Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives - 8th Dec 24
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 - 2nd Dec 24
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

NIESR Reports UK Recession Over, Economic Recovery Underway

Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010 Jun 10, 2009 - 03:02 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe mainstream 'respected' forecasting organisation, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) reported earlier today that it believed that Britain's economic depression bottomed in March and that economic output across the economy rose in April 09 by 0.2% and by 0.1% in May 2009, which follows my own analysis of a stabilising economy a week ago which was also emailed to the NIESR forecasting organisation.


Today's NIESR announcement's outlook is inline with my own analysis of the past 2 months that has been increasingly suggestive of a bounce in the UK economy right from the birth of the stocks stealth bull market in Mid March, to the UK housing market "temporary" bounce of Mid May followed by the 3rd of June in-depth analysis that confirmed that the UK economy is set for a debt fuelled bounce into the May 2010 General Election and concluded :

Total GDP contraction to date now stands at -4% on a quarter on quarter basis, which is against my forecast for -6.3% total into Q3 2009, which strongly suggests that GDP contraction during the 2nd and 3rd quarters for 2009 'should' moderate i.e. we are unlikely to see another figure as bad as 1st Q -1.9%, more probably the 2nd quarter GDP is likely to be at -1%. Whilst a strong bounce back in the economy is expected going into the 2010 election given the extreme measures adopted most notable illustrated by the £500+ billion budget deficit to generate just £67 billion of additional economic growth, however the post general election tax hikes and deep public spending cuts will in all likelihood trigger a double dip recession during 2011 to 2012 as illustrated by the below graph. Therefore my growing expectations are for GDP contraction that is marginally less than the forecast -6.3%, which also implies stronger growth during 2010, which will not be sustained during 2011 and beyond.

Though the NEISR's most recent press release of May 6th 2009, differs against my earlier analysis as the NEISR is forecasting GDP contraction of 4.3% for 2009 and 0.9% growth for 2010, which will now probably be revised higher during future press releases and is set against my own forecast for GDP approaching +3% in 2010.

I aim to publish a further update to the bounce in the UK housing market later today, as well as an in-depth update the UK interest rate forecast of December 2008 that called for UK interest rates to start rising during the second half of 2009 as illustrated by the graphs below. To receive the in-depth analysis in your email box, make sure your subscribed to my always free newsletter.

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 250 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

david
16 Jun 09, 06:02
UK house prices

thank you for you interesting views as usual. I agree will all you say but do you still see anothe 15% drop in UK house prices?


Nadeem_Walayat
16 Jun 09, 06:51
uk house prices

I will be doing an update on uk house prices either today or early tommorrow


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in