Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24
Micro Strategy Bubble Mania - 10th May 24
Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics is Cooking Jobs Reports - 10th May 24
Bitcoin Price Swings Analysis - 9th May 24
Could Chinese Gold Be the Straw That Breaks the Dollar's Back? - 9th May 24
The Federal Reserve Is Broke! - 9th May 24
The Elliott Wave Crash Course - 9th May 24
Psychologically Prepared for Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pull Corrections 2024 - 8th May 24
Why You Should Pay Attention to This Time-Tested Stock Market Indicator Now - 8th May 24
Copper: The India Factor - 8th May 24
Gold 2008 and 2022 All Over Again? Stocks, USDX - 8th May 24
Holocaust Survivor States Israel is Like Nazi Germany, The Fourth Reich - 8th May 24
Fourth Reich Invades Rafah Concentration Camp To Kill Palestinian Children - 8th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stocks Bull Market or Bear Trap? It’s Easy to See

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market May 23, 2009 - 02:25 AM GMT

By: John_Handbury

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere has been a large volume of press regarding the latest run-up in stock prices and whether this is a legitimate beginning of a trend, or a bear market trap. The answer is pretty simple and easy to see from the plot below:


A pre-bull market doesn’t simply start climbing with a gentle gradient and let the longs load up.  The fact that the VIX (volatility index) has decreased suddenly to reassure new investors is very suspicious indeed.

A market that is beginning a large upwards trend should be whipsawing back and forth in an attempt to get the nervous investors out, leaving only the more determined and persistent traders to reap the benefits.  In my 25-odd years of trading, this has been the case almost without exception.  For example, the figure below shows the whipsawing that occurred before the famous run-up in copper prices in 2005/2006.  Only the most committed and disciplined traders survived this volatile period with their long copper positions intact to enjoy the unprecedented run-up that followed.

The same is true for the volatile swings before the bull market in wheat.  These periods removed many of the fair-weather traders.

A bear market trap, however, would look exactly like the current SPX chart.  It is very enticing and seductive in its gentleness, practically calling investors to climb back in, and then will abruptly change course to relieve them of their money (which markets like to do to nervous traders).

I take one look at the current SPX chart and say head for the hills.

By:      John Handbury
Independent Trader

© 2009 Copyright John Handbury - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

John Handbury  Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in