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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

UK Interest Rates - The next rise to 5.75% to occur in...

Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates Jun 05, 2007 - 01:07 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Interest-Rates The Banks minutes and inflation report, and recent comments by the bank governer Mervyn King, all point towards to a further rise to 5.75%. The question is will interest rates rise this week ?


The Bank of England to date has only once raised interest rates in consecutive months, this therefore suggests a rise in June to be extremely unlikely. However the 3 month inter bank rate trading at 5.80% continues to trend higher, implying building pressures for a further rise in the near future, which points to a rise sooner than the target date of Sept 07.

UK Interest Rates - The next rise to 5.75% to occur in...

The Base Rate trend continues to lag UK Inflation which nudged above 16 year highs. So even the recent dip from 4.8% to 4.5% should not be taken as a sign of lessening interest rate pressures as the spread between Base rates and Inflation remains at historic lows, which suggests that we could even see a 0.5% rise in interest rates.

The bank's May inflation report confirmed a rate rise to 5.75% to bring CPI inflation back to its 2% target in two years. Therefore the bank is expected to delay inline with previous decisions to factor in more data before taking the decision to raise interest rates. This suggests that the next rise is most likely to occur in August 2007.

Remember to check back for our new long-term UK interest rate forecast to cover UK rates for the next 2 years.

Notes

Inflation report confirms further rise in UK Interest rates to 5.75% - May 07
 
UK strong house price growth signals further rises in interest rates - March 07
 
UK Interest Rate forecast for 2007 - Bank of England to do battle with inflation - Dec 06
 
UK Interest Rates could rise to 5.75% in 2007 - Nov 06
 
Interest Rates Correction is Over - March 2006
 
UK Long-term Interest Rates Trend is still UP ! - Nov 2005

 

By Nadeem Walayat
(c) MarketOracle.co.uk 2007

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