Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, November 16, 2020

You May Have Overlooked These “Sleeper” Precious Metals / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets got off to a rocky start this week as Wall Street celebrated promising developments on the vaccine front.

On Monday, stocks surged while gold and silver sold off hard. That selling didn’t bring downside follow through, however. The metals held trading range support levels and pared some of their earlier losses heading into this Friday the 13th.

A metal we don’t often talk about traded up to an amazing record high earlier this week. The noble metal rhodium made palladium look dirt cheap by comparison – commanding as much as $15,000 per ounce.

Sunday, November 15, 2020

What's Ahead for the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, look at the macroeconomic factors they believe will move gold higher. The gold market entered a period of increased volatility during the third quarter, usually a positive indicator for the metal. A growing number of investors and analysts recommended the accumulation of gold as it began to move out of the shadows and into the spotlight. Global ETFs have now been net purchasers for 11 months in a row and central banks have also been net purchasers every month of this year except October when two nations liquidated some of their holdings to meet dollar requirements resulting from the COVID-induced economic crisis.

We see a further move higher in gold in the near term as the election log jam begins to clear. The election process curtailed new fiscal stimulus since July when direct transfers to individuals exhausted their Congressional approvals. This pause in fiscal stimulus, which took government transfer payments to an astonishing 25% of household income, coincided with a pause in gold's upward momentum. However, it is very clear that further stimulus is favored on both sides of the House and even a Republican Senate, if there proves to be one, will not prevent trillions more of fiscal stimulus.

Sunday, November 15, 2020

Gold’s Momentous Rally From 2000 Compared To Stock Market SPY & QQQ / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

My research team and I went off on a wild tangent trying to identify how the markets could react to the recent spike in price activity on Monday, November 9, 2020.  This is the day that Pfizer announced a 90% effective rate with its new COVID-19 vaccine, causing the US stock market to skyrocket higher before the opening bell in New York. As with most pop-and-drops, this incredible upside spike trailed lower for the remainder of the trading day.  My research team was curious if this type of setup presented any real future outcome or trends.  To this end, we focused on the QQQ and the SPY in relationship to Gold.

9 to 9.5 year Gold Depreciation Cycle Ended in 2018 – what’s next?

Gold has been and continues to be a store of value for many around the world. At some times in history, Gold becomes undervalued in comparison to other assets (like stocks, real estate, and other tangible assets).  At other times, Gold becomes more highly valued in comparison to other assets.  This cycle has taken place throughout hundreds of years of history, and is rooted in the changing perceptions of market participants regarding “what/where is true value in the markets”.

Friday, November 13, 2020

Is Silver Leading Bitcoin or is Bitcoin Leading Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Is silver leading Bitcoin or is Bitcoin leading silver? Well, it depends on which time framing one is looking at.

On this chart comparison below, silver appears to be leading the way higher compared to Bitcoin:

Thursday, November 12, 2020

Will COVID Vaccine Kill Gold and Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth looks into what Pfizer and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine efficacy announcement could mean for gold and silver.

Believe it or not, the big deal for precious metals this week was not the U.S. election.

It was news that Pfizer and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine was over 90% effective in preventing the virus, and would likely be among the first to receive FDA authorization.

Monday was massively risk-on, with the Dow soaring 4% to a new record high, ten-year treasuries yields shot up almost 17% in a single day as investors dumped bonds, and oil was ahead 8%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index gained about 60 basis points or 0.65%, while higher-beta currencies jumped.

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Gold Stocks Post 2020 US Election Outlook / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

We last wrote to you roughly ten days ago.

We concluded, “It appears GDX and GDXJ will test their September lows at $37 and $52 reasonably soon. Should GDX & GDXJ break those lows to the downside, then we should get ready to buy.”

GDX and GDXJ did break their September lows but only for a day. They closed below those levels on October 29 and then gapped down the next day. 

But as it stands, that gap lower figures to be the low in price for this correction. 

The best sign for the sector is the technical outlook for the Dow Jones US Gold Mining Index, which is weighted heavily towards the largest handful of companies in the industry. 

Monday, November 09, 2020

Silver Price Is Trapped Below $30 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Below is a chart (source) showing a 10-year history of silver prices. The prices are adjusted for inflation…

Monday, November 09, 2020

Will Coronavirus Second Wave Boost Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Brace yourselves, winter is coming! This is what Ned Stark in the Game of Thrones told his people to prepare them for the leaner times he saw coming. While one of the biggest threats in GOT were the White Walkers, in our reality, the pandemic is again the greatest danger. As the chart below shows, the second wave of the coronavirus infections is no longer a mere possibility – it’s happening all over the Europe and in the United States (although in the latter country, we could also say about one big wave or three waves). In particular, in France, Italy, Spain, the UK, and in the US, the number of daily new confirmed Covid-19 case per million people has soared much higher than the levels recorded in the spring. And we’ve just entered autumn, with winter yet to arrive.

Friday, November 06, 2020

It Has Been Decided: Silver Is Going Much Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

The currency markets have just announced what is coming for silver. This was explained in my previous article.

The USD/ZAR ratio has now broken down. This sets silver up to finish the year with a very strong rally:

Thursday, November 05, 2020

Is Gold the Only US Election Winner? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The elections are behind us. However, the official results are still not definite. What does it mean for gold prices?

Ladies and Gentlemen, the new President of the United States is… still unknown! The election results are not available, as some states are still counting the votes. The race is very balanced, with few states remaining too close to call. At the moment of writing this report, Joe Biden leads the White House race with 253 electoral votes, while Donald Trump has 213 electoral votes. So, Biden is more likely to become the new POTUS . However, with those few states officially still undecided, Trump could still win. Hopefully, we will get some of the results later today, but it might even take several days to count the ballots in some locations.

Wednesday, November 04, 2020

Gold Price Slides after US Elections, but before Results / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In Monday’s analysis , I wrote that the market situation is likely to become more specific right before, during, and perhaps shortly after the U.S. presidential elections . And by “specific”, I mean that the markets could begin moving against their previous trends.

Well, that’s precisely what we’ve witnessed so far. The overnight volatility is significant as the markets try to estimate the election outcome, with the odds keep changing quickly. Let’s start today’s market examination with the USD Index.

Wednesday, November 04, 2020

A Golden Election Promise / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth explains why he believes gold will be the biggest winner in the election.

There's no shortage of prognostications or conjecture about the U.S. election.

Of course, everyone has an opinion.

Some like red, some like blue, some like neither.

Last week's volatility in stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities is a clear signal that markets are uneasy. They hate uncertainty.

If the election's outcome is less than clear, then volatility will be around for a while, and probably even intensify.

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

Determining the Crude Oil Price Next Big Move / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil started this week with a bearish price gap and a breakdown below the September and October lows. This is an extremely valuable indication. The black gold seems to have finally decided what the next big move is going to be, and by breaking lower, it effectively “agreed” with our expectations.

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

As China goes green, Copper market expected to tighten further / Commodities / Copper

By: Richard_Mills

The most pessimistic forecasts of copper demand, and pricing, during the worst pandemic in 102 years, have failed to materialize.

From a four-year low in March, when the coronavirus slammed into Europe and North America, the red metal used widely in construction, communications, transportation and energy transmission, has mounted a serious comeback.

As of this writing spot copper is trading at $3.08 per pound, compared to around $2.10/lb in mid-March – a gain of 46%. The spot price has stayed above $3.00 since Oct. 8 – which is remarkable considering the reports of impending economic doom, amid a second wave of covid-19 infections in Europe and North America.

The following analysis by AOTH has copper showing no signs of slowing down; in fact, while the copper market was tight before the pandemic began, we expect it to tighten even further, due to a constellation of factors, starting with China.

Monday, November 02, 2020

Gold Investors Should Look at Past Elections / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Election Day has finally arrived. Who will win, and why gold will remain the biggest winner of them all?

So, today is the day! It's Election Day. For quite some time, national polls indicate that Biden has a significant advantage . He is also polling scarcely close ahead of Donald Trump in key battleground states, but, in some states, the lead has recently narrowed. So, in many places, the race is still too close to call, making them toss-up states. Hence, although according to political pundits, polls, and bets Biden will become the next POTUS, anything could happen .

And we mean - anything. Everyone knows that back in 2016, Hillary Clinton also led in the polls. However, Trump won the election, to everyone’s surprise. Of course, the polling methodology has been improved since. But now, Biden has a much wider advantage than Hillary did in 2016, and he is much more conservative and more moderate in his approach than Clinton (historically, more moderate presidential candidates generally do better in presidential elections).

Monday, November 02, 2020

Silver Junior Miners Reach Flag Apex Just Before US Elections / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Heading into what will likely become one of the biggest events in American political history on November 3, the US stock markets are holding up quite well on Monday, November 2.  My team and I have published a number of articles recently suggesting we believe wild price swings and increased volatility is to be expected before and after the US elections.  We have even suggested a couple of stock trades that we believe should do fairly well 60+ days after the elections are complete.  Right now, we want to bring your attention to the Silver Junior Miners ETF (SILJ).

The current Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up in SILJ on the following Monthly chart has peaked our attention.  Diminishing volume and moderately strong support above the $12 price level suggest key resistance near $15.05 will likely be retested as metals and miners continue to attract safe-haven capital after the elections.  The Apex of the Pennant/Flag formation appears to be nearly complete – a breakout or breakdown move is pending.  We believe the uncertainty of the elections will prompt a possible breakout (upside) price trend in the near future.

Sunday, November 01, 2020

Natural Gas Is on the Rise—And Huge Gains Could Be Lurking in This Dead Sector / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: The_Energy_Report

Independent financial analyst Matt Badiali explains why he expects natural gas to rebound and discusses six potential investments.

The oil price gets all the press. The price of a barrel collapsed during the Covid-19 lock down. Companies went bankrupt in droves. Now, the industry turned to mergers to survive.

Investors fled. The sentiment turned awful. No one cares about oil anymore. The future is electric cars…peak demand is right around the corner.

Right or wrong, the oil industry is deep in a bear market. And that brings opportunity.

For example, one unintended consequence to this collapse is a major decline in natural gas production. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, we haven't seen this big a drop in natural gas production since 2008.

Sunday, November 01, 2020

Gold Stocks Continue To Disappoint / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Apparently investors don’t tire of hearing the same old thing; and their advisors willingly provide the same questionable advice: “The best way to play this new bull market in gold is to buy gold stocks” or something to that effect. Are gold stocks a better choice than golditself? Let’s find out…

Four years ago, in 2016, I wrote the following:

“This year’s turnaround in gold mining shares had helped to buoy the hopes and dreams of investors who were ‘betting’ that their long, agonizing wait for euphoric, exponential gains is over.  They continue to believe that the future for the Gold Mining Industry is quite rosy. Unfortunately, they are probably wrong.” (see Gold Mining Shares Are A Lousy Investment)

Just prior to that article being published, the HUI gold stock index had peaked at almost the 300 mark after tripling in price from the 100 level earlier that year in January.

The rise in share prices of gold stocks outstripped the increase in physical gold prices quite handily. Gold, itself, rose from $1070 to $1370 for a gain of twenty-eight percent. That’s nice, but not nearly so nice as the two-hundred percent gain in gold stocks.

Saturday, October 31, 2020

Gold Is the Winner of the U.S. Presidential Election / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, says it doesn't matter if the U.S. sees a Red victory or a Blue victory in the presidential election; gold will be the real winner. In this far-ranging interview with Streetwise Reports, he discusses gold's prospects post-election, inflation, stock market performance, criteria to evaluate mining companies, and companies in U.S. Global funds.

Streetwise Reports: Frank, let's begin with gold. After a substantial rise in the price of the metal earlier this year, which went as high as $2,036 an ounce in early August, it has since been trading sideways, consolidating roughly around the $1,900 mark. What effect do you think the U.S. presidential election will have on the price of gold? Do you see different scenarios based on which candidate wins?

Frank Holmes: Well, you can hit the red button or the blue button, but I'm hitting the gold button, no matter which one it is. You have to sit back and look at macro forces and macro themes to understand gold and the drivers of gold.

Saturday, October 31, 2020

Gold and Silver Prepare For Another Price Advance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we continue to near the November 3rd election day, Precious Metals have continued to trade within a narrow range suggesting price support is staying strong. It is my belief that potential downside risks for Gold and Silver will be relatively short-lived after the election.  We believe the broad market decline witnessed on October 26, 2020, where the Dow Jones fell over 700 points, coupled with the fact Gold and Silver barely budged throughout the selloff, suggests support for Precious Metals has reached a “battle line”.

My research team has highlighted the current support and resistance price levels for both Gold and Silver on the charts below.  We believe the initial support levels will hold up well throughout the pending election and that an upside breakout in both Gold and Silver are likely outcomes after the elections.  Global traders and investors have already likely hedged their portfolios accordingly to attempt to eliminate risks, yet the fear of what is not known is one of the main drivers of appreciation in Precious Metals.