Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Seven Key Words That Explain "Stupidly High" Bond Market Prices - 23rd Aug 19
Is the Fed Too Late Prevent A US Housing Bear Market? - 23rd Aug 19
Manchester Airport FREE Drop Off Area Service at JetParks 1 - Video - 23rd Aug 19
Gold Price Trend Validation - 22nd Aug 19
Economist Lays Out the Next Step to Wonderland for the Fed - 22nd Aug 19
GCSE Exam Results Day Shock! How to Get 9 A*'s Grade 9's in England and Maths - 22nd Aug 19
KEY WEEK FOR US MARKETS, GOLD, AND OIL - Audio Analysis - 22nd Aug 19
USD/JPY, USD/CHF, GBP/USD Currency Pairs to Watch Prior to FOMC Minutes and Jackson Hole - 22nd Aug 19
Fed Too Late To Prevent US Real Estate Market Crash? - 22nd Aug 19
Retail Sector Isn’t Dead. It’s Growing and Pays 6%+ Dividends - 22nd Aug 19
FREE Access EWI's Financial Market Forecasting Service - 22nd Aug 19
Benefits of Acrobits Softphone - 22nd Aug 19
How to Protect Your Site from Bots & Spam? - 21st Aug 19
Fed Too Late To Prevent A US Housing Market Crash? - 21st Aug 19
Gold and the Cracks in the U.S., Japan and Germany’s Economic Data - 21st Aug 19
The Gold Rush of 2019 - 21st Aug 19
How to Play Interest Rates in US Real Estate - 21st Aug 19
Stocks Likely to Breakout Instead of Gold - 21st Aug 19
Top 6 Tips to Attract Followers On SoundCloud - 21st Aug 19
WAYS TO SECURE YOUR FINANCIAL FUTURE - 21st Aug 19
Holiday Nightmares - Your Caravan is Missing! - 21st Aug 19
UK House Building and House Prices Trend Forecast - 20th Aug 19
The Next Stock Market Breakdown And The Setup - 20th Aug 19
5 Ways to Save by Using a Mortgage Broker - 20th Aug 19
Is This Time Different? Predictive Power of the Yield Curve and Gold - 19th Aug 19
New Dawn for the iGaming Industry in the United States - 19th Aug 19
Gold Set to Correct but Internals Remain Bullish - 19th Aug 19
Stock Market Correction Continues - 19th Aug 19
The Number One Gold Stock Of 2019 - 19th Aug 19
The State of the Financial Union - 18th Aug 19
The Nuts and Bolts: Yield Inversion Says Recession is Coming But it May take 24 months - 18th Aug 19
Markets August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow – Are You Ready? - 18th Aug 19
JOHNSON AND JOHNSON - JNJ for Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing - 17th Aug 19
Negative Bond Market Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Stock Market Leadership - 17th Aug 19
Is Stock Market About to Crash? Three Charts That Suggest It’s Possible - 17th Aug 19
It’s Time For Colombia To Dump The Peso - 17th Aug 19
Gold & Silver Stand Strong amid Stock Volatility & Falling Rates - 16th Aug 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Fundamentals - 16th Aug 19
Silver, Transports, and Dow Jones Index At Targets – What Direct Next? - 16th Aug 19
When the US Bond Market Bubble Blows Up! - 16th Aug 19
Dark days are closing in on Apple - 16th Aug 19
Precious Metals Gone Wild! Reaching Initial Targets – Now What’s Next - 16th Aug 19
US Government Is Beholden To The Fed; And Vice-Versa - 15th Aug 19
GBP vs USD Forex Pair Swings Into Focus Amid Brexit Chaos - 15th Aug 19
US Negative Interest Rates Go Mainstream - With Some Glaring Omissions - 15th Aug 19
GOLD BULL RUN TREND ANALYSIS - 15th Aug 19
US Stock Market Could Fall 12% to 25% - 15th Aug 19
A Level Exam Results School Live Reaction Shock 2019! - 15th Aug 19
It's Time to Get Serious about Silver - 15th Aug 19
The EagleFX Beginners Guide – Financial Markets - 15th Aug 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The No 1 Gold Stock for 2019

Trading Carbon Emissions Allowances - The EUA Contract

Commodities / Climate Change Jul 23, 2009 - 05:57 AM GMT

By: Seven_Days_Ahead

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week in the Commodity Trading Guide we commenced regular coverage of EUA – (Carbon) Emissions Allowances. Interest and, accordingly, volume is growing strongly in this market, and the charts lend themselves well to technical analysis. In this Update we reproduce our analysis from the Guide.


The Commodity Trader’s view


MONTHLY CHART – CONTINUATION:
The interesting points to note here are:

  1. This long term chart has channelled very well – the base projection was briefly eroded in early 2009
  2.  If we’d been charting this much sooner we would have calculated a 8.52 equality target (33.05-12.22 downmove extended off 29.35 high)
  3.  For non-technical reasons there is currently a floor around 8.00

All the above combined to support the market - we now assume that a medium/long term recovery phase is underway.

 

WEEKLY CHART – CONTINUATION:

For clarity, the candlestick chart here reveals, bar a few ticks, a bearish Key Reversal Week in Jul-08, marking the start of the major leg down.

More recently there was another one in May, marking the start of the latest pullback phase.

Resistance from 15.85/16.22 is clear (May high and 38.2%).

- a break higher would bring into focus prior 18.25/18.80 lows and the 18.73 50% level, where we would expect further resistance to emerge.

Note how the start of the final downleg segment in late 2008 coincides with the 38.2% retracement – underlying Fibo forces at work?....Of course!

DAILY CHART – Dec-09::

Recently the market had stuck at the 38.2% pullback.

A s/term bull signal came from the break from the small bear channel top projection.

Last week saw resistance around the small 61.8% level; the next test for the bulls would be the small 76.4% level just above 15.00 – resistance soon would not surprise.

We don’t know yet if there is another downleg to come, that breaks below the 12.42 Jun low.

13.70 26-Jun high offers first support, but of more interest is the rising support line at 13.35 currently, ahead of that 38.2% area around 12.90.

A good close below the latter would show that another downleg was underway. Meanwhile we await better clarity in the s/term chart structure - we have adopted a sidelined stance for now. Interested readers are invited to track the progress of this market for a month, free of charge via our trial subscription offers. This would also qualify for a year’s free Updates too. Finally, note also the correlation between EUA and Crude Oil.

Philip Allwright
Mark Sturdy

Seven Days Ahead
Be sure to sign up for and receive these articles automatically at Market Updates

Mark Sturdy, John Lewis & Philip Allwright, write exclusively for Seven Days Ahead a regulated financial advisor selling professional-level technical and macro analysis and high-performing trade recommendations with detailed risk control for banks, hedge funds, and expert private investors around the world. Check out our subscriptions.

© 2009 Copyright Seven Days Ahead - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Seven Days Ahead Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules