Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
8 Stock Market Indicators in 1: Here's the Message of the Panic/Euphoria Model - 19th Apr 21
Gold - You Can Win a Battle, but Still Lose the War - 19th Apr 21
Will Interest Rates Rally Further Push Gold Price Down? - 19th Apr 21
Gold Fireworks Doubt the Official Inflation Story - 19th Apr 21
YuanPay Team Discuss The Process Of Crypto Diversification - 19th Apr 21
Central Banks May Ramp Up Gold Buying - 18th Apr 21
How to Get Rid of Driveway Weeds With Just WATER! 6 Months later NO Weeds, Ultimate Killer! - 18th Apr 21
State of the European Markets - DAX, FTSE, CAC, AEX, SMI, IBEX 35, S&P/MIB, Euro Stoxx 50, RTS - 18th Apr 21
Einvestment Fund: What You Need To Know About Investments - 18th Apr 21
Google Alphabet (GOOG) AI Deep Mind Stock Trend Analysis - 17th Apr 21
Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot - 17th Apr 21
Best Smartphone Selfie Stick Tripod Review by ATUMTEK Works with Samsung Galaxy and Iphone - 17th Apr 21
How to Give Budgie's First Bath | Easy Budgie Bathing and Water Training with Lettuce - 17th Apr 21
Record-breaking Decrease in New Passenger Vehicle Sale in Europe - 17th Apr 21
US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs - 16th Apr 21
Gold’s Singular Role - 16th Apr 21
See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like - 16th Apr 21
Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? - 16th Apr 21
What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation - 16th Apr 21
Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? - 16th Apr 21
Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors - 15th Apr 21
Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? - 15th Apr 21
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up - 15th Apr 21
Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength - 15th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations - 14th Apr 21
Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive - 14th Apr 21
The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout - 14th Apr 21
U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History - 14th Apr 21
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? - 14th Apr 21
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally - 14th Apr 21
Stocks are Heating Up - 14th Apr 21
Two Methods in Calculating For R&D Tax Credits - 14th Apr 21
Stock Market Minor Correction Due - 13th Apr 21
How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK - 13th Apr 21
Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets - 13th Apr 21
How to Get Rich with the Pareto Distribution - Tesco Example - 13th Apr 21
Litecoin and Bitcoin-Which Is Better? - 13th Apr 21
The Major Advantages Of Getting Your PhD Online - 12th Apr 21
Covid-19 Pandemic Current State for UK, US, Europe, Brazil Vaccinations vs Lockdown's Third Wave - 12th Apr 21
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention - 12th Apr 21
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar - 12th Apr 21
Another Gold Stocks Upleg - 12th Apr 21
AMD The ZEN Tech Stock - 12th Apr 21
Overclockers UK Build Quality - Why Glue Fan to CPU Heat sink Instead of Using Supplied Clips? - 12th Apr 21 -
What are the Key Capabilities You Should Look for in Fleet Management Software? - 12th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Gold? - 12th Apr 21
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21
The History of Bitcoin Hard Forks - 10th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stocks: A House Built on Shaky Ground - 9th Apr 21
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback - 9th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Unlimited? - 9th Apr 21
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 Evolving Trends For Mobile Casinos - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Analysis - 8th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? - 8th Apr 21
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally - 8th Apr 21
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation - 8th Apr 21
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II - 8th Apr 21
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs - 8th Apr 21
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back - 8th Apr 21
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? - 8th Apr 21
Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits - 7th Apr 21
Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE- 7th Apr 21
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies - 7th Apr 21
Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit - 7th Apr 21
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger - 7th Apr 21
Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success - 7th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market The Insider Selling Fallacy Exposed

Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment Sep 03, 2009 - 11:58 AM GMT

By: Q1_Publishing

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe market rally has been strong and the bears continue to look for anything that could signal the downturn they’ve been waiting for months on to come.

The latest “it makes sense on paper” market myth the bears have clung onto has been insider trading activity.
Insider trading is when corporate insiders like directors and executives buy or sell their own companies stock. It’s legal, regulated, and the insiders must disclose within four days of when they buy or sell their companies shares.


The basic rationale is: Insiders know their company best. They see the day-to-day operations, the sales rates, expenses, and everything else. They know their business better than anyone else because that’s what they do. So it’s a bullish sign when they buy their own company’s stock and a bearish sign when they sell out.

It makes sense and it has been attracting a lot of attention lately – not very good attention though.

Insiders Rush for Exit

The recent rally has presented many investors with the opportunity to reallocate their portfolios. Insiders have jumped at the opportunity.
TrimTabs research has found that insiders unloaded $6.1 billion worth of stock in August. That’s the highest rate of insider selling in 16 months.

More importantly, insiders haven’t been buying much either. Trimbabs also found the ratio of insider selling relative to insider buying has surged to 30-to-1. That’s the highest the ratio has hit in five years.

Charles Biderman, the CEO of Trimtabs, pointed out in the New York Times in Some Analysts See an End to Market Rally that, “You have a classic case of greed stampeding investors into believing that nirvana is at hand. We just don’t see how the market’s going to last.”

But what does massive insider selling really tell us?

The Truth About Insider Buying and Selling

We know there are plenty of stock market myths which are perpetuated over time to match whatever the market sentiment is. Insider selling might be the myth du jour.

Thankfully, insider selling has had a long track record to which we can see whether it’s something to be concerned about now.

For instance, I recently came across this Associated Press report:

Rampant Insider Selling Raises Red Flags

Major Corporate Execs, Including Some from the Homebuilding Industry Are Dumping Stocks - Serious Predictor of a Coming Crash
You’d think it was a recent headline. There’s been a recent wave of insider selling, homebuilders have been big winners, and fears of another crash are still high.

It is, however, from December 2004. That was over a year before the peak in housing. And it came at a time when the S&P 500 was at 1200 and almost three years before its recent peak at well over 1500.

In more current times, insiders haven’t been very trigger shy about pushing the selling button either. Back in June Bloomberg reported: Insiders exit at the fastest pace in two years.

Here we are two months later and the market has held up exceptionally well.

On the other side, insider buying isn’t always bullish either. For instance, corporate insiders in the retail sector recently saw a big “opportunity” to load up on company shares.

Bloomberg reported: Insider Buying of Retailers, Led by Dillard's, Climbs:

Consumer confidence is falling, the odds of a recession have risen, analysts predict the worst holiday shopping since 2002 -- and retail-industry executives are buying their companies' shares like never before.

Limited Brands Inc. Chief Executive Officer Leslie Wexner and eight other executives bought a record amount of stock last month after prices fell to a four-year low. Dillard's Inc. director Warren Stephens made the biggest insider purchase ever as shares of the Little Rock, Arkansas-based department store chain headed for the steepest decline since at least 1980.

A lot of retail executives saw opportunity, but this article is from December 2007. That was two months into the official recession. And the moves haven’t proven to be very wise since. Dillard’s (NYSE:DDS) went on to fall 75% and is still down 40 from then. The retail sector as a whole has been lagging well behind too.

Of course, these examples are just that – examples. They’re hardly enough to define a true trend.

The chart below from Sentimentrader.com shows a much better picture of the trend and the relative importance (using that terminology very loosely here) of insider buying and selling as an indicator for the overall market direction:

Investing 101: Let History Be the Judge

As you can see, insider buying and selling trends have been very volatile over the past decade. There have been plenty of times when insider buying and selling is at the right time and at the worst possible time.

This time should be no different. The wave of insider selling and lack of insider buying may be a warning sign or may simply be what it always has been - something to be aware of.

In the 100% free Prosperity Dispatch we believe in letting history be our guide when it comes to whether popular market indicators are worthwhile in guiding our decisions.

Good investing,

Andrew Mickey
Chief Investment Strategist, Q1 Publishing

Disclosure: Author currently holds a long position in Silvercorp Metals (SVM), physical silver, and no position in any of the other companies mentioned.

Q1 Publishing is committed to providing investors with well-researched, level-headed, no-nonsense, analysis and investment advice that will allow you to secure enduring wealth and independence.

© 2009 Copyright Q1 Publishing - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Q1 Publishing Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules