Best of the Week

Friday, September 19, 2008

GDX Gold Miners ETF Upside Potential / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Interesting action in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) today largely because it is getting the benefit of the lift in equities AND the relatively buoyancy of gold and euro/$ prices. Purely from a pattern perspective, the upleg from the 9/11 low at 27.35 to yesterday's high at 36.14 exhibits bullish form AND also argues that it has unfinished business on the upside for continuation into the 38.00-39.00 area prior to completion. As long as today's pullback low at 32.90 remains intact, the bullish near-term pattern remains intact and viable.

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Friday, September 19, 2008

Junior Gold Mining Stocks Crash Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks

By: Zeal_LLC

Commodities investors were treated to an extraordinary event this week when gold skyrocketed 11.1% in a single trading day! This was all the more impressive since everything non-commodities was getting crushed. That same day the SPX plunged 4.7%, erasing 1/20th of the US stock markets' value, for the second time in 3 days.

Having just weathered the biggest and meanest commodities correction of this entire secular bull, this week's surge was wonderfully refreshing. I suspect it will prove to be the vanguard of a major new upleg. But even if it is, a disturbing problem continues to vex the commodities realm. Small miners and explorers, the junior stocks, have long ceased participating at all in this bull market.

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Friday, September 19, 2008

The End of Central Bank Gold Selling? / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

We are close to the end of the fourth year out of the five years of the second Central Bank Gold Agreement in which a ‘ceiling' was placed on the sales of gold by the signatories to this agreement of 500 tonnes a year. This piece looks at the prospects for sales by these signatories in the final year of the agreement and the prospects of a third agreement, which would govern sales of gold in the ‘open' market.

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Thursday, September 18, 2008

Natural Gas Heading for Seasonal Low? / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chip_Hanlon

The following was posted on my blog, Hanlon's Pub , on Thursday morning: In mid-July, I warned that natural gas prices were likely to head lower under typical seasonal pressure, but how's it acting now?

At first glance it looks like gas may be making yet another late summer low, just as it has done in every normal year this decade. I say "normal" year because natural gas didn't make a late-summer low in '05, but that was due to Hurrican Katrina. Take a look:

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Thursday, September 18, 2008

Gold Soars to $893: Finally, the Wait is Over! / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: John_Lee

The financial crisis is fast unfolding as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual and Wachovia are joining Countrywide, Bear Stearns and company in their disappearing acts.

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Thursday, September 18, 2008

Gold Forecast Target $2,500 and Silver $250 / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Peter_Degraaf

That's ridiculous' I can hear someone saying. But is it really all that far-fetched?

Let's begin by adjusting the previous high gold price of $850 set in 1980, into today's dollar value. By using the US government's own inflation calculator (bls.gov/data/inflation-calculator.htm or simply Google ‘BLS inflation calculator'), we find out that gold should be trading at $2,260 to match the 1980 high of $850

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Thursday, September 18, 2008

Gold Mining Sector Rotation, $950 Gold Price Forecast / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks

By: Madison_Avenue_Resea

Commodities Commentary, The Slowing Dragon, and Gold Price Forecast - Madison Avenue Research Group's outlook for gold is bullish. Our sentiments echo Philip Klapwijk, Chairman of London-based research firm GFMS Ltd. at a conference in London today. Klapwijk said "We're expecting gold to stage a powerful rally in the fourth quarter” and believes gold may rise to US$950 an ounce by the end of year as central banks and miners hold back sales and investors buy the metal as a haven against falling stock prices.

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Thursday, September 18, 2008

Gold's Safe-Haven Status Confirmed / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL GOLD rose to $880 an ounce early Thursday – more than $100 above Wednesday's US opening – as world stock markets bounced on a "liquidity injection" of $242 billion from the big central banks, led by the Federal Reserve.

Wednesday's sudden 10% jump in Gold came after the US Treasury said it had recapitalized the Federal Reserve's own balance-sheet with $40 billion.

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Thursday, September 18, 2008

Gold Largest One Day Price Rise in History / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mark_OByrne

Gold and silver surged yesterday with gold up $69.30 to $847.30/oz and silver up $1.11 to $11.59/oz.

Gold surged by 8.9% to $847.30 (silver +10.6%) at the close in New York and continued to surge in electronic trading to over $870/oz. Asian trading saw the surge continue and gold traded as high as $893/oz. Gold subsequently fell prior to rising to some $870/oz as markets began trading in London. These are unprecedented movements and gold rose from a low of $780 to a high of $893 or more than 14% in less than 24 hours. There is some confusion but some analysts say this is the largest one day dollar price move since 1980 and some saying the largest ever.

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Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Gold Upside Acceleration on Fears of Banking System Collapse / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The big picture in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) shows today's powerful upside acceleration from 77.00 to 82.00 amidst very strong and confirming underlying daily momentum RSI readings. The pattern, momentum, and pervasive fear that the US banking system has been compromised is fueling the run into gold and gold stocks, at least for now. My next optimal target zone in the GLD is 83.50-84.50.

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Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Commodities ETF's Trading Freeze Due to AIG Fears / Commodities / Exchange Traded Funds

By: Mark_OByrne

Gold fell slightly yesterday with gold down $3.60 to $778.40 but silver again had sharper falls and was down 54 cents to $11.02. Gold has again traded sideways in Asian trading but has risen in early European trading to $780/oz.

Gold's wealth preservation qualities are being felt with the precious metal remaining resilient despite volatility and sharp sell offs in many other markets. Gold is only marginally negative(some -1%) in the last month despite sharp falls in the majority of stock markets. Thus the pattern seen in recent years when gold trades sideways to slightly down in the short term when equities sell off aggressively and then outperforms equities in the weeks following sell offs is being seen again.

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Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Gold Market Bull or Bear? / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: David_Vaughn

A Carnegie Mellon Professor gave what turned out to be his last lecture this past year. Professor Randy Pausch died just this last summer of cancer. His last lecture achieved remarkable attention. More than he ever expected. His principle theme in the lecture was advice to college students about how to pursue their career and attain their personal goals. The lecture was one of the most powerful given concerning offering hope and optimism. The message seemed to ignite over the Internet ultimately being heard by millions. Professor Pausch said that the lecture was primarily a message to his children to give them their fathers' testimonial before dying of cancer that he had been fighting for two years. 

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Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Gold Rises as Stock Markets Tumble / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

SPOT GOLD PRICES recovered an early 2.1% tumble on Tuesday, rising above $780 an ounce as Japan's Nikkei stock index closed almost 5% lower after Tokyo traders got back to work following a public holiday on Monday.

The Japanese Yen shot 3% higher on the forex market as "carry trade" debts – used to fund better-paying trades outside zero-interest-rate Japan – were pulled home in response to the weekend's demise of Lehman Bros. and Merrill Lynch, plus the ongoing threat of collapse at Washington Mutual and AIG.

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Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Gold and Silver Safe-havens in Face of Global Financial Meltdown / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mark_OByrne

Gold and silver rallied Monday as the crisis on Wall Street worsened with gold up $21.70 to $782 and silver up 28 cents to $11.02. Gold fell slightly in Asian trading but has risen in early European trading to $780/oz.

Gold's resilience is impressive considering the bloodbath seen in the oil pits where oil has fallen another 4% to below $92 per barrel (Light Sweet Crude Oil Future - Combined - OCT08). Other non currency commodities have also fallen sharply.

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Monday, September 15, 2008

Deleveraging Not Deflation Resulting In Commodities Temporary Violent Correction / Commodities / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Michael_Swanson

I went out of town last week to the Resource Investment Conference in Las Vegas. I'll get to that in a second, but so much is happening that this is going to be a longer message than usual. This weekend we are seeing Lehman go broke, Merrill Lynch in a desperate buyout, AIG try to fend of bankruptcy, and a frightening gap down in the market this morning. And of course last weekend we saw Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac get taken over by the government last Monday. That spurred a beefy gap up that immediately got sold - and that selling pressure sparked a cascade of selling, which in turned caused only what I can describe as a crash in gold stocks.

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Monday, September 15, 2008

Gold Spikes as Central Banks Unleash Emergency Funding / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

SPOT GOLD PRICES jumped 2.6% at the Asian opening on Monday but drifted back to $770 an ounce as world stock markets sank and money fled into government bonds following the overnight demise of two Wall Street giants.

Lehman Brothers – a major player in the commodity futures market – filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy just as the London Stock Exchange opened for business today, driving the FTSE100 share index more than 3.4% below Friday's close.

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Monday, September 15, 2008

Gold and Silver Rally As Financial Crisis Deepens / Commodities / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mark_OByrne

Gold and silver rallied Friday as the crisis on Wall Street deepened with gold up $17.80 to $759.80 and silver up 21 cents to $10.74. The rally continued in Asia overnight when gold surged more than $20 to over $785 before gradually giving up those gains in early trading in London. Gold's gains in Asia have been eroded as oil prices have fallen sharply (some 4%) and in extremely volatile trading the dollar has recovered sharply from steep overnight lows ( dollar has rallied 1.6% from 1.4478 to the euro to trade back up to 1.4250).

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Monday, September 15, 2008

Has SIlver 50% Price Crash Hit Bottom? / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Clive_Maund

It is not for nothing that silver is called "poor man's gold" for when the going gets tough it's the poor who disappear first under the wheels of the rich man's carriage. Thus, while the commodities rout has resulted in gold dropping by about a quarter from its highs, silver has plunged by a staggering 50%. In the last update we thought it had bottomed at about $12.30 as it was so oversold, but after a brief recovery rally it fell even further to an intraday low at about $10.20 on Thursday, hammered lower by continued dollar strength. Now, however, with signs that gold has hit bottom, or is about to, and good reasons to believe that the dollar is topping out, as set out in the Gold Market update, the savage decline in silver looks to have about run its course.

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Sunday, September 14, 2008

Gold Extremely Oversold Suggests Imminent Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Clive_Maund

A confluence of factors suggests that we have just seen the bottom in gold and silver, or if not that the bottom is very close. The last update called the bottom too early as renewed dollar strength resulted in another downleg in the metals. After the recent heavy losses it may come as something of a surprise to many that the long-term chart for gold still looks positive, with the drop looking like a fairly normal correction.

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Sunday, September 14, 2008

Agri-Foods the Strategic Long-term Investment / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

What happens when bad weather and a structural uptrend come together? The aftermath of Hurricane Ike may give us some insight. This week's chart is of global rice stocks. Rice, as we know, is an important food in many countries around the world. While rice stocks have improved, current stocks are equal to little more than two months of global consumption.

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