Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19
Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why - 13th July 19
Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? - 13th July 19
Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part - 13th July 19
Key Stage 2 SATS Tests Results Grades and Scores GDS, EXS, WTS Explained - 13th July 19
INTEL Stock Investing in Qubits and AI Neural Network Processors - Video - 12th July 19
Gold Price Selloff Risk High - 12th July 19
State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable - 12th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State - 12th July 19
Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? - 11th July 19
Platinum Price vs Gold Price - 11th July 19
What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing - 11th July 19
Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing - 11th July 19
This Tobacco Stock Is a Big Winner from E-Cigarette Bans - 11th July 19
Investing in Life Extending Pharma Stocks - 11th July 19
How to Pay for It All: An Option the Presidential Candidates Missed - 11th July 19
Mining Stocks Flash Powerful Signal for Gold and Silver Markets - 11th July 19
5 Surefire Ways to Get More Viewers for Your Video Series - 11th July 19
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 10th July 19
Crude Oil Prices and the 2019 Hurricane Season - 10th July 19
Can Gold Recover from Friday’s Strong Payrolls Hit? - 10th July 19
Netflix’s Worst Nightmare Has Come True - 10th July 19
LIMITLESS - Improving Cognitive Function and Fighting Brain Ageing Right Now! - 10th July 19
US Dollar Strength Will Drive Markets Higher - 10th July 19
Government-Pumped Student Loan Bubble Sets Up Next Financial Crisis - 10th July 19
Stock Market SPX 3000 Dream is Pushed Away: Pullback of 5-10% is Coming - 10th July 19
July 2019 GBPUSD Market Update and Outlook - 10th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Gold Warning, Risk of 50% Retracement to $650

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 Sep 13, 2009 - 10:43 AM GMT

By: Ronald_Rosen

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“The Concept of Probability in the Mathematical Representation of Reality”   by Hans Reichenbach

"Real mathematics is not crunching numbers but contemplating them - and the mystery of their connections."  ---Charles Krauthammer, Pulitzer Prize winning essayist


“The natural world is loaded with patterns. From leaves on plants to the shape of a nautilus shell, numbers can help us to describe and understand these patterns. In 1202 A.D., Leonardo Fibonacci discovered a unique mathematical sequence that has importance today. It is one way in which many of nature's most beautiful, strange, and seemingly unrelated objects show similarities.”Fibonacci WebQuest
   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There are numerical realities that have occurred in the past that we know with absolute certainty have taken place. If these realities show a consistent pattern we can project them into the future and reach reasonable probabilities based on past behavior.

Since the bottom at $256 in the quarter ending 3/31/2001, the quarterly chart of gold has reached a peak in subsequent quarters 5, 8, 13, and 21. Each peak was followed by a correction of at least one quarter.

The next peak is due in quarter number 34. That peak is due this month, September 2009. I believe it is a reasonable probability that this peak, which should be a new all time high, should be labeled the [B] wave high of the [A], [B], [C] correction that I have been writing about.

Elliott Wave Theory is based on Fibonacci mathematics. Whatever the eventual correct wave count looks like, we can not deny the past. This bull market in gold has proven to us that since the bottom at $256.00 in the March quarter of 2001 a peak followed by a correction has occurred in quarters 5, 8, 13, and 21. It is my contention that the highest probability is that there will be another peak in quarter 34 followed by a correction. In spite of all other projections from all sources, I can not envision a higher probability than a correction following gold bullion making a temporary peak and a new high in September 2009 which is quarter number 34. 

     “Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse.”    W.D.Gann

A peak followed by a correction has occurred in quarters 5, 8, 13, and 21.

There may be another new high in quarter 34 followed by a correction.

     GOLD QUARTERLY CHART # 1

This chart depicts a reasonable wave count based on obvious turning points.

  GOLD QUARTERLY CHART # 2

Wave FOUR has the potential for retracing approximately 50% of the rise of wave THREE.

    GOLD QUARTERLY CHART # 3

Subscriptions to the Rosen Market Timing Letter with the Delta Turning Points for gold, silver, stock indices, dollar index, crude oil and many other items are available at: www.wilder-concepts.com/rosenletter.aspx

By Ron Rosen

M I G H T Y I N S P I R I T

Simeon - A Picture of Patience

Ronald L. Rosen served in the U.S.Navy, with two combat tours Korean War. He later graduated from New York University and became a Registered Representative, stock and commodity broker with Carl M. Loeb, Rhodes & Co. and then Carter, Berlind and Weill. He retired to become private investor and is a director of the Delta Society International

Disclaimer: The contents of this letter represent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair Gilbert  Nothing contained herein is intended as investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair Gilbert are not registered investment advisors. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed to be reliable, but Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair Gilbert cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.

Ronald Rosen Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

khen
13 Sep 09, 19:10
gold

Your wave count is incorrect. Gold is just now entering wave 3 up. The upside breakout from the wedge formation counts to $1300 for gold. I hope you have stop loss on your bearish trade since 1300 is twice 650. khen,cfa


andy
14 Sep 09, 10:53
narrow

it's completely asinine to make predictions on gold based solely on charts without looking at various fundamentals at play



16 Sep 09, 01:43
gold

You are completely wrong.Look at the gold price right now!


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules