Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Should One be a Pessimist or Realist In Todays Economy?

Commodities / Commodities Trading Sep 16, 2009 - 06:09 AM GMT

By: Andrew_Abraham


I would say I would like to be the “Realist”. As a trend following commodity trading advisor I am not one to make predictions. Everything that I have ever learned about trading is follow my system make low risk bets and look to manage risk.

I nor anyone know the future but regarding the US dollar, Bonds and even the stock market I have serious misgivings. I do not put out of the context there can be the potential for shocking falls in stock markets, in the US dollar or even in bond markets. These falls could create major opportunities for trend following commodity trading advisors as well as a way to protect net wealth from inflation.

I would never want the name “Doom and Gloom” but for those people who want only good news I strongly suggest that you listen to politicians or watch CNBC or Bloomberg. Close this site down. Do not read it…put your head in the sand.

My proverbial question is, Where were all the experts before the economic crisis hit? These “optimists” whether they are politicians, world bankers or speakers on CNBC/ Bloomberg make their living based on good news and this is why they will continually tell you lies and never warn you about the risks. There were only a handful such as Nouriel Roubini, Jim Rogers, John Paulson and a just a handful of others that expressed their concerns. In all truthfulness I was very uncomfortable in 2006. I sold my house for almost 3 times the price I paid in 1999. This was not normal. As well I cut back the majority of my real estate holdings. The last 20% has been a nightmare. I feel the same level of extreme nervousness …maybe even more now. My job as a commodity trading advisor is to manage risk. However I think I have entered a new level of responsibility.

I feel it is my responsibility not just to understand risks but warn investors when risk is unacceptably high. in my opinion the risks seem extremely high! The fact is that credit & debt have grown exponentially over the years. The next fact is that bank leverage is 50 times or more, how can this not be very high risk. The next fact is the un-regulated derivatives that reach countless $ 1trillion( AIG) with almost no counter party or no reserves against them.. There is one word..” RUN”. The question “Run” where? What is safe? Are the banks safe with all the non performing residential mortgages? Or possibly up coming commercial real estate problems.. Or not to mention credit cards with no actual collateral other than a person’s good credit at risk.

The problem is the investing public has gotten spoiled. It has been easy in the stock market since the early 1980s.. Real estate has been easy with the low interest rates and the easy credit. I remember investors complaining about only making 20%. Today investors are happy to get 2% if that. I can not remember ever when governments in the world expanded deficits and credit to the extent that we are seeing now. Too many countries are running budget deficits and have tremendous debts too pay that are virtually impossible to repay. Just the US will need at least $3 trillion..This does not include Spain…the UK…Eastern Europe and countless other countries.

These budget deficits do not take into account more bailouts… more rescues of banks, upcoming corporate failures, pension fund failures, insurance company failures, cities bankruptcies or even states bankruptcies ( California). How much longer will China just sit back? They are one of the largest funders of the US debt. The Chinese have been leaking to the news about floating the Yuan or expressing their concerns about the US dollar. Both the Chinese and the Americans know that there is no way whatsoever that the US can reduce their deficits and dollar printing. True catch 22!

The Chinese how ever have been buying gold and encouraging their citizens to buy gold. For some reason, I have not heard anything like this coming out of the states. So will all these great news (fear) what should one do? As I stated in the beginning of the post, if my fears come to fruition I would expect commodity trading advisors who are trend followers to do well. Trend followers do not predict. They react. Commodity trading advisors that trend follow ride the fear and greed.

I can be totally wrong about the current debts and deficits. I do not trade my beliefs but rather my trend following system. It might be worthwhile to consider trend following as a way to protect your assets if potentially the scenario I see unfolding comes to actuality.

Andrew Abraham

Andrew Abraham has been in the financial arena since 1990. He is a commodity trading ddvisor and co manager of a Commodity Pool. Since 1993 Andrew has been a proponent of quantitative mechanical trading programs. Andrew's major concern is not only total return on investment but rather the amount of risk that one would have to tolerate in order to achieve returns He focuses on developing quant models that encompass strict risk adherence and correlation. He has been a speaker at conferences as well as an author of numerous articles. Andrew has spent years researching ideas that have the potential to outperform indices as well as maintain fewer draw downs.

Visit Angus Jackson Partners ( Contact: (

© 2009 Copyright Andrew Abraham - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in