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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Economic Statistics

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Friday, April 10, 2015

Confusion over US Unemployment Data / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Unemployment is the one statistic that one would have thought is easy to define: just total up the number of people on unemployment benefit and there's your answer. It is however much more complex, particularly in a large country like the United States, whose potential labour force is estimated to be 250,080,000 across all 50 states plus Washington DC. Of this total 101,479,000 are not currently employed, a ratio of over 40%, and of these only 8,575,000 are deemed to be actually unemployed. The relevant figures are here.

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Economics

Saturday, April 04, 2015

Is the U.S. Government Lying About Unemployment Statistics? / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: DailyWealth

Dr. David Eifrig writes: Over the last two days, I've shown you how I gauge the health of the U.S. economy.

I've also shown you why you can't blindly trust the government's economic statistics. Not because of some conspiracy agenda... but because measuring a $17 trillion economy is extremely difficult.

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Economics

Monday, March 09, 2015

The Grand Deception Continues, More Fed Propaganda / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Michael_Pento

Last Friday a photograph of a dress, whose exact colors were in doubt and became the subject of much debate, dominated the Internet. Not only is this a perfect example of the inane distractions that the public is fascinated with, but it is also a topic that should be elevated to a higher level of discussion. That is, how people can look at the same thing and yet interpret it in different ways?

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Economics

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

U.S. Economy Data Driven or Driven Data / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Peter_Schiff

There can be little doubt that data releases rather than experience or intuition are driving the economic conversation. This is perhaps a function of the disconnection that many people feel about an economy that they no longer understand. Rather than trusting their own eyes or their own gut to form an opinion, it's much easier to grab a set of convenient numbers. The big question then becomes what numbers you choose to look at and which you choose to ignore.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

GDP Economic Statistic : A Brief But Affectionate History / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: John_Mauldin

“Measurement theory shows that strong assumptions are required for certain statistics to provide meaningful information about reality. Measurement theory encourages people to think about the meaning of their data. It encourages critical assessment of the assumptions behind the analysis.

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Economics

Thursday, June 26, 2014

I Give You: The GDP of Sillyland / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I had seen the reports on Italy and Britain preparing to add heroin and hookers to their GDP, but I had put that down to some kind of desperate quirkiness. Now, though, I heard today that this is actually due to an EU directive, and the number crunchers at Eurostat demand countries obey this newfound accounting magic trick.

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Politics

Thursday, June 26, 2014

GDP - They’re Lying To Us / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: John_Rubino

Today the US took its next-to-last stab at calculating First Quarter GDP, and the downward revision was impressive even by recent standards. It now appears that the economy, well, here’s how Bloomberg puts it:

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Economics

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Economic Gross Output: J.M. Keynes versus J.-B. Say / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Steve_H_Hanke

In late April of this year, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) at the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it would start reporting a new data series as part of the U.S. national income accounts. In addition to gross domestic product (GDP), the BEA will start reporting gross output (GO). This announcement went virtually unnoticed and unreported — an unfortunate, but not uncommon, oversight on the part of the financial press. Yes, GO represents a significant breakthrough.

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Politics

Monday, June 16, 2014

Mafia GDP, Systemic Conspiracy to Alter Economic Data / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: Michael_Pento

Governments are not engaged in a systemic conspiracy to alter economic data after it has been collected. To get a multitude of individuals agreeing on how to fudge information would be far too difficult to control. Instead, it is much easier for a small group of government officials to simply change the formula for calculating the data points that they desire to manipulate to make the information seem more palatable.

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Economics

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Death Cross For Global Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Andrew_McKillop

The Perfect Storm
World Bank estimates and forecasts of economic growth are as slippy and always-cut-back as IMF forecasts. They share the same “optimistic cognitive bias”. The Bank's latest forecasts, issued Tuesday 10 June, used the terms “bumpy start to 2014”, nearly 6 months through the year, and talked about “cold winter conditions” slowing growth in “several countries”. Not in Europe. It had one of its warmest winters for decades – and growth declined in Europe, also!

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Economics

Monday, June 09, 2014

Geopolitics in Asia with Marc Faber & Understanding GDP Like Never Before / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Keith_Hilden

In our latest Squawkonomics interview with Marc Faber, we were told a story of a petulant and wincing state carrying a heavy burden and unwilling to release its full spectrum dominance view on its administration of the world in light of a recent economic fallback, a declining economic share of the global economy, and the very stewardship of the global reserve currency being in flux. The story did not have a clear ending, nor did the reign of the world come effortlessly into the hands of newly important states. Nor did it portend the future of frontier markets and developing countries that could very well benefit from a US with a declining share of global GDP. Perhaps overlooking a wide expanse of undeveloped frontier markets, a quote from Dune author Frank Herbert would be best. “There is no real ending. It’s just the place where you stop the story.” Indeed, that however the reserve currency question is answered, and however US economic hegemony looks in 10 or 20 years, there is one inevitable variable that stays constant throughout the geopolitical and economic King of the Hill tug of war between global powers. As two or more tigers duel on a mountain for global financial supremacy, the continued development of the rest of the developing world goes on unabated. That is a guarantee.

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Economics

Monday, June 09, 2014

Economic Doom & Gloom Sells / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: EconMatters

Improving Economic Data

We have noticed that despite an improvement in the economic fundamentals of the United States as per the robust manufacturing numbers, automobile sales data, and upbeat employment numbers in 2014 many go out of their way to find negatives in every economic report instead of focusing on the relativeness of the data. In other words, are we doing better in these areas than two years ago on an “apples to apples comparison” basis?

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Economics

Saturday, May 10, 2014

Just How Distorted are Those GDP Economic Numbers? / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I want to share two graphs that Tyler Durden posted yesterday and let you make up your own mind as to what they mean. We’ve all been able to see how US Q1′s official GDP growth was revised to 0.1%, after which Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan said they put the number at -0.6% and -0.8%, respectively. But Goldman, not to be outdone by itself, or that’s the impression, then comes out with a new prediction for Q2, for a rise of no less than 3.9%, or 4.5 % above their own Q1 number. Durden caught that one too:

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Economics

Tuesday, March 04, 2014

U.S. Real Disposable Income Per Capita Analysis / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: This morning I posted my latest Big Four update, which included today’s release of the January data for Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments. Now let’s take a closer look at a rather different calculation of incomes: “Real” Disposable Personal Income Per Capita.

The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator has been significantly disrupted by the bizarre but not unexpected oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Reviving the ‘Real World’ Scenario That’s Disappeared from Government Reports / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Submissions

F. Wiley writes: For 50 years or so the federal government has deliberately and to an increasing extent misstated probable future budget deficits. Democrats and Republicans are guilty. The White House is guilty. And so is Congress. Private firms that deliberately misrepresent their financial statements in this fashion would be guilty of a crime… The magnitude of the misrepresentation is breathtaking. - Former St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole, writing in the Wall Street Journal last April

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Economics

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

The GDP Economic Growth Distractor / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Peter_Schiff

Albert Einstein, a man who knew a thing or two about celestial mechanics, supposedly once called compound interest "the most powerful force in the universe." While the remark was likely meant to be funny (astrophysicists can be hilarious), it sheds light on the often overlooked fact that small changes, over time, can yield enormous results. Over eons, small creeks can carve large canyons through solid rock. The same phenomenon may be at work in our economy. A minor, but persistent under bias in the inflation gauge used in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may have created a wildly distorted picture of our economic health.

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Economics

Saturday, August 17, 2013

China's Fraudulent Inflation and GDP Economic Data / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Mike_Shedlock

It's easy to make a case that GDP data everywhere is fraudulent because of the definition which includes government deficit spending, regardless of how ridiculous or useless the spending is. However, China takes the distortions to a level well beyond other countries.

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Economics

Monday, August 12, 2013

The Cult Of Economic Propaganda / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Andrew_McKillop

COMPULSIVE LYING
Modern economic communication can be called a degenerate art. For the Nazi regime 'entartete Kunst' meant degenerate art and described virtually all modern art – which was banned as anti-German.  Today, economic propaganda has reached a high point of degeneracy, falsifying all and any information with a very simple goal. The information available to anybody – whether specialists or ordinary citizens – is no longer sure. Consequently we do not know what is really happening, but more important, almost nobody cares. This is one key goal of any propaganda campaign – to produce a confused, disoriented, fearful and childish-minded public craving for reassurance.

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Economics

Thursday, August 01, 2013

Curious GDP Deflator: Understanding Why Q2 GDP Growth Wasn’t 0.6% / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short:How do you get from Nominal GDP to Real GDP? You extract inflation from the numbers. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) uses its own GDP deflator for this purpose, one that is somewhat different from the BEA’s deflator for Personal Consumption Expenditures and quite a bit different from the better-known Bureau of Labor Statistics’ inflation gauge, the Consumer Price Index.

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Politics

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

The Most Rigged Economic Indicators / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: Money_Morning

Garrett Baldwin writes: On August 2, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report the official unemployment rate. But this number doesn't tell the accurate story of the jobs picture here in the United States.

That's usually the case with government-produced economic indicators. Whatever the government figure will say, it will not truly reflect reality. Simply put, it's a rigged number.

When it comes to cheating the numbers, nobody does it better than Uncle Sam.

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