Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 02, 2009
False Deflation Diagnosis and Gold Bullish Crossover Signal / Economics / Inflation
By: Jim_Willie_CB
One of the most bothersome questions from 2005 to 2007 used to be whether the Untied States would ultimately submit to inflation or deflation. This is actually the wrong question. Many analysts in my view are incorrect in their conclusion that the US suffers from a powerful deflation episode, since they endorse the wrong definition, confuse effect with cause (as usual), do not properly monitor the money flow, and then draw improper conclusions from prices. They suffer from a type of Keynesian Tunnel Vision. They are confused, and fail to adapt certain key measures after the financial sector highjacked the entire national system in the last two decades. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 02, 2009
U.S. CPI Inflation Turning Negative, Deflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
" Owners' Equivalent Rent " (OER) is the largest component in the government measure of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). OER is a process in which the BEA estimates what it would cost if owners were to rent the homes they own from themselves. I do not believe this to be a valid pricing barometer.By ignoring housing prices, CPI massively understated inflation for years. The CPI is massively overstating inflation now.
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Tuesday, December 30, 2008
UK CPI Inflation, RPI Deflation Forecast 2009 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation for November as measured by the CPI continued its sharp decline, falling by 0.4% to 4.1% from the peak of 5.2% for Septembers data. The Bank of England would have been aware of the sharp fall in Octobers inflation at the earlier November MPC meeting that saw an near unprecedented panic interest rate cut of 1.5%, followed by a further 1% cut in December that has taken UK interest rates sharply lower from a peak of 5% in early October to stand at just 2% today. The interest rate cuts have been accompanied by BOE statements that UK economy is expected to contract by 2% GDP during 2009, that puts the UK on target to experience a worse recession than that of the early 1990's. However as my earlier analysis suggested that the UK could experience a decline of as much as 3% for 2009 which would make this recession just as bad if not worse than that of the early 1980's which wiped out much of Britain's manufacturing base. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
China Imports Crash by 17.9% in November / Economics / China Economy
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
I realized today that if demand for goods from developed nations like US is truly falling faster than demand for goods from emerging markets, then the best place to verify this trend would be to look at what's happening with China's imports. With this in mind, I looked up this Herald Tribune report about an unexpected drop in China's imports and exports . Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 29, 2008
U.S. Federal Budget Deficit to Exceed $1 trillion in 2009 / Economics / US Debt
By: Hans_Wagner
Investors trying to beat the market and learning to invest need to consider the impact of the large budget deficits now being considered by the U.S. government. The incoming administration and the new congress intend to spend a lot of taxpayer money to stimulate the economy and fund their programs. This will drive up the already high U.S. deficit now over $10 trillion, or more than $33,000 for each man, women and child in the U.S. So will the contemplated deficit spending do the job or just increase the debt of everyone? Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 29, 2008
There's No Pain-Free Cure for Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Peter_Schiff
Belt-tightening is required by all, including government. The following are excerpts from my article that ran in the Wall Street Journal on the 27th of December. The piece considers why unlimited government activism to fight the intensifying recession is so universally appealing.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 29, 2008
Great Depression 2009 Similarities to 1930's / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: I have just received a series of urgent questions about the massive crisis swirling all around us. So to help you prepare for 2009, I am going to give you my best answers right here and now. First, though, an important reminder: December 31 — this coming Wednesday — will be your last chance to sign up for Jack's new landmark recommendations aiming for high double-digit returns early in the new year. Plus, it's the last day you can save $295 before a price increase that goes into effect on the dawn of January 1. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 29, 2008
Krugman Still Wrong on the Economy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Shedlock
Krugman seems particularly proud of a piece he wrote a decade ago. His new remake, Hangover Theorists , is as wrong now as it was then. Let's take a look.
The hangover theory , which I wrote about a decade ago, is still out there. The basic idea is that a recession, even a depression, is somehow a necessary thing, part of the process of “adapting the structure of production.” We have to get those people who were pounding nails in Nevada into other places and occupation, which is why unemployment has to be high in the housing bubble states for a while.
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Sunday, December 28, 2008
Obama's Spending Spree Won't Rescue the US Economy from Recession / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Gerard_Jackson
In the past I have referred to Obama as an intellectual sponge, one of those people -- of whom there are a great many -- who soak up the ideas that are fed to them. Having absorbed them they then unknowingly find himself unable to learn not only from their own mistakes but also the mistakes of others. This is more than plain enough in Obama's adoration of FDR and his determination to follow in his dismal economic footsteps. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Deflation Inflates Global Bond Bubble / Economics / Bond Bubble
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): US Q3 real GDP remains unchanged “The final estimate of third quarter GDP was unchanged at a 0.5% drop. The minor revisions show consumer spending and non-residential investment slightly weaker than the preliminary report, government spending was marginally stronger, and residential investment expenditures fell less rapidly.
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Sunday, December 28, 2008
Global Economic Structural Changes – A Quantitative approach / Economics / Global Economy
By: Econgineers
Proposed Study - Global Economy Many structural changes in the global economy are due to the rise of emerging markets. In this study we will discuss structural changes in economies, debate and propose a quantitative approach to identify possible trading opportunities.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Credit Crisis 2008 Ends as Economic Crisis of 2009 Begins / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Investors spent the holiday-shortened Christmas week in an un-merry mood, digesting more gloomy economic data and taking stock of a tumultuous 2008.
With the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index down by 35.8% and 40.6% respectively for the year to date, many investors would be anxious to wave the old year goodbye. But changing the calendar digits from '08 to '09 will regrettably not make an iota's difference to the perilous nature of the investment environment facing investors as we usher in the New Year.
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Saturday, December 27, 2008
Unemployment Prevention- Companies Implementing Unpaid Vacations and Four Day Weeks / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes: The U.S. unemployment rate, currently at a level of 6.5%, could rise to 8% next year . But it could also find a ceiling sooner than expected, as more companies implement unpaid vacations and four-day workweeks to preserve jobs.
The U.S. recession may just now be entering full swing, but storm clouds have been gathering for more than a year and many companies have already trimmed payrolls. Now, the goal for many companies is to prepare for an economic rebound by finding ways to keep the their skilled productive labor intact.
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Saturday, December 27, 2008
Asian Economic Crisis of 2009 / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Mike_Shedlock
Asia Economic Crisis: Spotlight on Japan, China, Korea, Vietnam. Decoupling, an idea that never made any sense, is talking another beating. Bad news is coming from multiple places in Asia, with Japan and China leading the way. Let's take a look starting with Japan's Recession Deepens as Factory Output Plummets . Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 26, 2008
US Economic Output vs Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
Whether prices rise or fall depends on what is happening with a nation's economic output and money supply. If one is growing/shrinking proportionally faster than the other, you get inflation/deflation. For example, if the money supply is growing faster than economic output (what happens during normal economic times), you get inflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 26, 2008
U.S. Recession 2009 Depth Analysis / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: What Shape Will the U.S. Recession Take: U, W or ‘Bloody L?’ Right now, the conventional wisdom seems to be that the United States is looking at a "U-shaped" recession and recovery. Output declined gently in the third quarter, is dropping sharply now and will continue dropping sharply in the first and possibly the second quarter of the New Year, finally bottoming out and beginning a slow recovery thereafter. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 26, 2008
Fiscal Insanity Virus Strikes Canada, Sweden, Italy, IMF / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Mike_Shedlock
The world health organization has confirmed new cases of the extremely contagious Fiscal Insanity Virus (FIV) that is rapidly spreading the globe. Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is one of the latest victims as evidenced by the headline Flaherty gives banks deadline to lend more . Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Higher Wages or Bubblenomics: What's it gonna be? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
Wages, wages, wages. It all gets down to wages. A strong economy must be built on a solid foundation of steadily rising wages. If wages don't keep pace with production, the only way the economy can grow is through the expansion of debt, which leads to disaster.
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Wednesday, December 24, 2008
U.S. Economy GDP Contracts by 0.5% in Third Quarter / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Mike Caggeso writes: The U.S. economy shrank 0.5% in the third quarter, marking the slowing pace since 2001 and continuing a still deepening recession that has wrung the markets since last year.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Inflation Deflation Switch Turns Entire Investment World Upside Down for 2009 / Economics / Investing 2009
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: The Fed, the Treasury and all major governments on the planet are throwing the kitchen sink at this debt crisis.
But their efforts are being overwhelmed by a monumental sea change — the shift from rising prices to falling prices, from booming asset values to crashing asset values, from wealth creation to wealth destruction , from inflation to deflation.
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