Iraq and Ukrainian crises as just the right moment to announce new “draconian plans” to solve the debt crisis of the developed countries. Dressed in her Hermes scarf and clutching her uber-expensive Jane Birkin-bag, she laid out the IMF Bagmen's plan, this week.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Economy - The Better It Looks, The Worse It Gets / Economics / Global Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It’s common knowledge at this point, even if there’s never a shortage of voices who will insist on denying it, that many of the numbers we see allegedly describing our economic realities, are not real at all. Unemployment, GDP, the issue is familiar. And if the US government, or any government for that matter, thinks it’s such a great idea to “massage” their numbers, then to quite an extent those of us who pay attention can shrug them off as largely irrelevant, even if they greatly distort many people’s views of where we find ourselves. The nonsense comes in so fast and furious we need to realize we can’t win ‘em all. But we should never be tempted into thinking much of what we read are anything else than fake, virtual zombie numbers. Still, it’s when fake numbers get real life consequences that we need to raise our voices, even if that’s for the umpteenth time. A report issued yesterday by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) makes for such a moment. Here’s what the BBC had to say:

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Economics

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Conscious Uncouplings - Global Bad Economies / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

By Grant Williams

It is with hearts full of sadness that we have decided to separate. We have been working hard for well over a year, some of it together, some of it separated, to see what might have been possible between us, and we have come to the conclusion that while we love each other very much we will remain separate.

We are, however, and always will be a family, and in many ways we are closer than we have ever been.

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Economics

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Problems Associated with the End of the Third Industrial Revolution And Stock Market Indices / Economics / Global Economy

By: Wim_Grommen

1 INTRODUCTION

Every production phase or civilization or other human invention goes through a so-called transformation process. Transitions are social transformation processes that cover at least one generation. In this paper I will use one such transition to demonstrate the position of our present civilization. When we consider the characteristics of the phases of a social transformation we may find ourselves at the end of what might be called the third industrial revolution. Transitions are social transformation processes that cover at least one generation (= 25 years).

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Economics

Monday, May 05, 2014

How Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) affects America and its Partners / Economics / Global Economy

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

TPPA or Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement is a trade agreement between 11 countries namely Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei Darussalam, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, America, Peru, Mexico, Chile. Details are vague due to the secretive nature of the whole process and not much is being reported in the media. The first round of talks was held in Melbourne Australia in March 2010. Since then there are already 19 rounds of talks with the last one in Brunei Darussalam. It is believed that TPPA operates within the same scope of other Free Trade Agreements. It involves free trade policies such as opening up of the domestic market, subsidies, tariffs, copyright rule, intellectual property rights and enhancing legal protection for foreign investors.  

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Economics

Monday, April 28, 2014

Roubini: War in Ukraine Could Tip Europe Back into Recession / Economics / Global Economy

By: Bloomberg

In an interview with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle at the Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles, California, Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini said, war in Ukraine could tip 'fragile' and 'uneven' Europe back into a recession, " I would say the last thing that the eurozone can afford and need right now is another shock coming from an increase in gas prices and or even a cut off of supply of gas coming from Russia to the Western European economies. That would tip the European economies back into a recession if that were to occur."

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Politics

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Rome Wasn't Burnt In A Day / Politics / Global Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

The Sack of Rome

With highly suspicious precision on dates, and disputed by many sources, Wikipedia gives the date of Rome's fall as August 24th, 410 AD, following a two-year siege. In fact, Rome had been falling for a long time. It had fallen in different ways at different times, but at each event and in each of the run-up intervals, the Roman Empire had suffered repeated economic and monetary crises, and partial recoveries. The Sack of 410 by the Visigoths can be called the definitive or final fall of Rome but, here again this was in no way an overnight event. The complete loss of Imperial power and its exercize from the city of Rome is placed by many historians at about 435-445 AD. The process of terminal decline and fall therefore took at least 25 years.

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Economics

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Economic Outlook Darkens / Economics / Global Economy

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Many decades of Keynesian-inspired economic and monetary corruption have left advanced economies with a legacy of debt and low savings. In a nutshell, that is the problem which is driving us into another financial crisis. That moment could be drawing upon us, signalled by the recent collapse in bond yields.

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Economics

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Global Economy Economic Stink-Tanks / Economics / Global Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

There’s an old quote along the lines of if you’re going to lie, make it a big one, repeat it like crazy, and eventually, people will regard it as truth. Truth is awfully cheap these days. For as buffaloed as most people are with the state of economic affairs not only in the United States, but also in the rest of the world, you’d think they still believed the Earth was flat.

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Economics

Saturday, January 18, 2014

A Glimpse into the Coming Economic Collapse / Economics / Global Economy

By: Casey_Research

By Jeff Thomas, International Man

Beginning in 1999, we predicted a systemic economic collapse that would take place in the First World and would impact all other economies. We began to list some of the "dominoes" that would fall as the collapse evolved and described that the "Great Unravelling," as we termed it, would take roughly ten years. At that time, we guesstimated that the first two of the dominoes, a real estate crash and subsequent stock market crash in the US, would begin in about 2005.

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Economics

Saturday, January 18, 2014

Global Economic Crisis: There is an App for that! / Economics / Global Economy

By: David_Hague

Dear reader, I am feeling optimistic today that there is a light at the end of the tunnel for our global economic crisis. To be sure it is not going to be straightforward or easy but it does show us a way out. Before I relieve your angst regarding the global economic crisis and share the change that will guide the world into a new economic renaissance, please indulge me and allow me to explain how I uncovered this optimistic vision of our future.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

China Becomes World's Largest Trading Nation Surpassing U.S. / Economics / Global Economy

By: BATR

The globalists put their plan into motion decades ago. The proper meaning of the headline is not that China is an economic miracle, but that the United States, systematically stripped of its industrial might, is destined to fall even further. The Chinese economy is a haven of direct transnational integration. The outsourcing of manufacturing from domestic capacity is not solely a response of cheaper economic cost of goods production. No, the underlying reason for the migration of product assemblage is to weaken an independent American economy.

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Economics

Monday, January 13, 2014

Debt, Deficits, Demographics, Deleveraging and Deflation - Forecasting the Killer D's 2014 / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

It seems I'm in a constant dialogue about the markets and the economy everywhere I go. Comes with the territory. Everyone wants to have some idea of what the future holds and how they can shape their own personal version of the future within the Big Picture. This weekly letter is a large part of that dialogue, and it's one that I get to share directly with you. Last week we started a conversation looking at what I think is the most positive and dynamic aspect of our collective future: The Human Transformation Revolution. By that term I mean the age of accelerating change in all manner of technologies and services that is unfolding before us. It is truly exhilarating to contemplate. Combine that revolution with the growing demand for a middle-class lifestyle in the emerging world, and you get a powerful engine for growth. In a simpler world we could just focus on those positives and ignore the fumbling of governments and central banks. Alas, the world is too complex for that.

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Economics

Thursday, January 09, 2014

China Economy to Dictate Global Monetary Policy, Currency and Commodity Prices? / Economics / Global Economy

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

The recent credit crunch in China is due to PBOC’s (People's Bank Of China) or China's Central Bank refusal to act as the lender of last resort so as to help banks to get out from their financial mess. It also demonstrates that Central bank is willing to allow market forces to play a bigger role in the daily operations of the banks. This also means that banks will have to be on their own since PBOC has indicated that it will not be bailing them out anytime soon. As a result banks will have no choice but to be more conservative in their lending policies. What PBOC hope to achieve out of this?

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Economics

Tuesday, January 07, 2014

Major Global Economic Themes for 2014 / Economics / Global Economy

By: Submissions

Ronan Keenan writes: This time last year, the majority of financial commentators held a downbeat outlook for the global economy in 2013. The potential for instability was seemingly high, but in reality it turned out that the greatest shock was a lack of any major shocks.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve reduced its monetary stimulus measures and stock markets actually rallied on the news. Unemployment fell to a five-year low of 7% and a government shutdown came and went without hysteria. An unfamiliar calm reigned over the eurozone through the year, resulting in a welcome decline in bond yields for the weaker “periphery” nations. China successfully reversed its slowing growth, while Japan’s extraordinary stimulus policies helped reinvigorate an economy that has suffered a quarter century of stagnation.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Global Economy Suffers From Hypothermia / Economics / Global Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

We've used the analogy before, in particular to describe what happened to the Roman Empire during the latter days of its existence. Looking around various economies in the world today, the same analogy once again comes to mind. One might say that what we see these days is analogous to the more advanced stages of hypothermia.

Early hypothermia may show in nothing more than cold feet, in itself an amusing analogy perhaps. But a body that is exposed to extreme cold over longer periods of time will at some point start to exhibit symptoms such as frostbite, which are the result of the core of the body trying to save itself at the cost of the periphery, the extremities. Typically, a human body, for instance, will lose its toes first because the heart can no longer pump enough blood (heat) to them and at the same time keep the body's core above a minimum temperature.

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