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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Economic Statistics

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

GDP Economic Growth Statistics Bag of Tricks / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Michael_Pento

If you're not happy with the stumbling U.S. economy all you have to do is just wait a few more months. It seems the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will perform a little hocus pocus on the GDP numbers starting in July 2013. According to the Financial Times, U.S. GDP would become 3% bigger due to the new change in its growth calculations.

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Politics

Saturday, April 27, 2013

U.S. Government Manipulated Economic Statistics / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: Peter_Schiff

Don Draper, Mad Men's master advertiser likes to say "when you don't like what they are saying, change the conversation." When it comes to the current economic weakness, which was confirmed again today by the release of lower than expected GDP data, Washington would love do just that. Fortunately for them, they consistently outdo the master minds of Madison Avenue when it comes to misdirection. If the government doesn't like what people are saying, they don't bother just to change the conversation, they change the meaning of the words.

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Economics

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Discerning the Value of Economic Information / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: David_Galland

It has become tradition at La Estancia de Cafayate for Casey Research to host an intimate conference in conjunction with the Harvest Celebration. In the most recent of the series, Bill Bonner, editor of the Diary of a Rogue Economist and a friend of long standing, kicked the program off with a thought-provoking discussion about the nature of information.

With a nod to Nietzsche, Bill dissected the nature of information into two categories.

The first sort is that which is derived from direct observation. For an example, Bill pointed to the tangible information that comes from living in a tribal village. As a member of the tribe, you knew your neighbors, you knew what sort of crops would grow in the different seasons, where and when to hunt, etc.

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Economics

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Surmounting Government Confiscatory Policies & Bogus Official Economic Data / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: DeepCaster_LLC

January, 2013

“As the miscreants in Washington negotiate solutions to the [various –Ed.] crises, trial balloons have been floated that agreement has been reached to use a new CPI measure—the C-CPI-U, which tends to understate inflation even more than the CPI-U—as way of deceptively reducing cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security, etc.  Not too surprisingly, public reaction appears to be turning increasingly negative, as the concept gets broader exposure in the popular press.

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Politics

Monday, December 10, 2012

Real U.S. Unemployment Rate is 22.9% / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: Paul_Craig_Roberts

Statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) calls the government’s latest jobs and unemployment reports “nonsense numbers.”

There are a number of ongoing problems with the released numbers. For example, the concurrent-seasonal factor adjustments are unstable. The birth-death model adds non-existent jobs each month that are then taken out in the annual downward benchmark revisions. Williams calculates that the job overstatement through November averages 45,000 monthly. In other words, employment gains during 2012 have been overstated by about 500,000 jobs. Another problem is that each month’s jobs number is boosted by downside revision of the previous month’s jobs number. Williams reports that the 146,000 new jobs reported for November “was after a significant downside revision to October’s reporting. Net of prior-period revisions, November’s seasonally-adjusted monthly gain was 97,000.”

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Politics

Monday, October 15, 2012

BLS Keeping Up Statistical Appearances / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Last week, supporters of the current administration rejoiced over job numbers released by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS). For the first time since the administration came to power, the official unemployment number fell below 8%. Keynesian cheerleaders all claimed the numbers meant we are surely on the road to economic recovery, just in time for Christmas, and also, the election. Others saw through this ruse.

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Politics

Saturday, October 13, 2012

Figures Lie, Liars Figure, the Math of Mainstream Economists / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe also have a way to vastly increase US household income – the feds have only to spend more money! Just add zeros. How about that? The poor family has not a dime more in real, spendable income…but we’ve managed – by clever use of mathematics and economics – to double its income.

But that illustrates the nature of modern economics. It is all numbers…and none of them mean anything. And none means less than the zero.

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Politics

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Cooked or Accurate US Employment Numbers? / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: Stephen_Lendman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor over a decade, US job prospects have been dismal. Since crisis conditions erupted in 2008, they've been dire for millions wanting work.

Since Obama took office in January 2009, job creation has been pathetic. Numbers reported during the weakest US recovery on record largely failed to compensate for others lost.
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Politics

Tuesday, October 09, 2012

They Cook the Books, You Can't Trust Official Statistics / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: Lewrockwell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJack D. Douglas writes: All official, statist statistics are only about the subjects and categories, and use only operational definitions and procedures to construct those statistics, which are determined ultimately by the politicians who control the state. All official statistics are, thus, inherently biased by the powerful individuals who run the states, so official stats. vary wildly among nation-states and other political groups. In America, for example, there are massive official stats. on the deaths the state categorizes as due to drug uses defined by the state as "illegal," almost entirely those of poorer people.

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Politics

Sunday, September 09, 2012

Governments Spinning Bad Economic News Into Good / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: Paul_Craig_Roberts

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFriday’s payroll jobs report says that 96,000 new jobs were created in August and that the unemployment rate (U.3) fell from 8.3% to 8.1%. As 96,000 new jobs are not enough to keep up with population growth, the decline in the U.3 unemployment rate was caused by 368,000 discouraged job seekers giving up on finding employment and dropping out of the work force as measured by U.3. Discouraged workers are not included in the U.3 measure of unemployment, which makes the measure useless. The only purpose of U.3 is to keep bad news out of the news. the U.3 unemployment rate only measures those who have not been discouraged by the inability to find a job and are still actively seeking employment.

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Economics

Sunday, September 09, 2012

How Down Economic Statistics Can Be Up if You Make the Rules, QE3? / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article "In the financial markets, the current economic cycle is still often viewed as if it is comparable to the far shorter cycles we have experienced since World War II. If that was indeed the case, the solution would be to implement fiscal and monetary stimuli now until lending to the private sector and thereby growth rise substantially. However, what is being overlooked is that the total debt/GDP ratio has risen so sharply over the past 75 years that the limit has probably been reached.

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Politics

Monday, August 06, 2012

GDP Growth Statistical Nonsense, The Unseen Hand / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: Alasdair_Macleod

The assessment of economic growth based on Gross Domestic Product is a fallacy, because GDP is merely a measure of the amount of money in an economy. The one thing it does not measure, which is central to economic progress (note progress, not growth), is the level of entrepreneurial activity. This has important implications for the efficacy of government interventions and solutions to the current economic crisis.

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Politics

Sunday, August 05, 2012

U.S. Jobs Report: More Lies From “our” Big Brother / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: Paul_Craig_Roberts

In his report on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest jobs and unemployment report, statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) writes: “The July employment and unemployment numbers published today, August 3rd, were worthless and likely misleading. . . . Suspecting at one time that the jobs numbers were being rigged against him by his own Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), President Richard M. Nixon proposed a new approach to reporting the numbers. Although the proposed changes never were implemented, several decades later the BLS adopted reporting methods that were somewhat parallel to the late president’s thinking.”

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Economics

Saturday, March 24, 2012

A Random Walk Through the Economic Data Minefields / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis Friday finds me sleeping later than I planned … in the lounge at the airport in Stockholm, on my way to Paris. To the great applause of readers all over the world this may be the shortest letter in 12 years. I will write here and on the plane and quit when I land so I can be with friends this evening. No time for exhaustive research, so we will march through random topics that caught my attention this week until it is time to hit the send button. In no particular order, let's jump in.

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Politics

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Juking the Stats: Our Culture of Manipulation / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: Ashvin_Pandurangi

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA universal strategy of large institutions is the manipulation of their "books & records" in a positive direction - i.e. one suggesting high levels of current performance and future growth. We see this happen time and again across institutions in all sectors of developed societies, private and public. Large corporations, for example, extensively use off balance sheet vehicles riddled with leveraged products to hide their exposure to risk, or various other accounting tricks to over-state their revenues/profits and under-state their costs/liabilities.

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Politics

Monday, March 05, 2012

U.S. Recession Explanations, Does the ECRI Believe Its Own Economic Indicators? / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLate last month in ECRI Sticks with Recession Call on CNBC; More than a Bit of an Exaggeration by Achuthan to Make His Call? I questioned the ECRI's use of coincident indicators to make a claim regarding recession

I count three instances between 1990 and 2000 where ECRI coincident indicators flagged a recession by the methodology Achuthan cited.
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Economics

Monday, February 06, 2012

US Unemployment Hits 22.5% in Alternate Estimate / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Jesse

Perhaps this chart will help explain the divergence that Charles Biderman of Trimtabs sees between the official unemployment numbers and the income tax data he has been tracking.

The difference amongst the three measures revolves around the treatment of workers who desire a real full time job, but have to either settle for a part time position and other forms of under-employment that may technically qualify as a 'job' but not as a 'living,' or who have simply been removed from the government's official attention span.

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Politics

Monday, February 06, 2012

U.S. Fraudulent Election Year Unemployment Data, Lies, Lies, More and Bigger Lies / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: LewRockwell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic Collapse writes: On Friday, the entire financial world celebrated when it was announced that the unemployment rate in the United States had fallen to 8.3 percent. That is the lowest it has been since February 2009, and it came as an unexpected surprise for financial markets that are hungry for some good news. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls jumped by 243,000 during the month of January. You can read the full employment report right here.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

The GDP Growth Deception, Central Bank Manipulated Fake Economic Statistics / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Barry_M_Ferguson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs 2012 begins, investors need to know the true health of the US economy. A major barometer is the Gross Domestic Product figure. The US economy generates nearly $14.5 trillion dollars annually in Gross Domestic Product or GDP. This is a measure of economic output. When GDP is expanding, we feel good about the economy, our jobs, and our investments. When GDP is contracting, we feel bad about the economy, our jobs, and our investments. Therefore, it is imperative for central bankers and political regimes to foster ever expanding GDP numbers. A happy populace is less likely to revolt and demand new leadership. In our modern information age, everyone knows about the current GDP number. Expansion is good and the economy is growing. Contraction is bad and the economy is in a recession. Thank goodness the GDP number can be rather malleable. And, like everything else in the new era, it can be faked.

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Politics

Friday, September 02, 2011

The Great GDP Caper, Consequences of a Fraudulent Statistic / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast week the Commerce Department released its revised numbers for Quarter 2 GDP. The results were much less than satisfactory, with annualized ‘growth’ coming in at a pathetic 1.0%. Think of this as an economic stall speed. We know the GDP deflator allows the metric to be overstated to begin with, so it is VERY likely that America has re-entered the ‘great recession’ as it has been dubbed by the media. There are some burning issues in here that need to be discussed and they go way beyond the methodology of how GDP is calculated. I will end with the assertion, backed with output methodology, that is at least as reliable as what the Commerce Dept. offers that we never left the great recession.

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