Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Santa Rally to S&P 4600+ - 28th Nov 23
Stocks and Silver Have Something to Say about Gold - 28th Nov 23
Can A Stock Market Crash Be Averted... For Now? - 28th Nov 23
Taiwan 2024 Election: Militarization or Development - 28th Nov 23
The Stock Market Trend and the Policy Behind it - 28th Nov 23
Cameco Uranium Stock Hits All-Time High - 28th Nov 23
TSLA, LRCX, TSMC Stock Earnings and Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 23
A Golden Setup: Gold Price Trend Forecast Report - 26th Nov 23
Gold Stocks Winter Seasonal Rally - 26th Nov 23
Elections in South America and Europe Reveal Backlash against Socialism - 26th Nov 23
LMT, JNJ and ASML Stock Earnings and Trend Analysis - 23rd Nov 23
When AI Hallucinates - Top AI Tech Stocks - 23rd Nov 23
Stock Market Ignoring Hawkish Fed - 23rd Nov 23
Stock Market Trend Trajectory into Year End 2023 - 22nd Nov 23
Copper/Gold Ratio: Still Counter-Cyclical - 22nd Nov 23
Learn to Use the FORCE! - How to Really Get Rich - 21st Nov 23
Quad Witching Cracks Stock Market Nuts - 18th Nov 23
Biden Bizarrely Brags About Lower Budget Deficits as US Federal Debt Skyrockets - 18th Nov 23
Silver Price Between a Rock and a Hard Place - 18th Nov 23
The Most Important Chat GPT Tech Reveal of 2023 - 18th Nov 23
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio - 9th Nov 23
Micron MU Stock Trend Analysis - 9th Nov 23
TSMC Stock Trend Analysis - 9th Nov 23
NVIDIA Stock Trend Analysis - 9th Nov 23
The “new ChatGPT” just launched - 9th Nov 23

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

UK Unemployment Targets 3 Million This Year

Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010 Apr 23, 2009 - 07:22 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK Unemployment shot up by 71,000 for January 09 data to 12 year high of 2.1 million to officially stand at 6.7% of the workforce, 2.1 million is exactly on target as per my forecast of October 2008. However the more up to date unemployment claimant count data continued to soar, rising by 64,000 in March to 1.52 million, which is up more than 50% on the 970,000 figure of 6 months ago and acts as a leading leading indicator which signals much higher forward unemployment data as illustrated by the below graph


My original UK unemployment forecast based on July 08 data is for unemployment to rise to just above 2.5 million by April 2010, however the UK economy continues to deteriorate at an alarming rate with projections of a severe recession of more than a 6% GDP contraction implies that the UK is heading for an unemployment rate that could pass above 3,000,000 by the end of this year. The near vertical assent in the claimant count for Feb and March 09 totaling 241k implies sharply higher unemployment for Feb and March, this despite the fact that the unemployment statistics are heavily manipulated to under report true level of unemployment which would be 5.75 million higher if all those of working age (16 to 64) were included in the data as illustrated below, the actual dip in total inactive is due to net migration as eastern european workers are apparently returning home in the face of increasing difficulties in the UK labour market.

UK Unemployment Time bomb

My Analysis of 21st February 09 ( UK Unemployment Time Bomb to Explode July 2009) warned that there exists the unemployment time bomb of the estimated 600,000 of school, college,leavers and graduates that are expected to join the labour market in July 2009 which could result in a surge of unemployment of as many as 250,000 in a single month, with also extra high unemployed numbers for subsequent months, this factor is now also starting to be recognised by the mainstream press.

Budget Deficit

The 50% surge in claimant count is resulting in much higher benefits payments of approximately £5 billion per year whilst at the same time putting the squeeze on lost tax revenues which is contributing towards the £175 billion announced budget deficit for 2009. For more analysis on the budget see my earlier article - Darling's Recession Debt Crisis Budget, Britain's £1.2 Trillion Public Sector Black Hole

Subscribe to my always FREE Newsletter to get key analysis and forecasts in you in box.

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 250 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in