Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market and the US Presidential Election Cycle  - 16th Jan 20
Shifting Undercurrents In The US Stock Market - 16th Jan 20
America 2020 – YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY (PART TWO) - 16th Jan 20
Yes, China Is a Currency Manipulator – And the U.S. Banking System Is a Metals Manipulator - 16th Jan 20
MICROSOFT Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 15th Jan 20
Silver Traders Big Trend Analysis – Part II - 15th Jan 20
Silver Short-Term Pullback Before Acceleration Higher - 15th Jan 20
Gold Overall Outlook Is 'Strongly Bullish' - 15th Jan 20
AMD is Killing Intel - Best CPU's For 2020! Ryzen 3900x, 3950x, 3960x Budget, to High End Systems - 15th Jan 20
The Importance Of Keeping Invoices Up To Date - 15th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis 2020 - 14th Jan 20
Walmart Has Made a Genius Move to Beat Amazon - 14th Jan 20
Deep State 2020 – A Year Of Living Dangerously! - 14th Jan 20
The End of College Is Near - 14th Jan 20
AI Stocks Investing 2020 to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Video - 14th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust - 14th Jan 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast Review - 13th Jan 20
Trumpism Stock Market and the crisis in American social equality - 13th Jan 20
Silver Investors Big Trend Analysis for – Part I - 13th Jan 20
Craig Hemke Gold & Silver 2020 Prediction, Slams Biased Gold Naysayers - 13th Jan 20
AMAZON Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 11th Jan 20
Gold Price Reacting to Global Flash Points - 11th Jan 20
Land Rover Discovery Sport 2020 - What You Need to Know Before Buying - 11th Jan 20
Gold Buying Precarious - 11th Jan 20
The Crazy Stock Market Train to Bull Eternity - 11th Jan 20
Gold Gann Angle Update - 10th Jan 20
Gold In Rally Mode Suggests Commitment of Traders (COT) Data - 10th Jan 20
Disney Could Mount Its Biggest Rally in 2020 - 10th Jan 20
How on Earth Can Gold Decline During the U.S. – Iran Crisis? - 10th Jan 20
Getting Your HR Budget in Line - 10th Jan 20
The Fed Protects Gamblers at the Expense of the Economy - 9th Jan 20
Last Chance to Get Microsoft Windows 10 for FREE! - 9th Jan 20
The Stock Market is the Opiate of the Masses - 9th Jan 20
Is The Energy Sector Setting Up Another Great Entry? - 9th Jan 20
The Fed Is Creating a Monster Bubble - 9th Jan 20
If History Repeats, Video Game Stocks Could Soar 600%+ - 9th Jan 20
What to Know Before Buying a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2020 - 8th Jan 20
Stock Market Forecast 2020 Trend Analysis - 8th Jan 20
Gold Price at Resistance - 8th Jan 20
The Fed Has Quietly Started QE4 - 8th Jan 20
NASDAQ Set to Fall 1000pts Early 2020, and What it Means for Gold Price - 8th Jan 20
Gold 2020 - Financial Analysts and Major Financial Institutions Outlook - 8th Jan 20
Stock Market Trend Review - 8th Jan 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

NIESR Reports UK Recession Over, Economic Recovery Underway

Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010 Jun 10, 2009 - 03:02 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe mainstream 'respected' forecasting organisation, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) reported earlier today that it believed that Britain's economic depression bottomed in March and that economic output across the economy rose in April 09 by 0.2% and by 0.1% in May 2009, which follows my own analysis of a stabilising economy a week ago which was also emailed to the NIESR forecasting organisation.


Today's NIESR announcement's outlook is inline with my own analysis of the past 2 months that has been increasingly suggestive of a bounce in the UK economy right from the birth of the stocks stealth bull market in Mid March, to the UK housing market "temporary" bounce of Mid May followed by the 3rd of June in-depth analysis that confirmed that the UK economy is set for a debt fuelled bounce into the May 2010 General Election and concluded :

Total GDP contraction to date now stands at -4% on a quarter on quarter basis, which is against my forecast for -6.3% total into Q3 2009, which strongly suggests that GDP contraction during the 2nd and 3rd quarters for 2009 'should' moderate i.e. we are unlikely to see another figure as bad as 1st Q -1.9%, more probably the 2nd quarter GDP is likely to be at -1%. Whilst a strong bounce back in the economy is expected going into the 2010 election given the extreme measures adopted most notable illustrated by the £500+ billion budget deficit to generate just £67 billion of additional economic growth, however the post general election tax hikes and deep public spending cuts will in all likelihood trigger a double dip recession during 2011 to 2012 as illustrated by the below graph. Therefore my growing expectations are for GDP contraction that is marginally less than the forecast -6.3%, which also implies stronger growth during 2010, which will not be sustained during 2011 and beyond.

Though the NEISR's most recent press release of May 6th 2009, differs against my earlier analysis as the NEISR is forecasting GDP contraction of 4.3% for 2009 and 0.9% growth for 2010, which will now probably be revised higher during future press releases and is set against my own forecast for GDP approaching +3% in 2010.

I aim to publish a further update to the bounce in the UK housing market later today, as well as an in-depth update the UK interest rate forecast of December 2008 that called for UK interest rates to start rising during the second half of 2009 as illustrated by the graphs below. To receive the in-depth analysis in your email box, make sure your subscribed to my always free newsletter.

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 250 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

david
16 Jun 09, 06:02
UK house prices

thank you for you interesting views as usual. I agree will all you say but do you still see anothe 15% drop in UK house prices?


Nadeem_Walayat
16 Jun 09, 06:51
uk house prices

I will be doing an update on uk house prices either today or early tommorrow


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules