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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Economic Statistics

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

The Dangers of Investing Based on Phony Government Statistics / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: MoneyMetals

President Donald Trump recently took to Twitter to boast, “The U.S. has an increased economic value of more than 7 Trillion Dollars since the Election. May be the best economy in the history of our country. Record Jobs numbers. Nice!”

“We ran out of words to describe how good the jobs numbers are,” reported Neil Irwin of the New York Times, amplified in a Trump retweet.

If you believe the headline numbers, joblessness is at a generational low with the economy booming.

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Economics

Thursday, November 24, 2016

Another US Election Year, Another Bunch Of Fake Economic Growth Numbers / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: John_Rubino

Some pretty good economic reports have energized various parts of the financial markets lately. Consumer spending is up, GDP is exceeding expectations and even factory orders, that perennial downer, popped this morning.

In response the dollar is soaring and interest rates are at breaking out of their multi-decade down-channel. The economy is clearly recovering, implying a return to normality. Right?

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Economics

Tuesday, September 06, 2016

GDP is more of a fuzzy reflection of the Economy / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: John_Mauldin

GDP is a fairly recent statistic. Though it is malleable in its construction, it can be contentious in its application. Yet the media tend to release GDP numbers as if they are an accurate reflection of the general economy.

GDP is one economic model among several that could serve the purpose. But its use can lead to policies that reflect the thinking of a particular school of economic, monetary, and fiscal policy.

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Economics

Friday, September 02, 2016

Psychological Manipulation & Economic Deception are now the Order of the day / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Sol_Palha

A man has free choice to the extent that he is rational. St. Thomas Aquinas

It is possible if one takes the right actions to make money and remain relatively unscathed in such an environment. One cannot say the same for the masses because they are walking with their eyes wide shut. In other words, they do not see what’s happening; their heads are stuck in the sand. They are oblivious to what’s going around, and if you try to warn them, they are apt to strangle you. This situation is strikingly similar to “Plato’s allegory of the cave.”

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Economics

Saturday, July 16, 2016

Ireland’s Bogus 26% GDP Economic Boost / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: MISES

Jonathan Newman writes: Ireland’s Central Statistics Office updated their 2015 national income figures and revealed a staggering 26.3% increase in real GDP from 2014 to 2015.

Paul Krugman called it “leprechaun economics.”

Joseph Salerno said “that’s unbelievable!”

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Economics

Tuesday, June 07, 2016

The Illusion of Falling Official 'Unemployment' Fades / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: MoneyMetals

Friday's employment report featured the headline unemployment rate falling from 5.0% to 4.7% - which is a huge move lower. About the only encouraging aspect of the report is that markets largely ignored the fantasy headline for a change and focused on the ugly details. Nearly everyone acknowledged the report as bad news and markets reacted accordingly.

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Economics

Friday, June 03, 2016

Funniest BLS US Jobs Report Ever! / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: James_Quinn

Only a captured government drone could put out a report showing only 38,000 new jobs created, with the working age population rising by 205,000, and have the balls to report the unemployment rate plunged from 5.0% to 4.7%, the lowest since August 2007. If you ever needed proof these worthless bureaucrats are nothing more than propaganda peddlers for the establishment, this report is it. The two previous months were revised significantly downward in the fine print of the press release.

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Economics

Saturday, April 30, 2016

US Economic Statistics LIES, LIES AND OMG, MORE LIES / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: James_Quinn

It’s that time of year again. It’s open enrollment for health plans at my employer. They are biggest employer in Philly and have the most leverage possible with the insurance companies. They have such good leverage that my premiums are going up “only” 9.8% this year for a basic HMO plan. Based on what I hear from others, I should be thankful for just a 9.8% increase.

This isn’t a new development. Since I’ve been tracking all my expenditures using Quicken since 1991, I know exactly what my annual health insurance costs have been every year. Obamacare was passed in 2009 and began to be implemented in 2010. Obama declared that families could expect $2,500 of savings per year. I know for a fact my annual medical expenses were $2,000 higher in 2015 than they were in 2010.

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Economics

Friday, March 04, 2016

Lies, Damn Lies, & BLS Economic Statistics / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: James_Quinn

“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” ― Benjamin Disraeli

It’s my favorite day of the month. The Bureau of Lies & Scams issues their double seasonally adjusted, massaged to provide a happy ending, birth death adjusted unemployment propaganda, designed to keep the masses in the dark about their own dire financial circumstances. Even though the equally manipulated GDP is at 1% or below, retail sales are plunging, corporate profits plummeted by 15% in the 4th quarter and Challenger & Grey corporate layoff announcements were up 42% in January versus last year, our fraudulent friends at the BLS announced glorious employment figures this morning.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

China Fake Economic Statistics - Everybody’s Doing It / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: John_Rubino

Yesterday’s post on the unreliability of China’s official numbers attracted comments that were mostly along the lines of “people who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.” That is, where does an American get off criticizing the honesty of another government’s reporting practices? Some samples:

Not to put too fine a point on it but do you trust US GDP numbers? Unemployment numbers? Inflation numbers? Which country, if they posted totally true and accepted numbers, would have the larger impact on global markets? The biggest economy or the second biggest economy? Just saying….

