Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Retail Sales to Suffer in 2009 as U.S. Consumers Cut Spending / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Jennifer Yousfi writes: Retail experts are predicting one of the most dismal holiday shopping seasons in decades this year – a crucial stretch that will set the stage for poor retail sales throughout 2009. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 28, 2008
Bankrupt Britain Trending Towards Hyper-Inflation? / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The mainstream media is increasingly full of stories of either Britain going bankrupt or the coming deflation associated with the recession. Whilst both are now obvious given the economic data and government actions however what is missing from the headlines is that under the weight of the exploding public sector debt mountain, deflation will fast turn towards hyper-inflation as the government literally prints money in ever more panic measures aimed at turning the economy around. Many of the readers of my articles over the last year at Market Oracle will have seen this trend unfold as sustainable amounts of borrowing exploded into unsustainable liabilities due to the collapse of the bankrupt banks. Therefore this article seeks to analyse how Britain has come to towards an increased risk of bankruptcy and what action can be taken to avoid a currency collapse that is the consequences of state bankruptcy.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 28, 2008
China Panic Interest Rate Cut as Job Losses Soar / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Telegraph is reporting China slashes interest rates as panic spreads . Factory workers surround a damaged police car during a protest outside Kai Da toy factory in Dongguan, China. Photo: REUTERS The People's Bank of China cut interest rates by more than 1pc point as the economy crumbles and millions of jobs are predicted to go ahead of Christmas.
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Friday, November 28, 2008
Bernanke's Deflationary Tactics and The Risk of Collateral Damage / Economics / Deflation
By: Brady_Willett
After General Bernanke Destroys The Deflationary Threat -
“…we will not stand down until we have achieved our goals of repairing and reforming our financial system, and thereby restoring prosperity to our economy.” Ben Bernanke. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
How John Lee Would Clean Up the Financial Mess and Put $800 billion to Work (Part I) / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: John_Lee
The Fed and US Treasury announced today a further plan to buy up to $800 billion of mortgage backed securities. This is in addition to the $700 billion financial bail-out package announced in September. In just past 3 months, over $1.5 trillion has been committed to help home owners and solve financial crisis.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Failed Fiat Monetary System Heading for Rampant Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Clive_Maund
Paulson's favorite song: "I wish it could be Christmas every day" - well it can be thanks to the Fiat money system...
So the trough is about to be refilled, this time with even more feed - $800 billion to be precise. Thanks to the Fiat money system this extra liquidity can simply be created out of thin air, all it takes is a few keystrokes. The cost could be passed on to the taxpayer via higher taxes, but they might balk at this so it's better to stealthily get them to pay for it by diluting the purchasing power of their money.
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Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Keynes, Gold and Jubilee 1935 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Adrian_Ash
"With John Maynard Keynes feted by governments once more, would you dare to guess how desperate things must become before a true revolution in policy becomes possible...?
THE SUN SHONE BRIGHTLY on London for the silver jubilee of King George V as if to spite him. For it rarely smiled on his reign.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Deepening Recession in Germany and Across the Euro-zone / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
The European Central Bank (ECB) will be cutting its refi rate again next week (December 4), the only question being whether the policymakers will opt for a third consecutive 50bp reduction, or bite the bullet and make a larger cut. Last week various Governing Council members were making it clear that they expect a 50bp easing, but after this morning's data releases some may argue for a more significant move. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Inflation is No Cure for a Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Michael_Pento
There are some in our government who claim that we face a possible depression if we do not engage in a massive amount of deficit spending and money printing to resurrect the economy. The prescription is intended to cure the credit crisis by forcing banks to step up their lending practices. In their inability to accept or understand the cause of our current crisis in the first place, however, we face increasing odds of a depression as our fearless leaders fight this recession with yet more of the disease itself: inflation .Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Black Friday Approaches for Retailers as Holiday Shopping Season Begins / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: As Thanksgiving approaches, the American people should be thankful for the declining gasoline prices that help enable many of them to afford holiday travel this year. Speaking of the holiday, after the traditional bird has been devoured, one additional time honored tradition remains – shopping. The Friday after Thanksgiving, known as “Black Friday,” represents the official start of the holiday shopping season. Historically, it is the day that retailers moved out of the “red” (losses) and into the “black” (profits).Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 24, 2008
UK Government Debt to Double, Tax Rises to Follow Tax Cuts / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Alistair Darling's emergency tax cutting budget revealed the true extent of anticipated government borrowing that looks set to take official public sector next debt smashing through £1 trillion, this despite the fact that the official data ignores the £500 billion bailout of the banks. The government also announced fantasy growth forecasts that stated that UK GDP growth would return to trend growth of 2.5% per annum by 2011, this leaves more probable forecast growth rates of 0.6% for 2010 far behind and opens up a potential black hole in Britain's finances that implies that actual official government borrowing will be some 50% higher than today's electioneering budget's forecasts.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 24, 2008
UK Emergency Tax Cuts to Get Consumers Spending / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Later today, Alistair Darling the Chancellor of the Exchequer is expected to announce a series of emergency tax cuts aimed specifically at consumers to get them spending again as the retail sales market falls off the edge of the cliff following hard on the heels of the crash in the banking system that required an emergency £500 billion bailout to prevent a catastrophic collapse of the financial system. This was followed by an emergency 1.5% interest rate cut at the November Bank of England MPC meeting and therefore sets the continuing scene of emergency near panic actions aimed at two primary goals.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 21, 2008
The Truth About Bailouts / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Peter_Schiff
As the Federal bailout bonanza prepares to spread beyond the mortgage and financial sectors to fill Detroit's depleted coffers, few economic or policy analysts have spared a thought for the destitution of the U.S. government itself. Put simply, our government doesn't have enough spare cash to bailout a lemonade stand let alone a bloated and failing industry that is losing tens of billions of dollars per month. Washington can only offer funds that it has borrowed from abroad or printed. Unfortunately, the nation is in the grips of a delusion that money derived from these sources has the power to heal. But history has clearly shown that borrowed or printed money only has the power to destroy.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 21, 2008
The Global Financial System is Coming to an End / Economics / Financial Crash
By: Dr_Janice_Dorn
I don't have to tell you how awful things are. People all over the world are frightened. Many are panicking. Most are confused and don't know where to turn for guidance or help with their money and their future. Since January 1, 2008, stockholders of U.S. corporations have suffered about $8 trillion in losses, as their holdings declined in value from $20 trillion to $12 trillion. Homeowners will soon see their equity down by as much as $8 trillion, and those losses are likely to increase. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 21, 2008
Manipulated Inflation Statistics An Undisclosed Act of Treason / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Rob_Kirby
For those of you who are unfamiliar with the work of John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics fame; this missive should prove to be quite an eye opener. For those who are familiar with Williams' work – this is nothing more than logical extension[s] and conclusions.
Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, ***** laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth 's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.
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Friday, November 21, 2008
Financial System Crisis, Stay Focused on the Big Picture / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Chris_Galakoutis
In these trying times it is critical that we remain focused on the big picture and stay true to our convictions; one can always revisit their reasoning and conclusions, like I do, but I would hope that at this stage many of you have done so as well, so that our minds are not treated like a flimsy ship in rough seas. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 21, 2008
World Economic Demand is Collapsing / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Christopher_Laird
World economic demand is now collapsing along with the yearlong credit collapse. Recent news is full of stories about how world economic demand fell off a cliff in October, 08. Every sector is being hit, from new cars to recycled cardboard. In each case, October is pointed to where economic demand fell off a cliff… Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 21, 2008
Global Economy is Being Sucked into a Black Hole / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
"The Winter of 2008-2009 will prove to be the winter of global economic discontent that marks the rejection of the flawed ideology that unregulated global financial markets promote financial innovation, market efficiency, unhampered growth and endless prosperity while mitigating risk by spreading it system wide." Economists Paul Davidson and Henry C.K. Liu "Open Letter to World Leaders attending the November 15 White House Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy" Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Keynesian Economics- Revenge of the Barbarous Relic / Economics / Deflation
By: Kurt_Kasun
Marc Faber's latest report written on November 1 was titled “Why Market Interventions by Governments worsen Economic and Financial Conditions!” I might have called it "Vengeance of the Barbarous Relic". John Maynard Keynes granted gold with this pejorative, giving license to governments to intervene, print, and distort to their heart's content. In the long run we are all dead...right? Wrong! The long run is now and the chickens are coming home to roost. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 20, 2008
UK Real Retail Sales Deflationary Trend Continues / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The official monthly retail sales data again demonstrated the inbuilt trend inaccuracy by reporting just a 0.1% drop for October 2008, up 2% on the year and in the face of the UK economy slumping fast into recession. Whilst the mainstream media mistakenly jumps on the smaller than expected decline, I refer readers to the two graphs below, one of the official retail sales data and the second of the inflation indexed and trend adjusted retail sales which more accurately reflects the current true state of distressed retailers than the month to month gyrations of official data that proves so confusing to mainstream market watchers. Read full article... Read full article...