Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Stock Market Bull Trap? January 22 Top Likely - 19th Jan 19
After the Crash, the Stock Market Made a V-shaped Recovery. What’s Next - 19th Jan 19
David Morgan: Expect Stagflation and Silver Outperformance in 2019 - 19th Jan 19
Why Brampton Manor Academy State School 41 Oxbridge Offers is Nothing to Celebrate! - 19th Jan 19
REMAIN Parliament Prepares to Subvert BrExit with Peoples Vote FIXED 2nd EU Referendum - 19th Jan 19
Gold Surges on Stock Selloff - 18th Jan 19
Crude Oil Price Will Find Strong Resistance Between $52~55 - 18th Jan 19
Stock Market’s Medium Term is No Longer Bullish. It is Now Mixed - 18th Jan 19
SPX and Gold; Pivotal Points at Hand - 18th Jan 19
Fable Media Launches New GoWin Online Casino Affiliate Site in UK - 18th Jan 19
The End of Apple! - 18th Jan 19
Debt, Division, Dysfunction, and the March to National Bankruptcy - 18th Jan 19
Creating the Best Office Space - 18th Jan 19
S&P 500 at Resistance Level, Downward Correction Ahead? - 17th Jan 19
Mauldin: My 2019 Economic Outlook - 17th Jan 19
Macro Could Weaken After US Government Shutdown. What This Means for Stocks - 17th Jan 19
US Stock Market Indexes Reaches Fibonacci Target Zone – Where to Next? - 17th Jan 19
How 2018 Was For The UK Casino Industry - 17th Jan 19
Gold Price – US$700 Or US$7000? - 16th Jan 19
Commodities Are the Right Story for 2019 - 16th Jan 19
Bitcoin Price Wavers - 15th Jan 19
History Shows That “Disruptor Stocks” Will Make You the Most Money in a Bear Market - 15th Jan 19
What Will the Stock Market Do Around Earnings Season - 15th Jan 19
2018-2019 Pop Goes The Debt Bubble - 15th Jan 19
Are Global Stock Markets About To Rally 10 Percent? - 15th Jan 19
Here's something to make you money in 2019 - 15th Jan 19
Theresa May to Lose by Over 200 Votes as Remain MP's Plot Subverting Brexit - 15th Jan 19
Europe is Burning - 14th Jan 19
S&P 500 Bounces Off 2,600, Downward Reversal? - 14th Jan 19
Gold A Rally or a Bull Market? - 14th Jan 19
Gold Stocks, Dollar and Oil Cycle Moves to Profit from in 2019 - 14th Jan 19
How To Profit From The Death Of Las Vegas - 14th Jan 19
Real Reason for Land Rover Crisis is Poor Quality of Build - 14th Jan 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy! - 13th Jan 19
Liquidity, Money Supply, and Insolvency - 13th Jan 19
Top Ten Trends Lead to Gold Price - 13th Jan 19
Silver: A Long Term Perspective - 13th Jan 19
Trump's Impeachment? Watch the Stock Market - 12th Jan 19
Big Silver Move Foreshadowed as Industrial Panic Looms - 12th Jan 19
Gold GDXJ Upside Bests GDX - 12th Jan 19
Devastating Investment Losses Are Coming: What Is Your Advisor Doing About It? - 12th Jan 19
Things to do Before Choosing the Right Credit Card - 12th Jan 19
Japanese Yen Outlook In 2019 - 11th Jan 19
Yield curve suggests that US Recession is near: Trading Setups - 11th Jan 19
How Unrealistic Return Assumptions Are Ruining Your Stocks Portfolio - 10th Jan 19
What’s Next for the US Dollar, Gold, Stocks & Bonds? - 10th Jan 19
America's New Africa Strategy - 10th Jan 19
Gold Mine Production by Country - 10th Jan 19
Gold, Stocks and the Flattening Yield Curve - 10th Jan 19
Silver Price Trend Forecast Target for 2019 - 10th Jan 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Bitcoin Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019

Next Phase In The Financial and Economic Crisis

Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009 Jun 02, 2009 - 04:12 AM GMT

By: Paul_Lamont

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe recent stock market rise is lulling investors back to sleep.



Ulysses and the Sirens. Herbert James Draper. WikiCommons.

***More For Clients and Subscribers***

Bailouts Usher In Next Crisis

History (and our recent Report titled "The Invisible Hourglass") suggests how this financial episode will end. The bailout borrowings are ushering in the next wave of the crisis. Just like the bankers who could not see their own downfall, it is the politicians and their Keynesian advisors that are now pushing us over the second cliff. As expected, the Treasury bond yield has risen sharply from 2.53% to over 4.5% in 5 months. The Fed is confused. According to Russell Napier (author of Anatomy of the Bear), yields over 6% could cause the next leg down. He expects this within the next two years. We disagree, there's no definite trigger point. As we mentioned in The Haughty Bond, yields rose as investors dumped Bonds (well, everything) for cash. Stocks and bonds were sold simultaneously. Regardless, the yield is on track to reach 6% by this fall. According to Weiss Research's recent white paper on banking bailouts:

"In the 1930s, interest rates moved down, up, and then down again, in three distinct phases: In Phase 1, all interest rates declined due to deflation. In Phase 2, however, despite sharp GDP declines, interest rates surged unexpectedly: The 3-month Treasury-bill rate jumped six fold - from about a half percent to 3 percent; the yields on 20-Year Treasury bonds surged beyond their pre-crash peak; and the average yield on low-grade corporate bonds exploded higher to 11 percent. At this juncture, like today, the federal government came under increasingly intense pressure from creditors to reduce its federal deficit; limit its efforts to save failing banks; and, shift to a more disciplined, austere, tough-love approach. Finally, in Phase 3, interest rates fell and mostly remained low for the balance of the decade."


Source: Weiss Research Inc.

Instead of borrowing money to prop up Wall Street Firms, the U.S. Treasury should save its ammo. More important events could come along that would require government action.


WikiCommons.

As we wait for creditors to force the issue, Treasury bond yields continue to fly.

By Paul Lamont
www.LTAdvisors.net

At Lamont Trading Advisors, we provide wealth preservation strategies for our clients. For more information, contact us . Our monthly Investment Analysis Report requires a subscription fee of $40 a month. Current subscribers are allowed to freely distribute this report with proper attribution.

***No graph, chart, formula or other device offered can in and of itself be used to make trading decisions.

Copyright © 2009 Lamont Trading Advisors, Inc. Paul J. Lamont is President of Lamont Trading Advisors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the State of Alabama . Persons in states outside of Alabama should be aware that we are relying on de minimis contact rules within their respective home state. For more information about our firm, or to receive a copy of our disclosure form ADV, please email us at advrequest@ltadvisors.net, or call (256) 850-4161.

Paul Lamont Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules