Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Is Crude Oil Firmly on the Upswing Now? - 20th Feb 20
What Can Stop the Stocks Bull – Or At Least, Make It Pause? - 20th Feb 20
Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus COVID19 UK Infection Prevention, Boosting Immune Systems, Birmingham, Sheffield - 20th Feb 20
Silver’s Valuable Insights Into the Upcoming PMs Rally - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic - 19th Feb 20
Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… - 19th Feb 20
What Alexis Kennedy Learned from Launching Cultist Simulator - 19th Feb 20
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20
The Growing Weaponization of Space - 14th Feb 20
Will the 2020s Be Good or Bad for the Gold Market? - 14th Feb 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Price Will Break Above $1650 Within 15~30 Days - 14th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Trend Forecast 2020 - 14th Feb 20
Coronavirus, Powell and Gold - 14th Feb 20
How the Corona Virus is Affecting Global Stock Markets - 14th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis - 13th Feb 20
Owning and Driving a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2020 - 2 YEAR Review - 13th Feb 20
Shipping Rates Plunge, Commodities and Stocks May Follow - 13th Feb 20
Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession - 13th Feb 20
PALLADIUM - THIS Is What a Run on the Bank for Precious Metals Looks Like… - 13th Feb 20
Bitcoin: "Is it too late to get in?" Get Answers Now - 13th Feb 20
China Coronavirus Infections Soar by 1/3rd to 60,000, Deaths Jump to 1,367 - 13th Feb 20
Crude Oil Price Action – Like a Coiled Spring Already? - 13th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections, Africa and South America Hidden Outbreaks - 12th Feb 20
Will USD X Decline About to Trigger Precious Metals Rally - 12th Feb 20
Copper Market is a Coiled Spring - 12th Feb 20
Dow Theory Stock Market Warning from the Utilities Index - 12th Feb 20
How to Get Virgin Media Engineers to FIX Hub 3.0 Problems and NOT BS Customers - 12th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections by 66% Due to Capacity Constraints - 12th Feb 20
Is Coronavirus the Black Swan That Takes Gold To-Da-Moon? - 12th Feb 20
Stock Market 2020 – A Close Look At What To Expect - 12th Feb 20
IBM AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 11th Feb 20
The US Dollar’s Subtle Message for Gold - 11th Feb 20
What All To Do Before Opening A Bank Account For Your Business - 11th Feb 20
How and When to Enter Day Trades & Swing Trade For Maximum Gains - 11th Feb 20
The Great Stock Market Dichotomy - 11th Feb 20
Stock Market Sector Rotation Should Peak Within 60+ Days – Part II - 11th Feb 20
CoronaVirus Pandemic Stocks Bear Market Risk 2020? - Video - 11th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Inflation Or Deflation - Which One Is Worse? Which One Lies Ahead?

Economics / Deflation May 31, 2007 - 05:59 PM GMT

By: Submissions


Surely inflation is our greater enemy, isn't it? Rising prices are bad for the economy. Falling prices are a good thing, aren't they?

Inflation and deflation are due more to mindset than anything else. Let me explain.

Whether you realize it or not, you are infected with inflation mentality, which goes back to at least the 1970s. I can illustrate that for you:

Let's say your favorite loaf of bread at your local store costs $3 today. If you go back to that same store in ten years time and are able to buy a loaf of bread identical to today's, how much will you pay? Will it still cost $3 or will you pay more or less than $3?

Did you answer more? Why? Because you are conditioned to assuming that prices will keep rising. You would not have answered that way in 1937 and you probably would not answer that way today in Japan, where prices have been falling for many years.

What's wrong with that? It's true that inflation erodes the purchasing power of money, but as long as your income keeps up, rising prices are not the end of the world, are they?

There is a consequence of inflation that is far more sinister than the erosion of purchasing power and you are not even aware of it. Inflation sucks you into debt . Let me illustrate that for you as well:

Your car is three years old and you want to replace it, but you would rather wait another year. The new model costs $25,000, but you expect it could be $30,000 in a year's time. Will you wait another year and save up a further $5,000 cash, or will you go into debt and buy it now? You will almost certainly borrow and buy the new auto now, won't you? Why? Because you expect the price to rise. You go into more debt because of inflation. And you are infected with inflation mentality, which is the cause of the crazy, unsustainable debt bubble today. When you borrow that money from the bank, it is injected into the economy, increasing the money supply and fuelling yet more growth in consumer spending and thus the economy (and probably prices).

Now let's reverse that situation. Let's say you believe the price of that new auto you want will be lower next year. Say $20,000. Now will you be in such a hurry to buy it? No. You will almost certainly wait. And let's say in 12 months time you expect the price to fall even further in the following 12 months, say to $15,000? Chances are you will make the old jalopy last yet another year.

But you will not be the only person thinking this way. Everybody will be putting off buying a new car. To such an extent that auto makers, who have failed to increase sales, even by slashing prices, have to scale back production and lay off employees. And if auto workers lose their jobs, will they be able to spend as much on shoes and clothes and restaurants and gadgets? No. But stores need cash flow to pay their rent and wages, so “50% off” sales appear everywhere. But even they do not work, and retail stores also have to shed staff. And the more prices fall the more the consumer expects them to fall, so the more they put off buying everything that is not absolutely urgent. And so the economy begins to contract and unemployment rises, all because of deflation mentality .

The lifeblood of an economy is consumer borrowing and spending, which is fuelled by the ready availability of money. When the mindset changes from inflation mentality to deflation mentality, people not only stop spending. They stop borrowing. In fact, reckless abandon changes to conservatism, and they even try and speed up the repayment of loans they already have. This disappears money from the economy back to the banks from whence it came, and so reduces money supply.

And thus the economy spirals down into a deflationary recession or even worse. Every depression in history has been accompanied by deflation, not inflation.

In the 1930s, was there any shortage of goods? Not at all. Stores were fully stocked. Was there any shortage of manpower? Hardly. Unemployment reached 25%. So what caused the depression? What was in short supply? Only one thing. Money. And the only way money comes into existence is by way of a loan from a bank. When people are reducing their indebtedness rather than increasing it, money supply shrinks and the economy contracts. Interest rates can be reduced to zero (as in Japan in recent years), but if people lose the courage and the capacity to take on more debt, they will not borrow. This is called “pushing money on a string.”

In my book “How to Profit from the Coming Great Depression” one entire chapter is devoted to this subject of deflation. You will learn why the coming downturn is inevitable and what you can do to escape the most serious consequences.

The Graham Dyer Newsletter has not missed a month's publication since July 1983. His track record for forecasting is the envy of many, including the 1987 stock market crash, the demise of the Japanese economy and stock and real estate markets in the 1990s, the bull market for bonds from 1989, and the real estate boom this decade. His book is entitled: “How to Profit from the Coming Great Depression.” If you want to know the pitfalls of investing as well as the opportunities, Graham Dyer's world class work is a must read. For more of Graham's work you can visit his Blog at

Article Source:

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules