Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
US Treasury Bonds Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally - 18th Oct 19
The Biggest Housing Boom in US History Has Just Begun - 18th Oct 19
British Pound Brexit Chaos GBP Trend Forecast - 18th Oct 19
Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment - 17th Oct 19
Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Future Projected Cycles - 17th Oct 19
Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report - 17th Oct 19
What Makes United Markets Capital Different From Other Online Brokers? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 16th Oct 19
This Is Not a Money Printing Press - 16th Oct 19
Online Casino Operator LeoVegas is Optimistic about the Future - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - Video - 16th Oct 19
$100 Silver Has Come And Gone - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500 - 16th Oct 19
10 Best Trading Schools and Courses for Students - 16th Oct 19
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis - 15th Oct 19
The Many Aligning Signals in Gold - 15th Oct 19
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

I Like My Information Sliced Thin

InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade Sep 18, 2009 - 07:33 AM GMT

By: Charles_Maley


Painting can’t be taught, only found – PICASSO

I was watching the New England Patriot/Buffalo Bills game last night, and it dawned on me just how good professional football players are at adapting to unforeseen changes to their game plan. When necessary, professionals (in any game) will act out of instinct without hesitation. They know it’s crucial to trust yourself when your game plan is threatened, otherwise no decisions are made.

Sigmund Freud said the unconscious mind is usually associated with secondary activity in the brain. We tend to carry out things in the unconscious that we decided to do in the conscious.

There is another form of the unconscious however, called “the adaptive unconscious.” This mental process acts in a primary fashion, influencing our judgment and decisions, and explains good intuitions and instincts. Also, the adaptive unconscious acts a lot faster and without as much effort, like a big computer.

These feelings are natural and should not be second guessed or ignored. After all, they are based on the culmination of all our experiences, just like data stored in a computer. Yet somehow we tend to think they are not as valuable as quantitative analysis. The gut feel and snap decision are just not taken seriously in the decision making world. In fact, we unconsciously make things up to substantiate our behavior in a more scientific fashion.

Malcolm Gladwell, in his book Blink, illustrates this “introspection illusion” with a rather amusing example. When interviewed as to how he became perhaps the best hitter of all time, Ted Williams was more than happy to share.

Ted explained how he would look the ball onto the bat, that he could track the ball until it made contact. Now, even though Ted said this with complete confidence, he’s just plain wrong. In the final feet that a baseball comes at a player, it is too close and fast to see at all. The player is effectively blind.

When confronted with the study that proved a human can’t track the ball onto the bat, Ted responded by saying “Well, I guess it just seemed like I could do that.” Like Picasso said, Ted could not teach how, but he certainly found how, to hit a baseball.
Gladwell reveals in his book Blink, that “great decision makers aren’t those who process the most information, or spend the most time deliberating, but those that have perfected the art of “thin slicing”- filtering the very few factors that matter from an overwhelming number of variables”.

I think we love to explain things that really have no explanation. It lends more credibility to whatever it is we have done. It makes us appear less lucky. Sometimes however, we just can do things, and this should be given equal weight to any formal analysis. Do your homework and have a game plan, but trust your intuitions.

Charles Maley Visit my blog!

Charles has been in the financial arena since 1980. Charles is a Partner of Angus Jackson Partners, Inc. where he is currently building a track record trading the concepts that has taken thirty years to learn. He uses multiple trading systems to trade over 65 markets with multiple risk management strategies. More importantly he manages the programs in the “Real World”, adjusting for the surprises of inevitable change and random events. Charles keeps a Blog on the concepts, observations, and intuitions that can help all traders become better traders.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules