Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Forecast Current State - 7th Apr 20
Boris Johnson Fighting for his Life In Intensive Care - UK Coronavirus Crisis - 7th Apr 20
Precious Metals Are About To Reset Like In 2008 – Gold Bugs, Buckle Up! - 7th Apr 20
Crude Oil's 2020 Crash: See What Helped (Some) Traders Pivot Just in Time - 7th Apr 20
Was the Fed Just Nationalized? - 7th Apr 20
Gold & Silver Mines Closed as Physical Silver Becomes “Most Undervalued Asset” - 7th Apr 20
US Coronavirus Blacktop Politics - 7th Apr 20
Coronavirus is America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment, There Will be a Reckoning With China - 6th Apr 20
Coronavirus Crisis Exposes Consequences of Fed Policy: Americans Have No Savings - 6th Apr 20
The Stock Market Is Not a Magic Money Machine - 6th Apr 20
Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! - 6th Apr 20
How Can Writing Business Essay Help You In Business Analytics Skills - 6th Apr 20
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stock Market Summer Trend Into a Crash

Stock-Markets / Financial Crash Jun 08, 2009 - 02:05 PM GMT

By: David_Petch

Stock-Markets

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with upper 21 and 34 MA Bollinger bands riding the index higher while lower BB’s continue to rise alongside the index, along with a potential Elliott Wave count displayed (which has a lower probability of occurrence compared to the other displayed patterns. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in stochastics 1 and 3. If the %K can manage to remain hooked up and cross the %D in stochastic 2, it increases the likelihood that the continued price movement in the S&P 500 index drifts between 900-1000 over the course of the next 1-2 weeks at a minimum before topping out. As the Captain noted and as Elliott Wave charts will later show, there is a chance the markets simply go sideways for the summer before having a fall crash…to risky for most to even attempt playing, so use risk capital and no more than 5% on any given market trade.


Figure 1

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with upper 21 and 34 week MA Bollinger bands in close proximity to the index, while the lower 34 MA BB has shot above the 21 MA BB, indicating the mid-term trend is overbought. It is important to note that the 55 MA BB is at 484.99, well below the lows of 2009. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in all three instances. When the %K in stochastic 1 curls down and falls beneath the %D, a top will likely have been put in place…I should point out that it could take 1-2 weeks at a minimum for this to occur.

Figure 2

The monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with all three lower Bollinger bands falling beneath the index. It is also important to note that in 2008, the index fell below the 200 month MA, something that never even came close to happening within the data shown below. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in all three instances. Based upon positioning of the %K in stochastic 3, a bottom should not be expected until early to mid 2010.

Figure 3

The short-term Elliott Wave count of the S&P 500 Index is shown below. At present, it appear that a flat is forming for wave (g), which would signify the end of the rally within 1-2 weeks. However, if the wave structure is going to continue all summer long, then this would be the correct reference point to base the developing wave structure on. Things must be kept rather “loose” at present, because there is no definitive proof to support either event “will” occur. This is a probability game at present and we must sit on our hands to see what the market deals us. There will be a fantastic opportunity to short the market in the coming weeks potentially, so as this wave structure continues to unfold we watch patiently.

Figure 4

The mid-term Elliott Wave count of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with the thought pattern forming added in early May shown in green. Although the stock market has not followed the pattern to a tee, it has nonetheless followed it “out of phase”. The Degree of this chart is much higher than Figure 4, thereby eliminating all of the potential counts existing at Minute and Minuette Degree. With the present trend, the S&P breaking below 850 would be an early indication that a top has been put in place.

Figure 5

The long-term Elliott Wave count of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with the thought pattern forming denoted in green. Green lines indicate the thought pattern forming, which implies the count could extend into early fall before declining to at least test the early 2009 lows. As mentioned earlier, the markets could do anything, so keep tight stops if trying to short the market at this point in time.

Figure 6

The CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index is shown below, with the S&P 500 Index shown in the background in black and accompanying full stochastics shown below. The put call ratio continues to remain within the confines of a triangle that does not have an apex form until August/September 2009. For this chart, full stochastics having the %K above the %D is an indication of weakness in the broad stock markets, while the %K beneath the %D is an indication of strength. At present the %K is riding above the %D, which is serving as a potential red flag as the S&P continues to rally. Whenever the %K and %D are in close proximity for extended periods of time, it creates the setup for a sharp decline in the market. We are not there yet, but a spike in the put/call ratio in the range of 0.45-0.50 should serve as an indication a top in the broad markets has been put in. For now, everyone continues to skate on the ice path beside the cliff.

Figure 7

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (BPGDM) is shown below, with the HUI in the background (denoted in green) and accompanying full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 shown below in order of descent. The BPGDM continues to rise to nosebleed territory in a sloped manor, unlike the sharp rises seen earlier in the chart. The %K is above the %D in all three stochastics, indicating there still is more room for bullishness to grow before a top is put in place, suggesting the gold stocks are going higher. How higher no one knows,  but this trend could continue for another 1-2 weeks as per strength in the S&P 500 Index.

Figure 8

That is all for today. I will Update the HUI tomorrow AM. Have a great day.

By David Petch

http://www.treasurechests.info

I generally try to write at least one editorial per week, although typically not as long as this one. At www.treasurechests.info , once per week (with updates if required), I track the Amex Gold BUGS Index, AMEX Oil Index, US Dollar Index, 10 Year US Treasury Index and the S&P 500 Index using various forms of technical analysis, including Elliott Wave. Captain Hook the site proprietor writes 2-3 articles per week on the “big picture” by tying in recent market action with numerous index ratios, money supply, COT positions etc. We also cover some 60 plus stocks in the precious metals, energy and base metals categories (with a focus on stocks around our provinces).

With the above being just one example of how we go about identifying value for investors, if this is the kind of analysis you are looking for we invite you to visit our site and discover more about how our service can further aid in achieving your financial goals. In this regard, whether it's top down macro-analysis designed to assist in opinion shaping and investment policy, or analysis on specific opportunities in the precious metals and energy sectors believed to possess exceptional value, like mindedly at Treasure Chests we in turn strive to provide the best value possible. So again, pay us a visit and discover why a small investment on your part could pay you handsome rewards in the not too distant future.

And of course if you have any questions, comments, or criticisms regarding the above, please feel free to drop us a line . We very much enjoy hearing from you on these items.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Comments within the text should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities as we are not registered brokers or advisors. Certain statements included herein may constitute "forward-looking statements" with the meaning of certain securities legislative measures. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the above mentioned companies, and / or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Do your own due diligence.

Copyright © 2009 treasurechests.info Inc. All rights reserved.

Unless otherwise indicated, all materials on these pages are copyrighted by treasurechests.info Inc. No part of these pages, either text or image may be used for any purpose other than personal use. Therefore, reproduction, modification, storage in a retrieval system or retransmission, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or otherwise, for reasons other than personal use, is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

David Petch Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules