Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, October 06, 2008
Financial Crisis Turning into a Real Economic Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: Everyone has been acutely focused on Washington — specifically, if and how the financial industry will get bailed out. The Senate voted to approve a revised $700-billion bailout package, one that's packed with all kinds of fresh pork and new tax cuts. And it looks like the House may finally get on board, too.
But the real fireworks aren't in D.C. — they're in the REAL economy. It's looking like a total disaster in the making. Just consider what we learned this week:
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Monday, October 06, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Oct 6-10) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of October 6-10 will see a light week of economic data that will be dominated by the Tuesday FOMC minutes from the September 16 meeting and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke speech that same day. Other data to be released during the week will be the Wednesday pending home sales report for August and the weekly initial claims data on Thursday. The week will close with the publication of the August trade balance and the September import price estimate. Depending on events over the weekend out of the US Congress and perhaps the Fed, the market conditions may see a bit of volatility during the early part of next week over economic concerns and redemptions in the hedge fund community. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 05, 2008
The Deepening Economic Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: David_Vaughn
We definitely live in interesting times, huh?
I believe future historians will allocate Monday, September 29, 2008 as the start of the second Great Depression. That is not to say we may yet see exciting corrections and even occasionally a stronger US dollar. Still, the ultimate trend is down, down, down.
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Sunday, October 05, 2008
Soaring Unemployment, Brace for Massive Job Losses / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Main Street and Wall Street both better be bracing for layoff because they are coming. I talked about that a bit in Jobs Contract 9th Consecutive Month . Mass Layoffs Rise
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Friday, October 03, 2008
Bailout Bill Passed, What Happens Next, Inflation or Deflation? / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Mike_Shedlock
Congress passed a $700 billion bailout package today. It was a total and complete waste of $700 billion. It further depletes the pool of real funding. Yes, the Fed has started a monetary printing campaign. Yes, the SEC will suspend mark to market accounting. So what happens now?
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Friday, October 03, 2008
How To Protect Your Wealth During This Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Emanuel_Balarie
It is often in the midst of economic despair that wealth is both made...and lost. While history often focuses only on the financial loss that transpires during recessions, it is also important to point out that these types of market environments have also provided individuals with the opportunity to make money.
Consider, for instance, some of the biggest companies we have today. Microsoft was started during the recession of 1975, Hewlett-Packard was born during the Great Depression, Disney was founded during 1923, and GE started during the panic of 1873. The founders of these companies were all able to thrive during times of economic turmoil.
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Friday, October 03, 2008
US Payrolls Signalling Recession and US Interest Rate Cut / Economics / US Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
September payrolls fell by 159K, worst decline since May 2007, while the unemployment rate held at 6.1%. Although unchanged, the unemployment rate is widely expected to breach above the 6.3% rate in coming months, which would be the highest jobless rate since 1994. Our long held base call of 50-bps easing before year-end is now completely priced in the market, with about 55% chance of the cut emerging before the October 29 meeting. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
Anatomy of Financial and Economic Disaster -Part1 / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Andy_Sutton
For a minute, let's forget about all that has happened in the past year. Forget about the signing of the bailout into law. Let's forget about the failure of some of America 's most iconic Wall Street firms. Let's forget about the insolvency of Fannie, Freddie, and FDIC (yes, they're broke too). Let's forget about Northern Rock, Countrywide, and AIG. They are all but casualties and symptoms. They are not the problem. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
US Non-Farm Payroll Jobs Contract for 9th Consecutive Month / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise.
Seasonally Adjusted
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Thursday, October 02, 2008
US Employment Picture: September Non-Farm Payrolls Forecast / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The upcoming release of the September non-farm payrolls report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not provide much comfort to the market or the public. Our forecast implies that payrolls will decline -105K and that the rate of unemployment will increase to 6.2% for the month. The strike at Boeing and the displacement of workers in the Southeast due to the twin hurricanes that hit the area during the sampling period should send the headline estimate of job losses above the recent trend. The risk for the report is to the downside and we do expect that the rate of job destruction will increase in the coming months. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
US Economic Data and Events for September 30, 2008 / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
* The failure of the TARP on the floor of the House of Representatives has moved action towards overnight trading in Asia and early morning action in Europe. With the credit markets currently jammed up, volatility should be expected to shape the overnight action and the direction of US markets in early morning trading Tuesday.
• News flow will provide direction for the markets as Congress dithers over what action to take to stem the tide of the growing crisis. It does appear that the plan in its current form, or in another, will not be resubmitted to House until Thursday at the earliest.
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Tuesday, September 30, 2008
What's Next After the Bailout Plan? / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
This article was written just prior to the announcement of the rejection of the bailout bill but has been qualified to reflect current conditions. Celebrate today's victory! It is a victory for all of us, whether we know it or not. Much thanks to Ron Paul and all the brave souls both Republican and Democrat who withstood their party's commands and instead sided with us, the people of the United States of America ! Darryl Robert Schoon
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Monday, September 29, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (Sept 29-3rd Oct) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of September 29-October 3 will see very important data that will provide information on the condition of the consumer and the labor sector. The major data risk for the week will occur with the Monday release of the August personal and income statement and the Friday publication of the September estimate of non-farm payrolls. We look for modest declines in real spending and a loss of -105K payrolls with the unemployment rate increasing to 6.2%. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 26, 2008
Horrid US Economic Data on Housing Market, Jobs and Durable Goods / Economics / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are looking at weekly unemployment claims . In the week ending Sept. 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 493,000, an increase of 32,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 461,000. It is estimated that the effects of Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana and the effects of Hurricane Ike in Texas added approximately 50,000 claims to the total. The 4-week moving average was 462,500, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised average of 446,500. The spin above blames hurricanes. I do not buy it, at least to the extent claimed. The fact of the matter is this economy is rapidly falling apart.
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Friday, September 26, 2008
US Budgetary Consequences Of The Financial Crisis Bailouts / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The consequences of the troubled asset relief program (TARP) will be felt for a number of years. The death of the investment-banking model, the transformation of the domestic system of finance and the coming wave of regulation of what is left of Wall Street will have far-reaching consequences. This, however, will take much time to absorb and assess. What is of immediate concern, is how the proposed $700 billion TARP will impact the budget outlook for fiscal year 2009. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Euro-zone Economy Sinking Fast Towards Recession / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
A month ago, two of our favorite leading indicators for the Euro-zone economy were pointing to a slowdown but not an outright stop, and we were still hopeful that signs of recovery could be cropping up by the end of this year. One month on, the outlook has deteriorated.
Germany's Ifo business climate index for September - a poll of around 7,000 firms - deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month, coming in at 92.9 (94.8 in August). The gauge of current conditions dropped to 99.8 (103.2 in August) and the expectations index slipped to 86.5 (from 87.0), its lowest level in 15 years. The overall index is still above the lows recorded in late 2002, the last time Germany was headed into recession.
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Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Bernanke, Paulson and the US Government Following Eggertsson Buy High Policy / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Mick_Phoenix
An Occasional Letter From The Collection Agency - It is time for a short update to the series of artices that started with The Future Actions of The Federal Reserve And US Govt Are Known
Many people have been wondering what the cost of all this intervention may be. I firmly believe that Bernanke, Paulson and the US Government are following the ideas laid out in Eggertsson's work "An interpretation of The Deflation Bias and Committing to Being Irresponsible".
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Tuesday, September 23, 2008
What Next For the Real Economy? / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Kurt_Kasun
The Economist Magazine posed this question on the cover of this week's magazine with an illustration of the various pieces of Wall Street machinery being sucked into the vortex of a tornado. The market appears to have stabilized which was the intent of Secretary Paulson in the unprecedented actions he took last week. What comes next for the bailout plan are more goodies from Congress. Why stop at $1 trillion? What comes next for the real economy is going to be the aftermath of this Pyrrhic victory the Fed, SEC, and Treasury jointly scored last week in preventing financial Armageddon. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (Sept 22-26) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of September 22-26 will see a modest week of US macro data. However, given the dislocation in the markets, the upcoming week will provide a test to see if recent steps taken by global central banks and the immanent mergers of large financial's can inject a measure of confidence and stability into markets. The major data releases for the week will be the publication of the existing homes sales and new home sales data for August on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. The durable goods report will be released on Wednesday and the weekly jobless claims report will be published on Thursday. The week will conclude with the final estimate of Q2'08 GDP and the consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 19, 2008
Potential Economic Fallout From Credit Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The events of the past seven days have altered the shape of the market and will impact the economy going forward. The current financial crisis reflects the failure of firms to deleverage in an acceptable period of time. The inability or unwillingness to accept the terms of re-capitalization offered troubled institutions has set in motion the financial train wreck of which we all bear witness. While growth over the past year has exceeded the very low expectations set by the market, the risk to economic output over the remainder of the year is to the downside. Read full article... Read full article...