Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Video - 25th June 19
Today’s Pets.com and NINJA Loan Economy - 25th June 19
Testing the Fed’s Narrative with the Fed’s Data: QT Edition - 25th June 19
What "Pro Traders" use to Find Profitable Trades - eBook - 25th June 19
GDX Gold Stocks ETF - 25th June 19
What Does Facebook’s LIBRA New Crytocurrency Really Offer? - 25th June 19
Why Bond Investors MUST Be Paying Attention to Puerto Rico - 25th June 19
The Next Great Depression in the Making - 25th June 19
The Bad News About Record-Low Unemployment - 24th June 19
Stock Market New High, but…! - 24th June 19
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally Ends - 24th June 19
How To Time Market Tops and Bottoms - 24th June 19
5 basic tips to help mitigate the vulnerability inherent in email communications - 24th June 19
Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - 24th June 19
Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - 23rd June 19
Financial Sector Paints A Clear Picture For Stock Market Trading Profits - 23rd June 19
What You Should Look While Choosing Online Casino - 23rd June 19
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - 22nd June 19
Here’s Why You Should Drive a Piece of Crap Car - 22nd June 19
How Do Stock Prices React to Fed Interest Rate Cuts? - 22nd June 19
Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! - 21st June 19
Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur - 21st June 19
Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned - 21st June 19
Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks - 21st June 19
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - 21st June 19
The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt - 21st June 19
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls - 21st June 19
Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis - 20th June 19
Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart - 20th June 19
A Key Gold Bull Market Signal - 20th June 19
Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - 20th June 19
Investing in APPLE (AAPL) to Profit From AI Machine Learning Stocks - 20th June 19
Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally - 20th June 19 -
Interest Rates Square Minus Zero - 20th June 19
Advice for Financing a Luxury Vehicle - 20th June 19
Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS - 20th June 19
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? - 19th June 19
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller - 19th June 19
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? - 19th June 19
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Swine Flu: A Follow-up on Trading the Hype

Politics / Global Pandemic May 04, 2009 - 04:37 AM GMT

By: Mike_Stathis

Politics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast week I released a piece that no other (qualified) financial professional was willing to expose because (in my opinion) they don’t want the masses to know how event-driven media-hyped trading works. If everyone knew how the game is played, they wouldn’t be able to make the easy money. http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-170.html


While it’s still early to know for certain whether this virus will live up to its media expectations, let’s check the results of the securities I previously discussed. Note that my earlier piece was published on April 30th. As you check the charts of each security, note the performance since that time. 

As you can see, since my earlier piece was published, NVAX has lost around 36% while BCRX suffered about a 15% loss up until the last couple of hours of Friday’s session. At the close it was about even where it was on April 30th.

Note my warning about Novavax (NVAX) from last week…

“The key thing to focus on here is the trading volume. As you can see, while still holding up, it appears as if it might soon show signs of dropping off. When that happens, look out below. If you’re in this stock, you’d better have stop-losses in place.” http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-170.html

Also my initial observations as to which of these two stocks (NVAX versus BCRX) looked better….

“Upon examination of the stock price charts for BioCryst (BCRX), we see a similar situation. But there are two notable differences. First, as you can see, the recovery since Monday looks stronger than for NVAX. Also notice the new high made just after the open on Tuesday. And it managed to close higher than the previous day’s close.”   

“Looking at the historical chart of BCRX, although the long-term trend mirrors that of NVAX, there are insufficient points to confirm this. In other words, the chances of the trend being broken are somewhat higher than with NVAX.” http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-170.html

Roche is about even although it too experienced a late trading session surge on Friday. Meanwhile, GSK and GILD are considerably down, especially when you look at the relative strength. 

You should also note that the volume is starting to dry up for these stocks – one of the signs I warned to watch out for.

But of course we must also note the performance of the applicable indices over the past few days in order to gauge the relative strength, or in other words, get a more accurate picture of the performance of the swine flu plays. 

For NVAX and BCRX, you can look at the Russell 2000. As it turned out, the Russell was very close to even since April 30th (very slightly down). For the other stocks you can look at either the Dow or the S&P 500 Index. I go by the Dow for some very good reasons. Either way, for this exercise it doesn’t matter since both indices were up a bit since I published the earlier piece.

So are these stocks going to continue to lose steam? As I mentioned last week, you have to get a feel for the sentiment, namely what the media is saying because the media guides the sheep. As more sheep are influenced, hedge funds will come in and even buy these stocks to draw more sheep in.  These effects are magnified for the small caps (NVAX and BCRX).

In contrast, the drugstores are looking a little better, much like I first anticipated would happen last week.

“Finally, we turn to the drugstores, thought to be the real benefactors of the swine flu hype. With millions of Americans fooled by the media panic, they’ve flocked to buy surgical masks and gloves. In many locations, supplies have run out. But you can bet it won’t be long before they restock because they know this hype isn’t likely to last long.”  http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-170.html

While WAG is about even since I wrote, CVS is up considerably. Also note that both appear to be increasing in volume.  You see, no matter what happens, the drug stores will continue to sell surgical masks and gloves, meds and other related items.

In contrast, NVAX and BCRX are likely to get hammered if in fact this flu doesn’t turn pandemic or at least increase to levels that would warrant valid pandemic warnings. Without that, these two are not likely to get accelerated approval and/or new orders for untested anti-viral agents. However, I would not be surprised to see more spikes and sell-offs due to the obvious volatility.

I still haven’t changed my view from last week about any of these stocks. And I wouldn’t be a buyer of CVS or WAG, despite a good chance that they’ll continue to run up a bit because I view the market risk as a much more important factor to consider. And the market risk is quite high.

When you have a look at some of the headlines circulating in the media, it should be obvious that they are pushing this panic to the max based on the raw data. For instance, have a look at this headline from the sister station of the bubble network… “U.S. flu cases jump as labs catch up.” Without reading the article, in my opinion, the headline implies that thousands have the flu and labs are racing to find a cure! Of course this is by no means the situation. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30398682/

Have a look at a live global map of confirmed swine flu cases. Once again, this is hardly a reason for the media onslaught that seems to keep getting bigger each day. After all, panic sells.  http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30485593/

I certainly don’t know what that outcome will be, but I would be very surprised if the flu elevated to levels that approached the seasonal flu in America. Keep in mind that anywhere from 30,000 to 50,000 Americans DIE each year during the flu season.

Since I wrote the first piece last week, I ran across a nice piece by a respected physician regarding the swine flu. As you will see, we share similar views. Like me, he isn’t a pill pusher and he knows well about the dangers of an “overprescribed” America.
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/04/29/Swine-Flu.aspx

Regardless what happens, it’s essential for traders to keep your attention on how much the media hypes this flu because it determines what the sheep will do in the stock market.  And wolves always prey on sheep, and usually slaughtering them. So which would you rather be? 

I want to encourage all who seek the truth and valuable guidance to follow me to my new site www.avaresearch.com (coming in a few days). You won't see me pitching gold or investments to you like others. You will continue to receive nothing but unbiased top-tier insight, education and commentaries.

2

By Mike Stathis
www.avaresearch.com

Copyright © 2009. All Rights Reserved. Mike Stathis.

Mike Stathis is the Managing Principal of Apex Venture Advisors , a business and investment intelligence firm serving the needs of venture firms, corporations and hedge funds on a variety of projects. Mike's work in the private markets includes valuation analysis, deal structuring, and business strategy. In the public markets he has assisted hedge funds with investment strategy, valuation analysis, market forecasting, risk management, and distressed securities analysis. Prior to Apex Advisors, Mike worked at UBS and Bear Stearns, focusing on asset management and merchant banking.

The accuracy of his predictions and insights detailed in the 2006 release of America's Financial Apocalypse and Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble have positioned him as one of America's most insightful and creative financial minds. These books serve as proof that he remains well ahead of the curve, as he continues to position his clients with a unique competitive advantage. His first book, The Startup Company Bible for Entrepreneurs has become required reading for high-tech entrepreneurs, and is used in several business schools as a required text for completion of the MBA program.

Restrictions Against Reproduction: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner and the Publisher. These articles and commentaries cannot be reposted or used in any publications for which there is any revenue generated directly or indirectly. These articles cannot be used to enhance the viewer appeal of any website, including any ad revenue on the website, other than those sites for which specific written permission has been granted. Any such violations are unlawful and violators will be prosecuted in accordance with these laws.

Requests to the Publisher for permission or further information should be sent to info@apexva.com

Books Published
"America's Financial Apocalypse" (Condensed Version)  http://www.amazon.com/...

"Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble"  http://www.amazon.com/...

"The Startup Company Bible for Entrepreneurs"   http://www.amazon.com...

Disclaimer: All investment commentaries and recommendations herein have been presented for educational purposes, are generic and not meant to serve as individual investment advice, and should not be taken as such. Readers should consult their registered financial representative to determine the suitability of all investment strategies discussed. Without a consideration of each investor's financial profile. The investment strategies herein do not apply to 401(k), IRA or any other tax-deferred retirement accounts due to the limitations of these investment vehicles.

Mike Stathis Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules