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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Banking Cartels Angst Equals Investor Advantage

Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation Sep 18, 2009 - 02:26 PM GMT

By: DeepCaster_LLC

Stock-Markets

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“Consider the dramatic decline in the value of the dollar since The Fed was established (Ed. 1913). The goods and services you could buy for $1 in 1913 now cost nearly $21. We might say that the government and its banking cartel have together stolen 95 cents of every dollar as they have pursued a relentlessly inflating policy.”- Rep. Ron Paul, American Conservative, October, 2009


“In the U.S. and many other countries, the too-big-to-fail banks have become even bigger,” Stiglitz maintains.

“The problems are worse than they were in 2007 before the crisis.”

Other experts share the Columbia University economist’s concerns, including former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker and Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer.

They worry the government has not only sanctioned banks as too big to fail, but made them even bigger and riskier with taxpayer assistance.

For example, a year after nearly collapsing, Bank of America has grown and Citigroup has barely shrunk, Bloomberg reports.

“We aren’t doing anything significant so far, and the banks are pushing back,” Stiglitz said.

Stiglitz called U.S. policy “an outrage,” given all the taxpayer money poured into banks. “The administration seems very reluctant to do what is necessary.”

Former IMF chief economist Simon Johnson shares Stiglitz’ bleak view. What Wall Street has learned, Johnson told ABC News, "is they can sell their stock to the government at some relatively high price the next time there's a problem.

‘This is going to encourage more crazy irresponsible risk-taking. A big chunk of the financial system has become a giant casino that you really don't need for a productive, functioning economy." (emphasis added)

Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz quoted on Newsmax.com 9/14/09

“…strong evidence of ongoing and deepening crises continues, with the purported good news rarely more than fluff…

…the current economic downturn is the longest since the first downleg of the Great Depression in the early 1930s. Where year-to-year comparisons now are against severely negative patterns the year before, year-to-year percent declines have started to show some bottom bouncing, such as seen in retail sales and in housing, but there the level of activity has plateaued at extremely low, often at record low levels. These series are showing severe bottom-bouncing, not economic recovery…

… Other series such as payroll employment and even the latest heavily politicized GDP reporting have continued to sink in terms of year-to-year growth…

… the White House’s blog page, "Good News from the Beige Book." Touting that the Fed’s latest survey "indicated an improving economy"… The Fed’s report, however, was one that indicated primarily economic bottom-bouncing, not a growing economy…

As to the financial markets, recent weakness in the U.S. dollar and strength in gold might be suggestive of foreign investors being increasingly less willing to buy into the U.S. markets (with resulting downside market liquidity risk, upside U.S. interest rate risk as seen in 1987). Indeed, the stock market has been relatively strong, but it certainly it his heavily hyped and manipulated. Underlying economic fundamentals could not be much worse. Further, with regular bank loans to businesses and consumers in record contraction, with the broad money supply measures in monthly contraction, and with the Fed attempting to spike systemic liquidity with near-record growth in the monetary base, there are solid signals in place that the systemic solvency crisis once again may be intensifying, irrespective of the happy talk out of Treasury Secretary Geithner, President Obama and Fed Chairman Bernanke…”

“The structural problems impairing consumer liquidity are getting worse and impose severe constraints on U.S. economic activity. Accordingly, the current economic downturn — already the longest and deepest since the first downleg of the Great Depression in the 1930s — will continue to be particularly protracted and deep, as well as unresponsive to traditional stimuli (see http://www.shadowstats.com/article/depression-special-report).

Income drives consumption, and sustainable real, or inflation-adjusted, growth in economic activity requires sustained real growth in consumer income. Shy of income growth, temporary economic growth can be supported by debt expansion or liquidation of savings. Recent economic reporting has shown not only that real growth in household income has failed to keep up with inflation, but that consumer debt and net worth are contracting at paces previously not seen in the post-World War II era.” (emphasis added)

JOHN WILLIAMS’ SHADOW GOVERNMENT STATISTICS
FLASH UPDATE - September 12, 2009
Annual Broad Money Growth Slowed Sharply in August
Fed’s Beige Book Generally Indicated Severe Bottom Bouncing
Irregular Cash-for-Clunkers Impact in
Pending Economic and Inflation Numbers
And
Consumer Liquidity Special Report
September 14, 2009

China is fed up with trading their goods for Fed-enabled U.S. Treasury Paper. We don’t blame them.

Increasingly-aware-Americans are fed up with Fed policies which have diminished the purchasing power of their U.S. Dollar by over 96% in less than a century – a de facto confiscation of American Wealth. We don’t blame them either.

But China has started to act on its increasing dissatisfaction. We list several such Chinese actions in last week’s article "Profit Opportunity Knocks, But Beware The Market ‘Rally’ -- Will China Break The Cartel’s Grip on the Gold Price?" in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com.

One major consequence of China’s actions is that it creates Angst at The Fed. Thus The Fed is forced to do more and more overt and, doubtless, covert monetization – that is, purchase of U.S. Treasury debt.

But in conducting this increased monetization The private for-profit Fed (doubtless with cooperation from its Cartel* of key Central Bankers and favored financial institutions) appears to have cleverly used the Monetization as yet another tool to continue to manipulate the Markets, especially Equities, to their Fed-desired levels.

*We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2008 Letter containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “A Strategy for Profiting from the Cartel’s Dark Interventions & Evolving Techniques” and Deepcaster’s July, 2009 Letter entitled  "A Strategy For Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions & Evolving Techniques - II" in the “Latest Letter” Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.”

It is not too much of an oversimplification to say that throughout the Summer, 2009 the Fundamentals and, often, the Technicals, signaled that the Equities Markets should take a dive.

Yet The Cartel Intervenors have kept Equities headed up, riding on massive sugary injections of liquidity and Intervention. Indeed there is a remarkable correlation between rallying performance of the Equities Markets since March, 2009 and The overt implementation of the Fed’s monetization, which also began in earnest in mid-March, 2009. (The evidence indicates that Covert Monetization has been going on for years.)

Recall that “quantitative easing” just means Fed monetization of U.S. Treasury Debt – the private for-profit Fed prints (keystrokes) money out of thin air to buy U.S. debt thus keeping interest rates lower than they would otherwise be. But while very negative long-term financial and economic systemic consequences flow from this monetization, in the short-term the consequences can appear beneficial. Witness the Equities Markets Rally.

To be numerate about it, consider the Key correlation between the post mid-March, 2009 Equities Market Rally and Monetization. Since the beginning of the overt Quantitative Easing (March, 2009)  the value of Total Securities Held Outright on the Fed’s Balance Sheet (the public Balance Sheet, that is, -- even Congress has not been able to coax The Fed to reveal its private balance sheet) has increased by $917 billon – from $580 billion to about $1.5 Trillion as we write.

In the same period the S&P increased from 720ish to over 1050 as we write.

How has this monetization likely become reflected in the S&P?

The Fed’s Primary Dealers (read Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase et. al.) “rent” U.S. government securities and then collateralize them. They use the proceeds to make the Equities Markets indices rise (since Mid-March, 2009) in spite of Fundamentals and Technicals which, sans Interventions, would dictate otherwise.

Thus it appears the Fed is using Monetization as yet another Tool – in addition to TOMO’s, POMO’s, the TARP, and the TALF etc. (see Deepcaster July, 2009 letter in the ‘Latest Letter’ cache at www.deepcaster.com) – to manipulate the Markets.

Of course, this chicanery is lethally detrimental to the U.S. Dollar in the long run and to the financial system and economy as a whole. It is Moral Hazard in spades.

In particular, it is injurious to holders of the U.S. Dollar-denominated assets such as investors world-wide, and U.S. retirees. The purchasing power of their Dollars continues to diminish, as Rep. Ron Paul points out (above), but is somewhat masked by the gimmicking of Official Statistics. (see below)

On the other hand, those who are aware of the Cartel Manipulation “Game” can use the knowledge to their advantage in profiting and in protecting wealth – see below.

The ultimate recourse (and only long-term Solution) for investors and U.S. retirees is to Audit (and then “End”) The private for-profit Fed as Deepcaster, Rep. Ron Paul, legendary Investors Jim Rogers and, now, three-fourth of the U.S. House of Representatives advocate. The non-profit organization www.carryingcapacity.org is conducting a major initiative to achieve these goals.

And other powerful (and countervailing) Forces are now “wise” to The Cartel’s for-profit ($Trillions in magnitude -- see “Opportunities & Threats in Derivatives Shocker” (05/29/2009) in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ at www.deepcaster.com) “Game” and are most unhappy – as we indicated above.

But the Main Force is China -- China holds over $1 Trillion in U.S. Treasury and Agency Securities denominated in depreciating U.S. Dollars.

Indeed, as Deepcaster has documented throughout the Summer, The Cartel’s alternatives (for continued control of the Markets) are being increasingly limited by those other Forces, most recently and increasingly by China. (See last week’s article “Profit Opportunity Knocks, But Beware the Market 'Rally' -- Will China Break The Cartel’s Grip on the Gold Price?”)

In sum, consider the revealed Core Strategy of that Cartel “End Game”: Manipulate the Markets to achieve Cartel shareholder for-profit and Power Enhancement goals, but hide the Negative consequences from investors/citizens world-wide through use of gimmicked Official Statistics. (See “Opportunities & Threats in Derivatives Shocker” 05/29/2009 in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com.)

Consider (again, for regular readers) how the Official Numbers differ from underlying Realities, courtesy of shadowstats.com. Shadowstats calculates the numbers the old-fashioned way they were calculated before the era of “political statistics” began in earnest in the 1980’s and 1990’s.

Official Numbers        vs.       Real Numbers
                                            (per shadowstats.com)

Annual Consumer Price Inflation reported September 16, 2009
-1.5%                                   6% (annualized September Rate)

U.S. Unemployment reported September 4, 2009
9.5%                                    21.1%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported August 27, 2009
-3.9%                                   -5.9%

In sum, The Bottom Line is, The Cartel’s “End Game” can not go on forever, because Economic and Market Realities will ultimately manifest themselves, notwithstanding gimmicked statistics.

One key observation is in order at this point. As the chart above shows, one in five Americans workers is unemployed. A large wave of Alt A and Prime Mortgage resets is due to start in 2010. As the U.S. Treasury has recently admitted, they expect “millions” more foreclosures.

In an economy in which 70% of GDP is the middle class consumers/taxpayers and, often, mortgage holders, consider the consequences of that present (21.1% - see above) and prospective increased unemployment for the economy and Markets. The consequent foreclosures can not be hidden forever by gimmicked Statistics and manipulated Markets.

The Realities reflected in the foregoing Overview are likely to generate Major Moves in Key Sectors soon (See Deepcaster’s “October 2009 Letter” in the ‘Latest Letter’ cache at www.deepcaster.com for details).

Indeed, just over a year ago, by early September, 2008, Deepcaster had given repeated warnings of a Market Crash and had recommended our subscribers establish five short positions (all of which later proved to be profitable). Our forecasts were correct.

Today we repeat a similar Warning, but Forecast in our October, 2009 Letter that the likely scenario for the rest of 2009 and 2010 will play out somewhat differently.

Barrons recently dubbed the ongoing rally “the bull market in puzzlement” because the Fundamentals, and most Technicals are abysmally negative.

But Deepcaster and his readers are likely not puzzled at all.

The Cartel is still calling the tune in this Equities Bear Market Rally, catalyzing temporarily Bullish “Dance” with the tools described above. It is clear to us that they have continued the Spring and Summer Rally because they want to reduce the heat and scrutiny and consequent Angst they are feeling from the Congress (a majority of which has endorsed the Audit the Fed bill). But for how long?

Whatever the answer we now present some general guidelines for Protection and profit when coping with The Cartel Interventional Regime under the conditions described above.

A Strategy for Profit and Protection

Normally, (that is to say, in a Genuine Free Market situation) the go-to “Safe Haven” Assets in times of Financial Crisis would be the Precious Monetary Metals Gold and Silver, as well as other assets such as Strategic Commodities.

We say “normally” because nearly every time yet another Financial Market Crisis has come prominently into the public eye in recent years The Cartel* has successfully taken down the price of what would normally be The Safe Haven Assets - - the Precious Monetary Metals.  A prime example occurred during the much-publicized demise of Bear Stearns in March, 2008, which was accompanied by a vicious Takedown of Gold and Silver.  In a non-manipulated Market, given the fact that Bear Stearns reflected great and increasing weaknesses in the Financial System, Gold and Silver should have skyrocketed.  But instead they were dramatically taken down.

Yet, the late 2008 and early 2009 Crises appear to be different.  Gold launched from the mid $700s/oz. to around $900/oz. during September, 2008, fell back to the low $700s and then launched again toward $900 in December, 2008, has actually exceeded $900 several times in 2009 and has now, in September, 2009 closed above $1000/oz.

So the question now, in mid-September, 2009, is it different this time around?  Have Gold and Silver finally thrust off the shackles of Cartel Intervention? Or will The Cartel be able once again to cap and take down the prices of these Precious Monetary Metals and Strategic Commodities? Deepcaster has very recently addressed this question in a Forecast he issued for the likely fate of Gold, Silver, Crude Oil & the U.S. Dollar in his October, 2009 Letter in the ‘Latest Letter’ cache at www.deepcaster.com.

One thing is certain:  The Cartel will certainly attempt again to take down Gold, Silver and Crude Oil at the earliest opportunity because the Strategic Commodities and Precious Monetary Metals are Competitors as Stores and Measures of Value with the Central Bankers’ Treasury Securities and Fiat Currencies.

Yet there is a Strategy which accommodates Cartel Interventional attempts and at the same time provides excellent Profit Opportunities, whether the Cartel Interventional attempts are successful or not.

A major premise of The Strategy is that one can certainly remain a Hard Assets Partisan (as Deepcaster is) while at the same time insulating oneself somewhat from future Takedowns.  The following points provide an outline of The Strategy (particularly as applied to the Gold and Silver Markets) and are designed to help avoid Portfolio unpleasantness, or even possible financial ruin, in the future, as well as to profit along the way:

  1. Recognize that The Cartel is still Potent, as difficult as that may be psychologically for Deepcaster and other Hard Asset Partisans to acknowledge.  The Cartel is still the Biggest Player in many markets and, if the timing and market context are propitious, the Biggest Player makes Market Price.  In addition, The Cartel has the advantage of de facto controlling the structure and regulation of various marketplaces and that is a tremendous advantage; just as the Hunt Brothers years ago discovered much to their dismay and misfortune, when they tried to corner the Silver Market.
  2. Accumulate Hard Assets near the Interim Bottoms of Cartel- engineered  Takedowns.
  3. In order to know when one is likely near the bottom of a Cartel-generated takedown, it is essential to take account of the Interventionals as well as the Technicals and Fundamentals.  Paying attention to the Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster recommending five short equities positions as of early September (just before the Fall Crash) all of which we subsequent recommended be liquidated profitably.
  4. For example, regarding Gold & Silver, near such Interim Bottoms, accumulate a combination of the Physical Commodity (Deepcaster prefers “low premium to melt” bullion coins) and well-managed Juniors with large reserves.  (Deepcaster provides a list of such Junior Candidates in our December 20, 2007 Alert “A Strategy for Profiting from Cartel Intervention” available in the Alerts Cache at www.deepcaster.com.)  The “Physical” and “Juniors” are for holding for the long-term as a Core Position.
  5. Then, to the extent one wishes to speculate on the next “long” move, one should buy the major producers or long-term call options on them.  These latter positions are for ultimate liquidation at the next Interim Top and are not for holding for the long-term.
  6. However, there will be a time when The Cartel price capping is ineffective and Gold & Silver make record moves upward.  The benefit of this Strategy is that one will likely be long in one’s speculative positions when this happens.
  7. Near the next Interim Top, liquidate the long options and majors.  Again, in order to know when we are close to the next Interim Top, it is essential to monitor the Interventionals, as well as Fundamentals and Technicals.
  8. Near that Top, sell short or buy puts on Majors.  We re-emphasize the Majors as preferred vehicles for trading positions because such positions are more liquid and tend to be quite responsive to Cartel moves.
  9. Near the next Interim Bottom, cover your shorts and liquidate your puts and go long again to begin the process all over again.  We emphasize that it is essential to consider the Interventionals as well as the Fundamentals and Technicals in order to determine the approximate Interim Tops and Bottoms.
  10. Finally, Hard Assets Partisans have the opportunity to become involved in Political Action to diminish the power of The Cartel.  It is truly outrageous that the average unsuspecting citizen, and prospective retiree, can and does put his hard won assets in Tangible Assets and/or Retirement Accounts only to have those assets effectively de-valued by Cartel Takedowns U.S. Dollar Devaluation and other Cartel actions. This is extremely injurious to many average citizens in many countries who are saving for the rainy day or retirement and have their retirement and/or reserves effectively taken from them.  In order to help prevent this and similar outrages, we recommend taking three steps:
    1. Become involved in the movement to Audit and then abolish the private-for-profit U.S. Federal Reserve as Deepcaster, former Presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul, and legendary investor Jim Rogers, all have advocated. The ‘Audit The Fed’ Bill is H.R. 1207 (and has over 200 co-sponsors); and The Abolish The Fed Bill is H.R. 2755. www.carryingcapacity.org is a nonprofit organization which actively supports these bills.
    2. Join the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee, which works to eliminate the manipulation of the Gold and Silver markets (www.gata.org).  GATA is a nonprofit organization, which makes a great contribution by gathering evidence regarding the suppression of prices of Gold, Silver and other commodities.
    3. Work to defeat The Cartel ‘End Game.’  Deepcaster has laid out the evidence regarding the Ominous Cartel “End Game” in “Coping with Power Moves in the Cartel's 'End Game' “ (04/24/2009) in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com.  Clearly The Cartel is sacrificing the U.S. Dollar to prop up Favored International Financial Institutions and to maintain its power.  But this sacrifice cannot continue forever. See Deepcaster’s July 2008 Letter in the ‘Latest Letter’ Archives at www.deepcaster.com.
    If this aforementioned Strategy is employed effectively, it can result both in an increasing Core Position in Gold and Silver, and in considerable profit along the way.

Additional insights and details regarding this Strategy, which are essential to profiting from The Cartel’s Policies, are laid out in Deepcaster’s article of 3/06/09 entitled “Investor Advantage: Revisiting The Cartel’s ‘End Game’ ” in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ cache at www.deepcaster.com.

Protection and profit require Proactivity and attention to the Interventionals, Fundamentals and Technicals, not “Buy and Hold.” We reiterate, “Buying and Holding” for the long term rarely succeed anymore as current market conditions attest.

Indeed, the Key Point of the Strategy for Protection and Profit is careful attention not only to the Fundamentals and Technicals but also to the Interventionals.  These Overt and Covert Cartel-generated Interventions have the power to move markets as those who study the matter can attest.

Thus, the Key to Profit and Protection is a Strategy:  Successful Investors must become Long-Term Position Traders, with their trading choices informed by the Interventionals, as well as the Fundamentals and Technicals. Moreover engaging in the Actions suggested above can help prevent The Cartel’s obtaining Superpower status, and aid in achieving wealth protection and profits as well.

Best Regards,

By DEEPCASTER LLC

www.deepcaster.com
DEEPCASTER FORTRESS ASSETS LETTER
DEEPCASTER HIGH POTENTIAL SPECULATOR
Wealth Preservation         Wealth Enhancement

© 2009 Copyright DeepCaster LLC - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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