Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Deflation Scare the Perfect Camouflage for Inflationary Money Printing / Economics / Stagflation
By: Chris_Galakoutis
It is said the market can sniff out prospective problems and price itself accordingly. If so, then someone needs to get this dog some nasal spray, lickedy-split! The deflation scare currently hovering over the entire market, particularly in the metals and commodities sectors, has been brutal. But the key question today is whether this “scare” will evolve into a genuine deflation threat to the US and the world? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 17, 2008
Reduced Gasoline Prices Provide Economic Relief, But May Not Change Consumer Outlook / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Gasoline prices have seen a steep decline over the past three months. Since hitting a peak on July 20, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline has declined 52 cents, which should inject approximately $120 to $130 billion into the pocketbooks of consumers, with more expected on the way.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 17, 2008
U.S. Worsening Economic Outlook / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_J_Panzner
This morning, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia announced that its general economic index for October fell from 3.8 in September to a much worse-than-forecast minus 37.5, the lowest level in nearly two decades. That follows yesterday's news that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's general economic index declined to a record low of minus 24.6, also below expectations. Together with another regularly updated index, the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank's manufacturing sector activity survey (October data has not yet been released), these indicators seem to make it clear that the economic outlook remains bleak. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 16, 2008
U.S. Economy Still on Life Support / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Browne
On Monday October 13th , the Dow took the fifth biggest upward leap (in percentage terms) in its history and, most notably, since the 1930's. It appeared that Paulson and his fellow G-7 finance ministers had solved the credit crisis. Despite the fact that G-7 taxpayers will be stuck with $3.5 trillion of liabilities to support their governments' bailout plans, the stock markets nevertheless bustled with euphoria. The next day, reality dawned once again, and all markets closed down. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Credit Crisis Bailouts Will Prevent Recession But Not Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Hans_Wagner
The rescue plan is now law. You might be wondering how this $700 (actually $850 billion) rescue plan will help improve the economy and help you beat the market. The credit markets remain tight and they are having repercussions across the US economy and throughout the world. Now that the government has arrived to help, will it work? Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Central Banks Fail to Solve Credit Crisis / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Christopher_Laird
Depression on the way - A few weeks ago, I mentioned that the central banks had put up collectively $3 trillion worth of stimulus/backing to financial markets. I also noticed that the big bailouts had about only a one day boost to the financial markets till they did a thumbs down. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Baltic Dry Shipping Collapse Sign of Consumer Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Baltic Dry Shipping Index covers dry bulk shipping rates and some view it as a proxy for general economic health. The index continues to collapse. Baltic Dry Index
Notice that the indicator is back at levels not seen since 2005 and is below levels seen in 2004.
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Wednesday, October 15, 2008
UK Unemployment Soars by 10%, Forecast to Rise to 2.5 million / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK unemployment as measured by the labour market survey surged to 1.79 million, up 164,000 for the quarter to July 2008, which clearly does not take into account the economic meltdown since August 08, nor the subsequent financial sector crash that witnessed bank after bank go bust and falling into the arms of the state or state sponsored rescue packages both of which are resulting in huge job losses in the financial sector. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
The U.S. Housing Market Economic Double Negative Feedback Loop / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Andrew_Butter
Perhaps the time for self-delusion is passed. The grand new plan, just replaced the $700 billion plan, that replaced the $80 billion plan to bail out AIG, that replaced the Bear Stearns bailout which was just pocket change.
Forgive me for being skittish but it seems like every time you blink the number goes up by a factor of ten. The way it looks now is that combined USA , Europe and UK , the damage could easily be $7 trillion.
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Wednesday, October 15, 2008
US Economic Data and Events for October 15th, 2008 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Day In Review:
• US announces $250bln plan to rescue banking system and FDIC stated it would fully guarantee newly issued, senor unsecured debt from select banks
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Tuesday, October 14, 2008
UK CPI Inflation Explodes Higher to 5.2% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The inflationary spike higher continued on release of September's inflation data which saw the CPI measure burst through 5% to hit 5.2% from 4.7% the month before. CPI crossed above the RPI inflation measure for the first time in 7 years which now stands at 5%, as the below graph illustrates.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 13, 2008
How Central Banks Destabilized the World's Economies / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: Gerard_Jackson
The crisis that America finds itself in is not political in origin nor can it be laid at the feet of any individual or party. The whole world, including Europe, is experiencing a massive monetary disruption. Moreover, it is not the first time that the world has been shaken by a financial crisis. It happened in 1824 and it happened again after WW I. What is depressing is that though these crises have but one single cause today' s central bankers and legions of economists find themselves utterly clueless, readily taking as a causes those data which are in fact symptoms of a very deep monetary disorder. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 13, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Oct 13-17) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of October 13-17 will see perhaps the most important week of macroeconomic data and Fed talk of the year. The weekend of Oct 10-12 will see the G-7 meeting in Washington where finance ministers will attempt to formulate a common policy to stem the damage to global financial markets. We expect them to consider guaranteeing all term lending at the meeting. The statements of Fed Chair Bernanke and ECB President Trichet can be expected to support whatever important decisions are arrived at the G-7 meeting. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Banks to Avoid as Iceland Goes Bankrupt with £10 billion of UK Deposits / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Relations between Britain and the small north atlantic government of Iceland hit a new deep freeze following Britain's implementation of Anti-terror laws to seize the assets of Icelandic financial institutions in Britain following the Icelandic Government's statements that they would not live up to their obligations in recompensing UK depositors.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 10, 2008
If You Listen to Economists… You WILL Go Broke / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Stathis
Before I begin, I recommend you bookmark my archive on this site so you can easily find my new posts http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Mike_Stathis.html Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 10, 2008
How to Save the U.S. Economy / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Richard_C_Cook
The crashing stock market has given its verdict. The financial rescue plan currently being implemented by the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve System will fail to revitalize the producing economy, even with continued interest rate cuts. This is because the banking system is essentially a supply-side, trickle-down mechanism with a currency based on a pyramid of bank lending and debt. All the current plans being suggested by economists and others to save the financial system by varying degrees of tinkering are useless. Similarly useless is the pumping in of credit or liquidity by Treasury or the Federal Reserve because it is no more than new debt to roll over old debt. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Primary Preconditions for Deflation and Economic Depression / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
The following was adapted from Bob Prechter's New York Times and Amazon best seller, Conquer the Crash – You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression .
Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit (and its flip side, the assumption of debt).
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Thursday, October 09, 2008
United States Dragging the World into a Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mike_Whitney
Stocks fell sharply across Europe and Asia last night following another down day on Wall Street where the Dow Jones lost 508 points and the S&P 500 slipped below the 1,000 mark for the first time since 2003. Japan's benchmark index, the Nikkei, lost nearly 10 percent while shares in London at one point slumped more than 7 percent. Trading was suspended in Indonesia and Russia where stocks fell 10 percent each on opening.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Recession Signals: Industrial Production September Decline / Economics / Recession
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
While, the service sector does account for well over 80% of overall economic activity, industrial production often provides a very timely indicator implying the end of the business cycle and the onset of a recession. The pro-cyclical nature of the report provides a well-timed and sensitive indicator of the current rate of growth in overall output. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
America's Financial Apocalypse Economists Need to Sit Down and Shut Up / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mike_Stathis
I'm really sick and tired of these economists out there who continue to claim that America will not enter a depression. These are the same bozos that have yet to acknowledge the fact that the U.S. is in a recession and has been for several months now. In fact, as I have previously mentioned, I can make a very strong case that the U.S. has been in the early stages of a silent, modest depression for at least two years; at the very least a protracted recession masked by credit. After the appropriate adjustments have been made for GDP, the U.S. economy has had no more than 3 to 4 quarters of GDP growth since 2005. Read full article... Read full article...