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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, May 22, 2009

Investors Should Seek Maximum Safety in U.S. Treasury Bill ETF's / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRon Rowland writes: I’ve just finished reading Martin’s new book, The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide. I highly recommend it. Martin says — and he’s exactly right — that the safest place in the world for your money is U.S. Treasury bills. In his book you’ll find a very handy list of money market funds that invest strictly in short-term Treasury securities: No commercial paper, bank notes, or other risky bonds.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 22, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Bear Market Picking Up Steam? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pollaro

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAt the risk of repeating myself, this author is bearish on long dated US Treasuries.  Yes, despite the best efforts of the Fed to monetize the federal government’s ballooning borrowing needs and hold long rates at bay, this author is bearish on long dated US Treasuries. 

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Barrons on U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Bursting / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis is the second cover story in 5 months for Barron's on the bursting of the bubble in Treasury yields. I have been closely following the yield on the 10 year Treasury since December, 2008, and I would agree that Treasury yields are ripe for a secular trend change. However, this won't be confirmed until there is a monthly close over 3.43% in yield.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Recovery from Deeply Oversold Levels / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The bond market recovered from deeply oversold levels last week.  Former support at 3% on the 10 Year Treasury Note will be the first major resistance level to watch.  The yield curve on the other hand maintained its steepness as yields declined across the maturity spectrum.  The economic data might look good from far but it is far from good so the main concern for the bond market is not an imminent recovery but a continued deterioration of the credit quality of government bonds as more and more of the excesses of this enormous credit bubble continue to migrate from the private to the public sector.  Look for real yields to expand.

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InvestorEducation

Friday, May 15, 2009

Dangerous Treasury Bond Bubble / InvestorEducation / US Bonds

By: Marty_Chenard

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs reported two weeks ago: spreads had been sending a caution sign for the risk of yields rising.  That has been happening, and the 30 year yields are rising ...

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 15, 2009

Non-Existant U.S. Economic Recovery Bullish for Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGiven that Bernanke's green shoots are withering on the vine it was a sure bet that someone else would find another feel good term to describe what is essentially not happening. That term is "pre-recovery".

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Interest-Rates

Monday, May 11, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Break Below Short-term Support / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The bond market gave up a major support level 2 weeks ago as the 10 Year Treasury Note moved decisively through 3%.  Last week the bond market followed through with yields rising and prices falling further.  The stocks for bonds switch also continued unabated.  The yield curve also broke out of its trading range around 200 basis points to steepen toward the 230 level.  Long term rates rose from 2.5% just before year end to 4.27% as of last weekend.  That is a 71% rise in a little over 4 months.  That is about double the measly 35% rise in the stock market.  The record debt to GDP level maybe changing in its composition but it is not going away.  Any “green-shoot” that might be fixing to sprout will be nipped in the bud by rising yields.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 08, 2009

The Clock is Ticking on the U.S. Dollar and Bond Markets! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ty_Andros

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis is the beginning of the third edition of the “Fingers of Instability” series.  The first edition was in the winter/spring of 2007, the second in the winter/spring of 2008, and now the third in the spring of 2009.  The Fingers of Instability are ANALOGOUS to nature as seen in a sand pile.  In August 2006, John Mauldin (John@frontlinethoughts.com) commented on a study of sand piles by three physicists who created a sand pile with a computer program that dropped one grain of sand on top of another to study critical states:  NON-EQUILIBRIUM systems and uncertainty.  When I read this, I immediately realized the debt bubbles throughout the world were an analogy to these studies and explained a great deal about the last three decades of debt creation.  It reinforced my observations about Ponzi finance and asset-backed economies.  It explained quite nicely what was transpiring and what to expect at some point in relation to PILES of DEBT and the FAKE prosperity and growth caused by EASY MONEY and runaway credit expansion.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 08, 2009

Bursting Of The U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble: Not So Fast! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe yield on the 10 year Treasury bond has spiked 10% in the past two weeks, and many are now jumping on the "bonds are the next bubble to burst" bandwagon. I was one of the first to be bearish on Treasury bonds calling for the likelihood of a secular trend change back in December, 2008 and a top in back in February, 2009. Higher Treasury yields are in our future, and it isn't a matter of if but when.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Inflation or Deflation: Who is the Winner? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Q1_Publishing

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn this environment, we anticipate that inflation will remain low. Indeed, given the sizable margin of slack in resource utilization and diminished cost pressures from oil and other commodities, inflation is likely to move down some...

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Break Below Support / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market gave up a major support level last week as the 10 Year Treasury Note moved decisively through 3%.  The stocks for bonds switch continued unabated, where it stops, nobody knows.  As the short end remains anchored, any back-up in long term rates causes the yield curve to steepen.  This is a good news – bad news story in the present environment.  It is excellent news for financials that can still afford to borrow short and lend long as they can earn a significant carry on that trade. 

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 01, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Debt Bubble Bursting! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: You’d think that after the dot-com bubble … the housing bubble … and the bubbles in commercial real estate and private equity, investors would have learned their lesson.

Nope! They did the same stupid things this fall …

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Bond Vigilantes are Fighting the Fed By Pushing Up Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCant' fight the Fed? Bond vigilantes are fighting the Fed and winning at bidding up bond yields. Short of another shock-&-awe policy announcement this Wednesday, the FOMC decision is likely to generate fresh dollar strength against risk currencies (non-JPY).

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 27, 2009

Obama Says Short US Treasuries, an Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pollaro

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBack in March, I penned this essay, Obama Says Short US Treasuries, making the bear case for the US government’s fiscal position and the Treasury long bond: http://mises.org/story/3364

Then I wrote this follow-up, Inflection Point in US Treasury Bond Interest Rates Near: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9294.html

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 27, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Fall Despite Supportive Fundamentals / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market is testing the line in the sand drawn by the Bernanke Fed at 3% on the 10 Year Treasury note yield.  While stocks held their own with the Nasdaq closing positive for the 7th week in a row, bonds continued to trade in a leaky fashion.  There was all sorts of chatter about the government stress tests being flunked by most financial institutions, but until we see an official announcement, rumours of across the board insolvencies remain just that: rumours! 

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, April 19, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Now 2 Standard Deviations Cheaper than Stocks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The bond market continues to chop around aimlessly.  The market was stronger most of the week, but a 2 point sell-off on Friday destroyed all the gains and then some.  The fundamental news turned considerably weaker – even in relation to expectations - but the stock market managed to show further gains for the 6th week in a row now.  That generated further outflow from bonds to stocks.  Based on the Fed model which compares the 10 year Treasury note to the dividend yield in the stock market, stocks made a close to 4 standard deviation move relative to bonds in a little over one month. 

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

What to Do When the U.S. Treasury Bond Market Falls / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: DailyWealth

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTom Dyson Writes: Jesse Livermore called it "the path of least resistance." Livermore is probably the greatest trader that ever lived. He made his first fortune in the stock market as a teenager... in the late 1890s. The book of his trading techniques – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator – is the best book on stock market trading ever written. You shouldn't buy another stock until you've read it. (Just don't copy his money-management techniques. By overtrading, Livermore made and lost several multimillion-dollar fortunes in his lifetime.)

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 13, 2009

Economic Weakness Supportive of Bond Prices / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Before the start of this week’s column, I would like to make a quick announcement. I am not affiliated with MF Global any longer, so please note the new contact email below if you wish to reach me. The old email address and phone number that was published in previous editions is no longer functional. 

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 06, 2009

Fed's Flawed Strategy of Buying Long Dated Treasuries to Force Rates Lower / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Bernanke thinks he can manipulate treasury yields by purchasing long dated treasuries. He can't. The market is simply too big. Please consider Treasurys slide after Fed purchases .

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Do Bonds Beat Stocks Over the Long Run? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhy Bother With Bonds?
So Then, Bonds for the Long Run?
P/E Ratios at 200? Really?
Mark-to-Market Slip Slides Away
Housing Sales Improve? Not Hardly

Investors, we are told, demand a risk premium for investing in stocks rather than bonds. Without that extra return, why invest in risky stocks if you can get guaranteed returns in bonds? This week we look at a brilliantly done paper examining whether or not investors have gotten better returns from stocks over the really long run and not just the last ten years, when stocks have wandered in the wilderness. This will not sit well with the buy and hope crowd, but the data is what the data is. Then we look at how bulls are spinning bad news into good and, if we have time, look at how you should analyze GDP numbers. Are we really down 6%? (Short answer: no.) It should make for a very interesting letter.

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