Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 – Part II - 15th Nov 19
America’s Exceptionalism’s Non-intervention Slide to Conquest, Empire - and Socialism - 15th Nov 19
Five Gold Charts to Contemplate as We Prepare for the New Year - 15th Nov 19
Best Gaming CPU Nov 2019 - Budget, Mid and High End PC System Processors - 15th Nov 19
Lend Money Without A Credit Check — Is That Possible? - 15th Nov 19
Gold and Silver Capitulation Time - 14th Nov 19
The Case for a Silver Price Rally - 14th Nov 19
What Happens To The Global Economy If the Oil Price Collapses Below $40 - 14th Nov 19
7 days of Free FX + Crypto Forecasts -- Join in - 14th Nov 19
How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader – SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas - 13th Nov 19
Morrisons Throwing Thousands of Bonus More Points at Big Spend Shoppers - JACKPOT! - 13th Nov 19
What to Do NOW in Case of a Future Banking System Breakdown - 13th Nov 19
Why China is likely to remain the ‘world’s factory’ for some time to come - 13th Nov 19
Gold Price Breaks Down, Waving Good-bye to the 2019 Rally - 12th Nov 19
Fed Can't See the Bubbles Through the Lather - 12th Nov 19
Double 11 Record Sales Signal Strength of Chinese Consumption - 12th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Oil, Gold and Stocks Investing – Part II - 12th Nov 19
Gold Retest Coming - 12th Nov 19
New Evidence Futures Markets Are Built for Manipulation - 12th Nov 19
Next 5 Year Future Proof Gaming PC Build Spec November 2019 - Ryzen 9 3900x, RTX 2080Ti... - 12th Nov 19
Gold and Silver - The Two Horsemen - 11th Nov 19
Towards a Diverging BRIC Future - 11th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Stock Market Investing - 11th Nov 19
Illiquidity & Gold And Silver In The End Game - 11th Nov 19
Key Things You Need to Know When Starting a Business - 11th Nov 19
Stock Market Cycles Peaking - 11th Nov 19
Avoid Emotional Investing in Cryptocurrency - 11th Nov 19
Australian Lithium Mines NOT Viable at Current Prices - 10th Nov 19
The 10 Highest Paying Jobs In Oil & Gas - 10th Nov 19
World's Major Gold Miners Target Copper Porphyries - 10th Nov 19
AMAZON NOVEMBER 2019 BARGAIN PRICES - WD My Book 8TB External Drive for £126 - 10th Nov 19
Gold & Silver to Head Dramatically Higher, Mirroring Palladium - 9th Nov 19
How Do YOU Know the Direction of a Market's Larger Trend? - 9th Nov 19
BEST Amazon SMART Scale To Aid Weight Loss for Christmas 2019 - 9th Nov 19
Why Every Investor Should Invest in Water - 8th Nov 19
Wait… Was That a Bullish Silver Reversal? - 8th Nov 19
Gold, Silver and Copper The 3 Metallic Amigos and the Macro Message - 8th Nov 19
Is China locking up Indonesian Nickel? - 8th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How To Buy Gold For $3 An Ounce

Stock Market Advantage Credit Spreads Weekly Update

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Jun 26, 2009 - 03:31 AM GMT

By: Angelo_Campione

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a market that went up 3.9% for the month, ACS just generated its best return this year at 10%. When you consider that at the start of the year the S&P opened at 902, if you'd simply bought and held, you'd be up less than 2.5% in 6 months and gone through a lot of anguish along the way. On the other hand, the ACS strategy has added 36.5% on an uncompounded basis and has done it relatively comfortably. At this point, the average return is 6.08% Per Month and right on track with the average we aim for of 6% per month.


We made some changes to the system late last year that has added a new dimension to this strategy and the results are speaking for themselves. In a market that's gone through major turmoil, it certainly hasn't been breeze for newsletter writers to produce consistent gains this year and so we remain humble that we have been able to do well under the circumstances.

It's certainly no time to get cocky, losses are always possible for any system and while we can't make any guarantees for future performance, we can state that we remain committed to being vigilant in producing the best returns for the lowest possible risk.

Here's the performance for ACS so far this year:

(Please note, this performance is raw, i.e. without brokerage/commissions taken into account)

To learn more, please click here.

Note, this service can also be auto-traded (without charge) through Think or Swim brokers.

On to the weekly report.

Current Positioning:

SPY: Short 50%
QQQQ: Short 50%

General Commentary:

The current market conditions underwent a break down of sorts during the week although support held and the up trends for all markets remain in place.

With trends holding, the potential for a rise to new highs from here is still quite possible, although in a wider scale, the down side potential remains greater than up side potential, so we continue to be wary of any rises.

On to the analysis..

SPX Chart - Bigger Picture

The bigger picture is showing how the downtrend line is passing through around the 960 region, this could be insurmountable resistance in the near term and if the downtrend channel drawn is correct, then chances are the target is around 800 for the medium term.

Note also that the linear MACD is approaching zero, if we are in fact in the middle of a bear market rally (as so many suspect), the MACD will begin to turn lower over the next month or so.

SPX Chart - Shorter Picture

The shorter term picture is at an interesting juncture, on the one hand support at 925 - 930 broke during the week, and on the other hand, support around 900 at the 50 and 200 DMA held.

If we can get a close above 930 this week, then the high between 950 and 960 will most likely be tested. Having said that, the MACD is showing negative divergence, which leads me to think that we'll be heading lower at some point soon. In the mean time we can still get a bounce here just to give the crowd the impression that the bull is alive and well. It's a tough one to call but watch for 900 to break in order for the bears to take control.

For this week, support on the SPX is 900 - 910 and resistance 930 - 960.

NDX Chart - Shorter Picture

The Nasdaq fell quickly during the week but found support around 1440. The uptrend channel remains in place and there is potential for this one to climb again.

If Friday's strength continues into the week ahead, we'll most likely close our shorts, as there is potential for a decent run up from here. What we're looking for is a close below 1440 as a sign that the bears are preparing to take control. Until then the bulls have the upper hand.

Note also that the MACD is potentially turning bullish from here. The start of the week should hold the key for the near term.

For the week ahead, support on the NDX is 1400 - 1440 and resistance is 1500.

The VIX Picture

The VIX spiked up early in the week giving the impression that the wheels were about to fall off the market, although by the end of the week it was back to where it finished the prior week.

While the MACD is showing the potential for a resumption of the downtrend, the most likely scenario is that we go sideways a little more and form a good base before heading higher. This scenario favors the probabilities that we'll see a significant drop in the markets within the next few months.

The VIX measures the premiums investors are willing to pay for option contracts and is essentially a measure of fear i.e. the higher the VIX, the higher the fear in the market place. It tends to move inversely with the markets.

Performance

I thought I'd begin a record of performance so that you can compare your own performance to ours. We'll begin with the current open positions:

QQQQ

SPY

Quote of the Week:

I thought I'd give a couple quotes this week for those celebrating Fathers day today:

Small boys become big men through the influence of big men who care about small boys. Fathers Day Quote by: Unknown

My father gave me the greatest gift anyone could give another person, he believed in me. Fathers Day Quote by: Jim Valvano

Feel free to email me at angelo@stockbarometer.com if you have any questions or comments.

If you are receiving these alerts on a free trial, you have access to all of our previous articles and recommendations by clicking here. If you do not recall your username and/or password, please email us at customersupport@stockbarometer.com. If you are interested in continuing to receive our service after your free trial, please click here.

By Angelo Campione

Angelo writes two newsletters. The Advantage Report, which is focused on market timing - if you ’re interested after reading this article, click on the links below to subscribe.


And Advantage Credit Spreads, which is focused on making 6-8% a month using credit spreads - and year to date Angelo has not had a losing month and is working on a 36.5% return through June - a little better than the market, I must say... Again, click on either of the links below if you’d like to try it out.

Important Disclosure
Futures, Options, Mutual Fund, ETF and Equity trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy/sell Futures, Options, Mutual Funds or Equities. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this Web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Performance results are hypothetical. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as a lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Investment Research Group and all individuals affiliated with Investment Research Group assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results.
Investment Research Group (IRG), as a publisher of a financial newsletter of general and regular circulation, cannot tender individual investment advice. Only a registered broker or investment adviser may advise you individually on the suitability and performance of your portfolio or specific investments.
In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and examination of the fact and records relating to such investments. Past performance of our recommendations is not an indication of future performance. The publisher shall have no liability of whatever nature in respect of any claims, damages, loss, or expense arising out of or in connection with the reliance by you on the contents of our Web site, any promotion, published material, alert, or update.
For a complete understanding of the risks associated with trading, see our Risk Disclosure.

© 2009 Copyright Angelo Campione - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules