Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Covid, Debt and Precious Metals - 3rd Jun 20
Gold-Silver Ratio And Correlation - 3rd Jun 20
The Corona Riots Begin, US Covid-19 Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 3rd Jun 20 -
Stock Market Short-term Top? - 3rd Jun 20
Deflation: Why the "Japanification" of the U.S. Looms Large - 3rd Jun 20
US Stock Market Sets Up Technical Patterns – Pay Attention - 3rd Jun 20
UK Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 2nd Jun 20
US Real Estate Stats Show Big Wave Of Refinancing Is Coming - 2nd Jun 20
Let’s Make Sure This Crisis Doesn’t Go to Waste - 2nd Jun 20
Silver and Gold: Balancing More Than 100 Years Of Debt Abuse - 2nd Jun 20
The importance of effective website design in a business marketing strategy - 2nd Jun 20
AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Buying Levels Q2 2020 - 1st Jun 20
M2 Velocity Collapses – Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up? - 1st Jun 20
The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum - 1st Jun 20
AMD 3900XT, 3800XT, 3600XT Refresh Means Zen 3 4000 AMD CPU's Delayed for 5nm Until 2021? - 1st Jun 20
Why Multi-Asset Brokers Like TRADE.com are the Future of Trading - 1st Jun 20
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stock Market Down Move has Potential?

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Sep 02, 2009 - 02:10 AM GMT

By: Jay_DeVincentis

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePotential?

The markets sold off hard on Tuesday, this move has potential.


Stock Barometer Analysis

The barometer is in Sell Mode. We issued an Intra Day update given the market’s weakness.

The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer signals.

Stock Barometer Cycle Time

Wednesday is day one in our down cycle.

The Stock Barometer signals follow 5, 8, 13, 21 and sometimes 34 day Fibonacci cycles that balance with 'normal' market cycles. Knowing where you are in the current market cycle is important in deciding how long you expect to maintain a position.

Potential Cycle Reversal Dates

2009 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/20, 2/11, 3/7, 3/15, 4/8, 4/16, 4/27, 5/7, 6/8, 7/2, 7/17, 9/14. We publish these dates up to 2 months in advance.

Well, since we’ve moved into Sell Mode, we’re looking for the markets to move lower into 9/14. Also expect a retest of those lows around 9/21.

My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.

2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.

Spread Indicators

Use the following spread/momentum indicators to assist in your trading of the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.

QQQQ Spread Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ)



The QQQQ Spread Indicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be different from the Stock Barometer. It's meant to give us an idea of the next turn in the market.

Gold Spread Indicator (AMEX:GLD)



Want to trade Gold? Use our signals with the Gold ETF AMEX:GLD. Gold gives us a general gage to the overall health of the US Economy and the markets.

US Dollar Index Spread Indicator (INDEX:DXY)




Want to trade the US Dollar? Use our signals with the Power Shares AMEX:UUP: US Dollar Index Bullish Fund and AMEX:UDN: US Dollar Index Bearish Fund.

Bonds Spread Indicator (AMEX:TLT)



Want to trade Bonds? Use our signals with Lehman’s 20 year ETF AMEX:TLT. The direction of bonds has an impact on the stock market. Normally, as bonds go down, stocks will go up and as bonds go up, stocks will go down.

OIL Spread Indicator (AMEX:USO)



Want to trade OIL? Use our signals with AMEX:USO, the OIL ETF. We look at the price of oil as its level and direction has an impact on the stock market.

Supporting Secondary Indicator



We daily monitor hundreds of popular and proprietary technical indicators that break down market internals, sentiment and money flow to give us unique insight into the market. We feature at least one here each day in support of our current outlook.

Summary of Daily Outlook

We’ve issued an intra day sell signal, placing us in Sell Mode. Our next key reversal date is 9/14, so we’ll look for a move lower into that date.

We were expecting some seasonal weakness to manifest itself later in September, however, if you can remember back to September 2000, from the first day on into July 2002, the markets moved lower. Not saying I expect it here, just recalling that period...

This move lower still has a chance to reverse. I look at bearish moves as not starting so abruptly, so apparently, so obvious. This has a different feel, so we’ll keep a tight leash on this trade and close it on too much of a bounce.

Regards,

If you have any questions or comments, email me at Jay@stockbarometer.com.

Regards,

By Jay DeVincentis


Stock Barometer Premier Membership Receive 5 Newsletters, including the Daily Stock Barometer, Stock Options Speculator, QQQQ/Rydex Trader, Market Chat & Explosive Stock Alert FOR ONE LOW PRICE.


Important Disclosure
Futures, Options, Mutual Fund, ETF and Equity trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy/sell Futures, Options, Mutual Funds or Equities. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this Web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Performance results are hypothetical. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as a lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Investment Research Group and all individuals affiliated with Investment Research Group assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results.
Investment Research Group (IRG), as a publisher of a financial newsletter of general and regular circulation, cannot tender individual investment advice. Only a registered broker or investment adviser may advise you individually on the suitability and performance of your portfolio or specific investments.
In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and examination of the fact and records relating to such investments. Past performance of our recommendations is not an indication of future performance. The publisher shall have no liability of whatever nature in respect of any claims, damages, loss, or expense arising out of or in connection with the reliance by you on the contents of our Web site, any promotion, published material, alert, or update.
For a complete understanding of the risks associated with trading, see our Risk Disclosure.

© 2009 Copyright Jay DeVincentis - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules