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Stock Market Long Wave Theory 92% Right (On S&P 500); Buffett & Roubini 75% Wrong

Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis Aug 02, 2009 - 02:53 PM GMT

By: Andrew_Butter

Stock-Markets

January 2009 I thought I’d see if "market-long-wave" theory (which I previously only used for real estate), works for the US stock market.


Now that the Bears seem to have almost completely disappeared and the S&P 500 is flirting with 1,000 I thought I’d have a look and see how it did:

Looks like it works...new paradigm perhaps?

Notes on Scoring:
The one mistake with market-long-waves was in January when I misread the wave periodicity, I corrected that in February, so I'll count that as half (6.5 ÷ 7 = 92% right).

Warren Buffet's call for 900 in February was correct in principle, but in the long term (after five months), and there was a 25% drop in-between; so I'll give him half; Professor Roubini was 100% wrong about the dead-cat-bounce; so that's (1.5 ÷ 2 = 75% wrong).

Links:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8293.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9131.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9321.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9749.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10101.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10604.html

By Andrew Butter

Andrew Butter is managing partner of ABMC, an investment advisory firm, based in Dubai ( hbutter@eim.ae ), that he setup in 1999, and is has been involved advising on large scale real estate investments, mainly in Dubai.

© 2009 Copyright Andrew Butter- All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Andrew Butter Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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