Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19
US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - 16th June 19
Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting - 16th June 19
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 16th June 19
Fethiye Market Fruit, Veg, Spices and Turkish Delight Tourist Shopping - 16th June 19
US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis - 15th June 19
Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals - 15th June 19
The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline - 15th June 19
Fire Insurance Claims: What Are the Things a Fire Claim Adjuster Does? - 15th June 19
How To Find A Trustworthy Casino? - 15th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video - 14th June 19
Gold and Silver, Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff! - 14th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - Video - 14th June 19
The American Dream Is Alive and Well - in China - 14th June 19
Keeping the Online Gaming Industry in Line - 14th June 19
How Acquisitions Affect Global Stocks - 14th June 19
Please Don’t Buy the Dip in Nvidia or Other Chip Stocks - 14th June 19
A Big Thing in Investor Education is Explainer Videos - 14th June 19
IRAN - The Next American War - 13th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match Contest - 13th June 19
Top Best VPN Services You Can Choose For Your iPhone - 13th June 19
Tory Leadership Contest Betting Markets Forecast - Betfair - 13th June 19
US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation - 13th June 19
Which Stocks Will Lead The Cannabis Rebound? - 13th June 19
The Privatization of US Indo-Pacific Vision - Project 2049, Armitage, Budget Ploys and Taiwan Nexus - 12th June 19
Gold Price Breaks to the Upside - 12th June 19
Top Publicly Traded Casino Company Stocks for 2019 - 12th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - 12th June 19
Why Blue-Chip Dividend Stocks Aren’t as Safe as You Think - 12th June 19
Technical Analysis Shows Aug/Sept Stock Market Top Pattern Should Form - 12th June 19
FTSE 100: A Top European Index - 12th June 19
Gold Surprise! - 11th June 19
How Forex Indicators are Getting Even More Attention in the Market? - 11th June 19
Stock Market Storm Clouds on the Horizon - 11th June 19
Is Your Financial Security Based On A Double Aberration? - 11th June 19
What If Stocks Are Wrong About Interest Rate Cuts? - 11th June 19
US House Prices Yield Curve, Debt, QE4EVER! - 11th June 19
Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone - 11th June 19
U.S. Dollar Stall is Good for Commodities - 11th June 19
Fed Running Out of Time and Conventional Weapons - 11th June 19
Trade Wars Propelling Stock Markets to New Highs - 11th June 19
Best Travel Bags for Summer Holidays 2019, Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt, tactical - 11th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Gold and How Good is Your Analyst?

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 Sep 08, 2009 - 01:10 PM GMT

By: Peter_Degraaf


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHave you thought of a good way to rate your analyst?  There are currently over 300 financial analysts on the various financial websites, ready to share their wisdom with you and help you decide whether to buy, hold or sell.

From letters I have received I can conclude that some of you read everything that anyone is posting on these websites.  That’s a lot of reading!  There has to be a better way - and there is a better way. 

The only tool you need is a spreadsheet, or a notepad.  Whenever you read someone’s analysis covering the sector of the market that you are interested in, mark down the specific predictions and expectations that this analyst puts in front of you, especially where dates and prices are supplied.  Build up a file on each of the analysts that you now follow.  Most financial websites compile an archive of all of the articles published.  Go back and read what he or she said in recent months.  This is a good way to find out what a particular analyst predicted or concluded in the past.  Then be sure and mark it down.

After a while put a red “X” on the page of any analyst who was wrong about a prediction 50% of the time or more.  Especially mark down any major blunders.  Before too long by selecting the prescient analysts and deleting the rest, you will end up with the ‘cream of the crop,’ and your investment decisions will no longer be made in bewilderment, due to the many conflicting bits of advice that you are currently subjecting yourself to, if you are not being selective.

Best of all, you will spend less time in front of the computer, and more time on the beach.

It is our custom to always include at least one chart in our essays, and for today   we have selected two charts.  The first is the index that compares gold to the 30 year bond price.   (Chart courtesy

Since late 2002 the trend turned decidedly in favor of gold.  The green arrow points to the time when the 50 week moving average rose above the 200 week moving average for ‘positive divergence’ that is ongoing today.  Ever since that day it made sense to sell bonds and put the money into gold. 

        The blue arrow points to the resistance level that has held up the advance since early 2008.  Now that gold is rising above $1,000.00 an ounce it is only a matter of time till this index breaks out at 8.5.  This will cause many more people to dump bonds and buy gold.   At the bottom of the chart we see how closely the trend in the index is tied to the gold price itself.

The most bullish development for gold and silver bulls is the knowledge that China is interested in converting some of its huge stash of US dollars into gold and silver.  They cannot rush in and buy large quantities because this would drive the price up too high.  They have to be content to ‘buy the dips’.  This puts a floor under both gold and silver and reduces the threat of commercial traders and bullion banks forcing the price drastically lower, as they were able to do in the past.  If gold and silver prices were manipulated downward in the past, the end result will be that they will then rise higher than they would otherwise have risen.  This is because low prices discourage new production.  It takes high prices to entice people to invest in new production.  In the case of gold and silver it takes a lot of money and a lot of time before gold and silver can be discovered and brought above ground.

Chart courtesy Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

As the chart clearly shows, the printing presses are still working at full speed.  Nothing like this amount of currency degradation has ever happened in the USA on this scale before.  As long as the rate of mortgage foreclosures remains high, along with a rising unemployment rate, we can count on the Federal Reserve to ‘keep on printing.’

Note:  At my website we are delighted with the popularity of the two latest features:

#1   the stock pick of the week.

#2   my expectations for the future.

Come and visit at your convenience.

“The opinions of ten thousand men are of no value, if none of them know anything about the subject.”  Marcus Aurelius, Roman Emperor from 161 – 180 AD.

Happy trading!

By Peter Degraaf

Peter Degraaf is an on-line stock trader with over 50 years of investing experience. He issues a weekend report on the markets for his many subscribers. For a sample issue send him an E-mail at , or visit his website at where you will find many long-term charts, as well as an interesting collection of Worthwhile Quotes that make for fascinating reading.

DISCLAIMER: Please do your own due diligence. I am NOT responsible for your trading decisions.

Peter Degraaf Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules