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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Sunday, June 07, 2020

When People Riot, Should We Call Military or Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Could 2020 end, please? The pandemic is not over and the US suffers now from mass riots across the country. They could aggravate the coronavirus crisis and increase the demand for gold.

On May 26, a black man, George Floyd, was killed by the police in Minneapolis, Minnesota. During his arrest – he allegedly used earlier a $20 counterfeit bill in a nearby store – the police officer put a knee on Floyd’s neck on the ground, although the arrestee was not aggressive and repeated several times that he could not breathe.
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Commodities

Sunday, June 07, 2020

Precious Metals Complex Big Picture / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

From the March 23rd low in the PM complex we’ve enjoyed the first easy part of this rally that should have many years to run yet. Every bull market will consist of an impulse move followed by a consolidation period, rinse and repeat until the bull market ends with some type of reversal pattern. Normally in a secular bull market the turning points will generally be very large to buildup the energy to advance to new highs.

The current 2nd leg up in the secular PM complex bull market actually began in January of 2016 after the first leg up ran from 2000 to 2011. There was a cyclical bear market within the secular bull market that ran from the 2011 high to the January 2016 low. It’s important to understand which part of a bull market one is in as to not get confused on what may lay ahead.

Tonight I would like to show you some long term quarterly line charts that I use when looking for big chart patterns that usually show up at important long term reversal points that can take years to complete. I usually only post these charts just a couple of times a year as change comes very slowly but when change does come it’s important to pay close attention because the change usually represents a major trend change.

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Commodities

Friday, June 05, 2020

Potential Highs and Lows For Gold In 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

DOWNSIDE POSSIBILITIES FOR GOLD PRICE

There is a correlation of gold’s increasing price relative to the declining value of the US dollar. The chart (source for all charts) below shows this inverse relationship clearly…

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Commodities

Friday, June 05, 2020

Tying Gold Miners and USD Signals for What Comes Next / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The precious metals sector was likely to decline, and it did exactly that. And based on what we just saw, it’s likely to decline even more.

Once again, the situation yesterday and so far today developed quite in tune with what we wrote yesterday, so today’s analysis will take form of a broad update. Let’s take a look at the GLD ETF. In yesterday’s and Monday’s analyses, we described it in the following way:

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Commodities

Friday, June 05, 2020

Gold’s role in the Greater Depression of 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Raymond_Matison

The most important measure for an economy, its recovery or advancement is employment - that is, the availability of good-paying jobs.  When citizens have jobs, they earn an income with which they can pay for their needs, and pay taxes to the government for its needs.  So jobs and income, are the key determinants of a healthy, modern consumer-driven economy.  Over the last several decades business owners, globalists and bankers utilized foreign wage, borrowing cost, environmental and regulatory advantages to close production facilities in the U.S., moving thousands of factories and jobs to Asia.  This job migration decision can be reversed at any time; however, it will take as many decades to bring jobs back to the U.S. as it did to move them overseas.  Therefore, it will take many years to reverse this unfortunate U.S. worker-discriminating decision.  As an unfortunate result, we are now to experience the consequences of a depression (a long lasting recession) instead of a recession.

Some economic observers and pundits have already publically stated that we are now in an economic recession. Official acknowledgment would require the passage, retrospectively, of two quarters of negative GDP growth to confirm this.  However, considering all that has transpired since the beginning of this year in our country, admitting that we are now living in a recession is not a particularly bold projection.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 03, 2020

Covid, Debt and Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Precious metals are loving the uncertainty the coronavirus has created. 

Despite limited successes some countries have had with reopening, the virus is nowhere near contained. As of this writing, close to 6 million worldwide are infected and 365,328 have died. The important columns in the table below from the heavily visited Worldometer's coronavirus page, are the yellow and red. 

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 03, 2020

Gold-Silver Ratio And Correlation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

From Investopedia:

Correlation is a statistic that measures the degree to which two variables move in relation to each other. Correlation measures association, but doesn’t show if x causes y or vice versa, or if the association is caused by a third–perhaps unseen–factor.”

In order for correlation to exist, there must be fundamentals that directly connect the two items being compared.

For example, there is a possible correlation between localized, bad weather and crop failures. But how do you predict the timing and extent, or the effects, to a degree that can be profitable?

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 02, 2020

Silver and Gold: Balancing More Than 100 Years Of Debt Abuse / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the stock market has outperformed Gold and Silver significantly. Here is a great chart (from longtermtrends.net) that proves this:

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Commodities

Saturday, May 30, 2020

Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Last week, the FOMC released the minutes from its last meeting. What implications do they carry for the gold market?

FOMC Finally Acknowledges the Situation As Serious

Last week, the FOMC has published minutes of its meeting from April 28-29. They show that the Fed reassessed the coronavirus economic implications since the previous meeting at which the central banks did not yet grasp the full gravity of the situation. This time, they acknowledged that “the second quarter would likely see overall economic activity decline at an unprecedented rate.” Indeed, as we reported many times, the GDP will collapse, while the unemployment rate will soar to the levels not seen since the Great Depression.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 28, 2020

Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

The China virus, the economic lockdowns, and the multi-trillion-dollar rescue efforts of central bankers have dominated markets over the past three months.

However, as lockdowns gradually lift and the 2020 election draws nearer, investors will begin to focus more on political developments.

The once-strong economy that President Donald Trump had hoped would propel him to re-election has collapsed. The President has also taken a tremendous amount of heat from the media over his handling of the COVID-19 crisis, and that has hurt his poll numbers.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 28, 2020

Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

When the economic crisis hits, the first instinct is to analyze the previous catastrophes to learn what to expect from and how to handle the current calamity. So, not surprisingly, many analysts have already pointed to the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) as the most relevant example. However, is really the current coronavirus recession similar to the Great Recession? Let’s compare these two big crises and draw investment conclusions for the gold market!

First of all, in terms of scale and pace of the decline, the current crisis is much broader and deeper. It hits practically the whole globe, not only advanced countries, and it affects all offline sectors, not just the financial sector and construction. And in just four weeks, 22 million of Americans made claims for the unemployment benefit. For comparison, during the Great Recession, 37 million unemployment claims were filed. But the Great Recession started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, so it lasted one year and half. When it comes to output, the cumulative decline in the real GDP amounted to 4 percent during the Great Recession. Meanwhile, just two months of mitigation measures are estimated by some economists to shrink the real US GDP by 10 percent. Even the overly optimistic IMF expects that the US economy will shrink 5.9 percent this year.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

Though gasoline demand remains historically weak, commuters are beginning to head back to their offices, opting for the isolation of their personal vehicles and abandoning public transit, reports McAlinden Research.

Saudi Arabia enhanced their commitment to OPEC+ supply cuts as the Kingdom said they'd shut production of additional 1 million barrels of crude oil per day next month. Most of the OPEC+ countries have already come close to compliance with the deal that took effect this month and cuts from non-member states like Norway, Brazil, Canada, and the US are compounding the already steep curbs on production. Though gasoline demand remains historically weak, commuters are beginning to head back to their offices, opting for the isolation of their personal vehicles and abandoning public transit.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

The silver market is on the move. In fact, it’s finally moving out ahead of other precious metals and showing some real leadership.

After the panic selling of March briefly brought spot silver below $12/oz, prices have since surged by 50%. That’s an impressive move to take place within the span of just two months.

The question for investors now is whether the recent rally in silver is fleeting or sustainable – whether it’s evidence of extreme market volatility that suggests more danger ahead or the first leg of a much larger bull market to come.

In our view, there is good reason to believe that the March 2020 lows will never be violated and that silver is therefore in a structural bull market.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

Before we look at tonights charts I would like to go over some challenges that we’ll face as the current impulse move in the PM complex continues to move higher. It’s not everyday that you will find yourself getting in close to the bottom of a multi month rally. One of the biggest problems I’ve witnessed over the years, especially with PM stock investors, is they grow complacent as the rally phase starts maturing. They believe they are invincible as their profits rise and everything is right with the world. That complacency usually means not getting out close to the end of the impulse move which is extremely hard to do even if you’re looking for a top. They will either sell in panic as the correction takes hold or hang on to their positions during the entire correction which is emotionally hard to do.

I know many here traded in the 2000 to 2011 bull market in the precious metals complex. During that great bull market how many actually made any serious money? By making serious money I mean actually taking it out of the market to payoff debt or take a major vacation or help someone in need or whatever to actually use it. What the markets give us during the impulse rally will usually take it back during the following consolidation phase as investors aren’t aware of what is taking place until it’s too late. It’s just the nature of trading the markets.

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Commodities

Monday, May 25, 2020

Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

This week, Powell gave a long television interview and a testimony to the Senate. What groundbreaking did he say, and what do his remarks imply for the gold market?

Powell Gives Interview and Testifies
Powell dominated media news this week. On Sunday, the Fed Chair gave an interview to CBS news magazine “60 Minutes,” while on Tuesday, he testified before Congress. What did he say? In an interview, Powell tried to persuade viewers that the Fed has not exhausted its powers to help the economy: “we’re not out of ammunition by a long shot (…) So there’s a lot more we can do to support the economy, and we’re committed to doing everything we can as long as we need to”. But are you really so powerful, if you need convince others that you are powerful?

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Commodities

Saturday, May 23, 2020

Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Submissions

The move of a lifetime is just beginning!

The senior mining companies have led this rally for the past year. In the metals sector you get leadership rotation from bullion, silver, senior miners, and junior miners. Silver and the junior miners have yet to break out of their 2016 highs, but it's coming. We believe the junior miners will be next and break through the elusive $52 level.

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Commodities

Friday, May 22, 2020

Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

To be bullish or not to be – that is the question. Or it might have been the question, if someone named Shakespeare wrote a piece titled Investhamlet.

The choice whether to be bullish or bearish or neutral on a given asset should be made each day, each time based on the information that is currently available. Let’s check the new signs that we saw yesterday.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 21, 2020

Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This week has been a wild and emotional one and it’s just started!

With Monday’s big pop in the stock indexes, the big rally was based on vaccine news and bullish comments from the fed, convincing most traders and investors to be overly bullish this week.

My volume flow indicator showed a reading of 10 all day yesterday, which means ten shares were being bought on the NYSE at the ask, to everyone share being sold at the bid. Any reading over 3 is considered bearish short term, so ten was extreme. After the pop on Monday, stocks/indices closed lower by 1-2% on the session respectively the following session.

I have reiterated over and over, big moves (and gaps) in the price in the stock indexes that occur from the news are generally given back within a few days. This is still what I feel is going to happen in the coming days, albeit the last hour on Tuesday may have started that retracement.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

In my previous article, I’ve written about how important US dollar movements are for future Silver prices. The chances of a significant Silver rally during US dollar strength is very low; and it is very high during US dollar decline.

The structure of the Silver bull market since 2001 has a lot in common with that of the 70s bull market. However, one of the important differences pertains to US dollar movements.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

WARNING: Shady “Rare” Gold and Silver Coin Dealers Are Circling Like Vultures / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Nervous investors have been pouring into the gold and silver markets over the past two months.

Money Metals Exchange is proud to have helped almost 20,000 new customers with a precious metals purchase in recent weeks, many of whom came over from other dealers struggling with inventory shortages and ridiculous delivery delays.

A new wave of investors is getting the message; the Federal Reserve will never stop printing currency units and punishing savers with lower interest rates, Congress will never put deficits under control, and the government-terminated U.S. economy may not recover for years.

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