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Friday, March 27, 2009

BP, Stock Market Trends and Quantitive Easing / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009

By: Christopher_Quigley

For those wondering why the stock market has exploded they might be interested in studying the chart below. This sets out clearly the proposition that the market has a long term correlation to currency in circulation (CinC). With the "Quantative Easing" policy now firmly in place it is quite possible that the "old heads" about the market know of this relationship. Thus regardless of fundamental issues they may sense the groundwork being laid for a technical recovery based on finance alone. Time will tell.

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Friday, March 27, 2009

Stock Market Bottom Hopeful Signs- NOT! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Michael_J_Panzner

Although long-time Market Oracle visitors are likely familiar with the GAMCO Mathers and Ned Davis Research versions of the graph, Morgan Stanley has put together a more comprehensive and colorfully up-to-date rendition of the now (in)famous chart of total U.S. debt as a percentage of gross domestic product. As you can see, not much has changed over the past two years as far as our precarious financial condition is concerned. (Hat tip to Infectious Greed .)

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Friday, March 27, 2009

Bullish Formation for Financials XLF ETF / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Let's notice that for the past 5 sessions (while the SPY climbed 6.3%), the Financial Select SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLF) has traded in a well-defined sideways range at the high side of its March upmove. The pattern resembles a Bull Flag formation that should resolve itself to the upside in a thrust to new highs above 9.70 towards the 10.50/80 target zone. At this juncture, only a break below 8.70 will compromise my currently constructive scenario.

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Friday, March 27, 2009

The Stock and Commodity Market Rally's Million Dollar Question / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009

By: Chris_Ciovacco

The battle between current economic weakness and the Fed's programs are playing out in the currency, commodity, and stock markets around the globe. Since history tells us stocks tend to bottom before the economy, we should remain open to all possible outcomes, bullish or bearish, even in the face of serious systemic problems. In Reflation: Déjà Vu All Over Again? , we commented that the S&P 500's move through 806 sends a signal the markets are paying attention to all the Fed's "liquidity facilities".

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Friday, March 27, 2009

Is the S&P Stock Market Rally Real ? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: INO

Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what's the new analysis? Glad you asked!

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Friday, March 27, 2009

Stocks Bear Market Has Not Seen Its Bottom Yet / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: PaddyPowerTrader

As things stand, US equities are on course to complete the biggest monthly gain since 1987, with the S&P 500 closing up 2.3% yesterday. Big tech starred, with Intel up 5.9% and HP jumping 7.1%, pushing the Nasdaq to back to flat for the YTD - fairly remarkable. Sentiment continues to be boosted by an economic dataflow that is no longer weaker than expectations. Indeed some houses (Barclays for example) are squinting hard, thinking we have seen the trough and are even seeing the green shoots of recovery in the US. And I think that a better 7-year Treasury note auction (which went off at close to market expectations) helped too.

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Friday, March 27, 2009

Stock Market Rally Signals Economic Recovery / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: The recent stock market rally may not be a bear-market trap or a “dead cat bounce,” but may in fact be the first signs of dust from an oncoming and unexpected bull stampede.

In the face of gloom-and-doom predictions, rapidly rising unemployment, and an imploding economy, the market's strong rally clearly anticipates a recovery in late 2009.

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Friday, March 27, 2009

Stock Market Rally Remains Resilient / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Harry_Boxer

The indices had another very strong session and continue to act resiliently as the rally extends to 2 1/2 weeks. Yesterday's intraday sharp sell-off and late rally carried over as the indices gapped up at the opening, pulled back and retested the gap but held, and then the rally was on. They moved in a steady chop higher until mid-session when they finally pulled back, retested, but held support mid-afternoon. That resulted in a late snapback to close them near the highs for the day.

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Thursday, March 26, 2009

Stocks Bear Market Rally Nearly Over and Zimbabwe Economic Solutions / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Clive_Maund

The bear market rally in the broad US stock market is thought to have about run its course, although it could run as far as 900 on the S&P500 for reasons set out below. The rally had its origins in extremes of negative sentiment before it started, so that once it got underway it was fuelled by short covering and media hype, especially the Obama optimism effect. In particular the big jump on Monday was portrayed almost as the start of a new bull market. Actually, Wall St had good reason to celebrate on Monday, for as Dr Housing Bubble makes clear in his article Public - Private Investment Plan for Dummies , the PPIP as it is known is just another gigantic scam to funnel taxpayers money into Wall St's pockets.

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Thursday, March 26, 2009

Respect The Stock Market Rally Until Proven Elsewise / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Mike_Shedlock

Many seem to be in disbelief of this rally given the poor economic backdrop. However, technically the rally needs to be respected until proven otherwise. Let's take a look.

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Thursday, March 26, 2009

ETFs Crashing Into the Abyss – FAZ, RWR, IHF, ITA / Stock-Markets / Exchange Traded Funds

By: Oxbury_Research

Looking at some of the worst performing ETFs over the past four weeks, one can see that the more some trends change, the more others will stay the same.

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Thursday, March 26, 2009

Investing in China and Dow 10,000 / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Money_and_Markets

Larry Edelson writes: I'll start with just a quick update on the markets. But then I'm going to take you to a deeper understanding of one of the most important subjects of our time.

So, follow along with me …

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Thursday, March 26, 2009

Investing in Japan: Profit Play or Investment Trap? / Stock-Markets / Japan Economy

By: Money_Morning

Martin Hutchinson writes: Anyone who has ever visited Japan knows it to be a country where everything works beautifully - and with great efficiency. Right now, however, it's clear that something has gone horribly wrong there.

Japan's exports for February were down a shocking 49.4% on a year-over-year basis. The Japanese economy suffered a fourth-quarter decline of 3.2% - twice the decline of its U.S. counterpart - and is expected to drop by a similar amount during the current quarter.

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Thursday, March 26, 2009

Stocks Rebound In The Final Hour / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009

By: PaddyPowerTrader

Another wild ride yesterday on the stock market roller coaster. US indices closed higher, though that was only thanks to a last hour rally that took the S&P from a 1.8% loss on the day to a 0.96% gain by the closing bell. Equities started the session weaker because of a disappointing Treasury auction. But then the big gain came from Bank of America (though with its ratings downgraded by Moody's) after its CEO gave an interview to the LA Times in which he said he wanted to start repaying the government's $45bn of assistance in April. Although Goldman has already indicated it wants to get back on its own two feet already, this is the first of the banks that took significant funds from the Treasury to make that claim.

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Thursday, March 26, 2009

Sustainable Stock Market Rally Depends on Confidence Measures / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

It is important that confidence be restored for the recent stock market gains to be more enduring. A few comments regarding this issue are highlighted in this post. As shown in Sunday's “ Words from the Wise ” review, there is a strong historical relationship between the US Consumer Confidence Index and the 12-month change in the S&P 500 Index. One needs to take a view on the direction of consumer confidence, but should it for argument's sake pick up from 30 to 40 by the end of June, the relationship indicates a S&P 500 decline of 30-35% in year-ago terms. Using end-of-quarter prices, this means an Index at between 832 and 896 by mid-year.

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Thursday, March 26, 2009

Stock Market Rally, Was That the Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009

By: Q1_Publishing

An old friend of mine stopped by the office a few weeks ago and he unwittingly reinforced my complete confidence that you can still do very well in the markets. This is saying quite a bit given the frustrating state of the markets where government decree drives nearly all of daily trading activity.

Now, he wasn't overly bullish or bearish. He wasn't betting big on a rally with banks. And he didn't just make a huge score on some triple-leverage ETF or anything like that. He's simply running his business and, in the midst of the worst economic downturn decades, it's doing exceptionally well.

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Stock and Housing Market Long Waves / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations

By: Andrew_Butter

I got it - that's why Bernake (and Geithner) are flying the plane into the ground. The most common cause of air crashes is when pilots fly planes into the ground. The reason they do that is that they get confused about where they are. 23rd March 2009 Chairman Bernanke said that if a couple of trillion hadn't been thrown into the fire, then Plumber Joe (and sweet Mary Lou) would have lost 70% of their 401K by now not 40%; (and presumably their house too). Pity he didn't get around to that conclusion in early 2007 and cut rates to zero then, rather than hanging on for ages telling everyone that everything was under control "so as to instill "confidence"", I quote from his presentation to Congress in May 2007: " At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained”.

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Profit Taking Pushes Stock Markets Lower / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009

By: PaddyPowerTrader

Some profit taking after the stellar gains (panic buying) on Monday was always on the cards. The surprise to this writer was that the correction wasn't a tad deeper, with the S&P holding well above the key 800 level; mind you, financials were down 6.5% as the misplaced euphoria over Geithner's plan wears off. Energy stocks were also weak, as crude prices retreated and air carriers took a big hit on a trade group report predicting a cumulative $4.7bn loss for the industry in 2009.

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

A Stock Market Bottom, but Maybe Not The Bottom… / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: HRA_Advisory

The spring in the financial sector's step last week has some wondering if bottoms are finally forming in for the equities market. This is based on an assumption that weak banks couldn't get much cheaper and that, to Wall St 's way of thinking, a “real” bull rally has to be led by financials. Certainly its true there is much less $ (or £, or €) value that can be chopped off them than has already been. Early year profits indicated by some the larger and weaker US banks, and comment by US Fed Chairman Bernanke that the recession could be over by year's end if the banking sector stabilizes, also helped the cause.

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Late Sharp Pullback Closes the Stock Indices at Session Lows / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Harry_Boxer

The markets had a volatile session, most of it spent trying to take out the highs and lows and doing so unsuccessfully until the last 15-20 minutes of the day when the market rolled over hard and closed at the lows for the day. We weren't surprised based on the oscillators and overbought condition, as the pullback was needed , although it may last a few more sessions.

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