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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Bernanke, Paulson and the US Government Following Eggertsson Buy High Policy / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Mick_Phoenix

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAn Occasional Letter From The Collection Agency - It is time for a short update to the series of artices that started with The Future Actions of The Federal Reserve And US Govt Are Known

Many people have been wondering what the cost of all this intervention may be. I firmly believe that Bernanke, Paulson and the US Government are following the ideas laid out in Eggertsson's work "An interpretation of The Deflation Bias and Committing to Being Irresponsible".

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Economics

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

What Next For the Real Economy? / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Kurt_Kasun

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Economist Magazine posed this question on the cover of this week's magazine with an illustration of the various pieces of Wall Street machinery being sucked into the vortex of a tornado. The market appears to have stabilized which was the intent of Secretary Paulson in the unprecedented actions he took last week. What comes next for the bailout plan are more goodies from Congress. Why stop at $1 trillion? What comes next for the real economy is going to be the aftermath of this Pyrrhic victory the Fed, SEC, and Treasury jointly scored last week in preventing financial Armageddon.

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Economics

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (Sept 22-26) / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe week of September 22-26 will see a modest week of US macro data. However, given the dislocation in the markets, the upcoming week will provide a test to see if recent steps taken by global central banks and the immanent mergers of large financial's can inject a measure of confidence and stability into markets. The major data releases for the week will be the publication of the existing homes sales and new home sales data for August on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. The durable goods report will be released on Wednesday and the weekly jobless claims report will be published on Thursday. The week will conclude with the final estimate of Q2'08 GDP and the consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan.

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Economics

Friday, September 19, 2008

Potential Economic Fallout From Credit Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe events of the past seven days have altered the shape of the market and will impact the economy going forward. The current financial crisis reflects the failure of firms to deleverage in an acceptable period of time. The inability or unwillingness to accept the terms of re-capitalization offered troubled institutions has set in motion the financial train wreck of which we all bear witness. While growth over the past year has exceeded the very low expectations set by the market, the risk to economic output over the remainder of the year is to the downside.

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Economics

Friday, September 19, 2008

United States Economy Stares Into the Abyss- Debt, Velocity of Money and Ethics / Economics / US Debt

By: Brian_Bloom

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe idea that the US Government can “bail out” those whose financial failure seems likely to trigger an implosion of the derivatives market needs to be seen in light of two factors:

•  Debt. Historically, as debt levels have grown, this has given rise to inflation.

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Economics

Thursday, September 18, 2008

UK Retail Sales Rise 1.2%, Real Retail Sales Fall 1.3% / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe official monthly retail sales data again demonstrated the inbuilt trend inaccuracy by reporting a 1.2% rise in August 2008, up 3.4% on the year and in the face of the UK economy slumping fast into recession. Whilst the mainstream media mistakenly concentrates on explaining why retail sales rose, I refer readers to the below two graphs, one of the official retail sales data and the second of the inflation indexed and trend adjusted retail sales which more accurately reflects the current true state of distressed retailers than the wild month to month gyrations of official data that literally switch between boom and bust statistics on a monthly basis.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Frozen Capital Markets and Stock Holder Capital Destruction / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mick_Phoenix

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecap of the scenario: bubble, easy money, inflation in fiat money supply, inflation in commodities and hard assets, inflation, fear of inflation, rising rates, YC inverting, flattening, rising and inverting again, tightening, withdrawal of liquidity, corrections, crashes, talk of stagflation, FEAR, withdrawal of speculative funds, further corrections and crashes, demand collapse.......Deflation.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Is the United States In Recession? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAt every FOMC meeting this year at least one voting member has dissented from the majority. The dissenter or dissenters either objected to the federal funds interest rate reductions implemented earlier in the year or wanted to increase the interest rate when the majority voted to keep the rate unchanged. The major reason for these FOMC dissents was a belief that Fed policy was too accommodative and, thus, would fan the flames of consumer price inflation. On the eve of the September 16 FOMC meeting, we believe that it is time for these FOMC hawks to “eat crow.”

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Economics

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

UK CPI inflation Soars to 4.7%, Paralysis at the Bank of England / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK CPI inflation hit 4.7%, soaring onwards and upwards towards 5%, which triggers another letter from the Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King explaining why he has again failed in the BOE's primary objective of controlling inflation to below 3%. Inflation has been driven higher by food and energy costs that despite crude oil and natural gas price falls has seen clear profiteering amongst energy and gas supply companies lifting consumer energy prices by over 30% in recent weeks which and contrary to the industries propaganda machine is not reflected in the forward gas market prices for winter 2008, therefore triggering a potential windfall tax of at least £1 billion which could be announced at the Labour party conference this week.

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Economics

Monday, September 15, 2008

The REFLATION Dam Has Burst! Monetary Flooding Anticipated… / Economics / Liquidity Bubble

By: Ty_Andros

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOh what a two weeks it has been. It is a CHALLENGING task to figure out the latest FINANCIAL and Geopolitical curveballs that need to be interpreted. The activity in the last two weeks is EXACTLY why the “Crack Up Boom” series has continued. They stepped over the line with Bear Stearns (they had to) and the next dominoes to fall have done so. As Fannie and Freddie continue on the path to their demise, and that of the US dollar, the money printing now must go into a gear that is feared by the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve.

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Economics

Monday, September 15, 2008

United States to Pay the Price of Nationalization / Economics / Government Intervention

By: John_Browne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast week, the U.S. government took the unprecedented step of effectively nationalizing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  Together, the two companies hold or guarantee some $5.2 trillion, or about half, of all American residential mortgages.  A substantial portion of this debt is tilting toward default.  Given the size of the numbers, American tax payers should be very concerned. 

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Economics

Monday, September 15, 2008

US Trade Deficit Myths Busted / Economics / US Dollar

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJack Crooks writes: The public is consistently fed doomsday scenarios from sources that absolutely should not be ill-informed, including the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.

These guys should be the most informed bunch of all. But many are dead wrong when it comes to the U.S. current account deficit and its doomful impact on the U.S. dollar.

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Economics

Sunday, September 14, 2008

America 's Financial Apocalypse Heralds Decade Long Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Mike_Stathis

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDespite attempts made by Greenspan and Bernanke, there is no way to avert the payback period that has been building for over two decades. Over this stretch, America has consumed much more than it has produced. As a result, both consumer and federal debt have ballooned to record levels. And now, the payback period is upon us. The bailout buffet won't end with Fannie and Freddie. There's a lot more where that came from because the “Fed's food court” remains open, as does that of the U.S. Treasury. In fact, the autos are in the process of being bailed out with $50 billion in “loans.” I expect the airlines to also receive some form of a bailout as well.

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Economics

Friday, September 12, 2008

XL's Spreadsheet Fails to Addup / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleXL, Britain's third largest tour operator went bust today leaving more than 90,000 holiday makers stranded across the globe and another 200,000 with advance bookings facing a loss. The company was forced to call in the administrators this morning after last minute financial backing talks failed.

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Economics

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Greenspan Most Responsible for Credit Crisis Should Get Lost / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Stathis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMr. Greenspan, you have been the individual most responsible for the current crisis; a crisis which commenced only a few years after you tried to minimize the dotcom collapse, which of course you also created. By flooding the banks with ridiculously low interest rates you thought this Ponzi scheme economy could run on worthless money forever. But when you saw the end was coming, you quietly made your exit.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

US Dollar Rally Signals a Severe Deflationary Depression / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Kurt_Kasun

Extraordinary Measures Today, a Financial Funeral Tomorrow - Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI wish I was referring to Fannie and Freddie in the title of this piece, but because those institutions are being resurrected, the funeral I am waiting for is the one for our entire fiat-based system. We are now on the brink of a collapse in confidence that brings the whole world financial system to its knees. Each market intervening action is becoming more extraordinary. The rallies which pull the suckers in following the intervening actions are becoming briefer and less powerful. I expect this one to be no different. This sequence has now become a broken record. Markets threaten to take out technical support levels and the government comes to the rescue. Armageddon is avoided until another day and a relief rally ensues on the belief that the government has fixed the problem a new bull market can begin. After all, this is how investors have been conditioned over the last three decades.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

UK Hiring Intentions Lowest In 9 Years: Manpower / Economics / UK Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

In Hiring Intentions Lowest In 17 Years I spoke on the Job situation in the US.

This post is about job prospects in the UK and worldwide. Please consider UK Jobs outlook weakest for nine years .
The outlook for the UK jobs market is the weakest for almost a decade with employers freezing new recruitment as business confidence plummets, according to worldwide research published on Tuesday.


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Economics

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

US Hiring Intentions Lowest In 17 Years: Manpower / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

MarketWatch, citing data from Manpower, is reporting Glum outlook on jobs .
Unless you work in the oil, gas or related mining industries, the job market is unlikely to look brighter in the fourth quarter, and even retailers are glum about hiring for the upcoming holiday season, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.


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Economics

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Debt Deflation Turning Economic Democracy Into a Financial Oligarchy / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Whitney

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAn interview with Michael Hudson, former Wall Street economist specializing in the balance of payments and real estate at the Chase Manhattan Bank (now JP Morgan Chase & Co.), Arthur Anderson, and later at the Hudson Institute (no relation).

On Friday afternoon the government announced plans to place the two mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, under “conservatorship.” Shareholders will be virtually wiped out (their stock already had plunged by over 90 per cent) but the US Treasury will step in to protect the companies' debt. To some extent it also will protect their preferred shares, which Morgan-Chase have marked down only by half. 

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Economics

Monday, September 08, 2008

Paulson's Actions Herald the Financial Collapse of the American Economy / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Peter_Schiff

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, the man who said that subprime was contained and that the Bazooka in his pocket would never be used, now assures us that the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be costless to taxpayers. Despite the near euphoria that the plan has sparked on Wall Street, the move will go down in history as the biggest policy blunder of all time, and will be credited as a pivotal point in the financial collapse of the American economy. The ultimate cost to Unites States citizens will be in the range of hundreds of billions of dollars, perhaps more.

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