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Economics

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Do You Follow The Hype Surrounding Economic Reporting? / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Rodney_Johnson

When my children were young, one of the books we read to them was: “When You Give a Mouse a Cookie.” The point of the book is to follow a chain reaction stemming from providing a treat to a rodent. He will want a glass of milk, a napkin, have to sweep up crumbs, etc. It was odd, but entertaining.

I’m often reminded of this book when I see economic reports. It’s not that the numbers are frivolous, but taken as individual data points they can’t mean very much.

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Economics

Monday, September 14, 2015

U.S. Unemployment Rate - A Dirty Game of Numbers / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The newest addition of the Bureau of lies’ newest falsified and manipulated document about the employment figures is now out, available for viewing of the ignorant masses. The makers of the report will make sure that they drum it up for the whole world to hear, so that their plans of treachery and deceit stay well on course. Even the mature financial minds at Wall Street will accept it, because they are always in search of positive news to help their financial interests in the market.

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Economics

Monday, September 07, 2015

U.S. Real Wealth Weaker than GDP Stats Show / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Frank_Shostak

US real gross domestic product (GDP) grew faster than initially thought in Q2. GDP expanded at a 3.7 percent annual rate instead of the 2.3 percent rate reported last month and 0.6 percent in Q1. Most experts, in response to this figure, are now arguing that the US economy is strengthening visibly.

This, coupled with a relatively stable price level, raises the likelihood that the economy is approaching the path of healthy economic growth with stable price inflation.

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Economics

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: James_Quinn

The government released their monthly CPI report this week. Even though it came in at an annualized rate of 3.6%, they and their mouthpieces in the corporate mainstream media dutifully downplayed the uptrend. They can’t let the plebs know the truth. That might upend their economic recovery storyline and put a crimp into their artificial free money, zero interest rate, stock market rally. If they were to admit inflation is rising, the Fed would be forced to raise rates. That is unacceptable in our rigged .01% economy. There are banker bonuses, CEO stock options, corporate stock buyback earnings per share goals and captured politician elections at stake.

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Economics

Friday, June 12, 2015

The Fallacies of GDP Economic Statistics / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Alasdair_Macleod

The common error of confusing growth with progress goes largely unnoticed, though it permeates all macroeconomic analysis. There is no better example of this mistake than the fallacies behind the interpretation of Gross Domestic Product. GDP is the market value of all final goods and services in a given year. As such, it is only an accounting identity reflecting the quantity of money in the economy.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

GDP, Inflation, Employment Economic Statistics: It’s All a Lie / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Harry_Dent

Rodney Johnson writes: I’m not much for glossing over the true state of affairs just to make things look better, which is why I take issue with many government reports.

When it comes to providing clear information on the economy, the U.S. government is more late-night pitchman than serious news anchor. And to make matters worse, many of the numbers they peddle have been “adjusted” so that reports show better results.

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Economics

Friday, May 15, 2015

How GDP Metrics Distort Our View of the Economy / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: MISES

Chris Casey writes: GDP purports to measure economic activity while largely divorcing itself from the quality, profitability, depth, breadth, improvement, advancement, and rationalization of goods and services provided.

For example, even if a ship — built at great expense — cruised without passengers, fished without success, or ferried without cargo; it nevertheless contributed to GDP. Profitable for investors or stranded in the sand; it added to GDP. Plying the seas or rusting into an orange honeycomb shell; the nation’s GDP grew.1

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Economics

Friday, May 01, 2015

Investigating The U.S. GDP Deflator: Wildly Differing Results Depending on Your Choice / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Mike_Shedlock

As noted in Real Q1 GDP 0.2% vs. Consensus 1.0%; Disaster in the Details I got the first quarter GDP forecast details correct.

However, a bit of self-assessment with differing GDP deflators shows my prediction of close to zero growth could easily have looked rather silly.

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Economics

Friday, April 10, 2015

Confusion over US Unemployment Data / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Unemployment is the one statistic that one would have thought is easy to define: just total up the number of people on unemployment benefit and there's your answer. It is however much more complex, particularly in a large country like the United States, whose potential labour force is estimated to be 250,080,000 across all 50 states plus Washington DC. Of this total 101,479,000 are not currently employed, a ratio of over 40%, and of these only 8,575,000 are deemed to be actually unemployed. The relevant figures are here.

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Economics

Saturday, April 04, 2015

Is the U.S. Government Lying About Unemployment Statistics? / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: DailyWealth

Dr. David Eifrig writes: Over the last two days, I've shown you how I gauge the health of the U.S. economy.

I've also shown you why you can't blindly trust the government's economic statistics. Not because of some conspiracy agenda... but because measuring a $17 trillion economy is extremely difficult.

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