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5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Quick Update

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market Jun 03, 2009 - 06:16 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn response to a dozen email requests, this is a quick update to the ongoing Stocks Stealth Bull Market that began in early March 2009.


The most recent analysis of April 26th concluded that the Dow is targeting 8,750 by mid May 2009 which was expected to be followed by a significant correction of 14%, the Dow hit this target yesterday (Tuesday 2nd June) and therefore expectations are now for this significant correction to materialise as indicated by the original chart below.

However, I need to remind readers that we are in a stocks stealth bull market that has already delivered a powerful 35% gain to date, so whilst a stock market correction is expected into the end of June, it is still just a correction against the trend, that has been missed by virtually ALL analysts that either continue to re-write the rules in support of this still being a stocks bear market rally, clutching at straws such as contracting corporate earnings (old news) or attempt to re-write history so as to imply they saw this rally in their rear view mirror as I warned of at the beginning of April and which during this week was most evident in CNBC's "Mad Money Man" Jim Cramer attempting to re-write history to imply that he called the market bottom at Dow 6,500 as the below video illustrates.

My in depth analysis for the stock market that projects a trend for several months will follow my UK economy forecast update, to receive these on the day of publication make sure your subscribed to my always free newsletter.

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 250 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Jim Leflar
04 Jun 09, 11:15
Fine forecasting

I'm putting money on your call now. You have been fully correct the last four calls, a better record than any other I can find.

This seems to be the spot where nearly all have become fully open to further bull rising, so ideal for reversal profits by the market makers.

Thank you for the predictions.


Alejandro
17 Jun 09, 19:03
Better understanding

Hello Nadeem, thanks for your postings. Could you tell us how you worked out these calculation you made in a previous post, or alternatively would you kindly point us in the right direction.

' The Dow has rallied from a trough of 6470 to a peak of 8190 totaling 1720 points, key retracement levels are 33% = 7,622; 50% = 7,330; 66% = 7,050. '

or

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10265.html last paragraph


Nadeem_Walayat
18 Jun 09, 05:38
Forecasting

Hi

There is no one single tool or formula for determining forecasts, the CONCLUSION comes down to taking the WHOLE analysis into account, which typically includes conflicting analysis.

I think this is where many analysts go wrong, as they tend to run with one tool i.e. elliott wave theory.

So the key is using multiple tools AND practice in arriving at unbiased conclusions

Best

NW


GK
28 Jun 09, 06:56
Indian Stealth Bull Market

What is your view on the Indian market? We have retraced almost 61.25 of the entire fall with as many as 5 gaps, including one that is huge (about 9% of the index) without any significant correction. We have recently corrected about 23% of the rise since March and again have started going up in a pre-budget rally. On the economic side, our fiscal deficit is soaring. Do you think the rally can continue without significant correction?


Tariq
29 Jun 09, 16:36
Dow Jones summer correction

Hi Nadeem,

Were now heading into July....

Do you still expect a correction down to 7500?

Thank You


Nadeem_Walayat
29 Jun 09, 17:10
Relative strength

The stock market is currently showing relative strength, which on face value implies it wants to go higher.

However the existing forecast remains intact (14% decline to 7500), as I need to do an indepth update on the stock market to change the outlook, but my immediate focus is on the UK economy which is heading for a severe SECOND recession following the 2010 election.


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