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Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Gold New Record Highs at Over $1,040/oz

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 Oct 06, 2009 - 11:09 AM GMT

By: GoldCore


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold has surpassed its all time record high ($1,033/oz) of some 18 months ago this morning and surged to a new record nominal high over $1,036/oz this morning. The reasons for gold’s new record historic high and likely continuing strength in the coming months are the same fundamentals factors that have been driving the gold market higher in recent months.

- Worries about the outlook for the US economy and the risk of a ‘double dip’ or second economic downturn
- Deepening concerns regarding unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus and the increased risk of higher inflation and possibly stagflation (in the medium and long term) and the resultant negative impact on the value of global currencies
- Increasing risks posed to the dollar’s status as global reserve currency - as illustrated by today’s reports of the leading industrial nations discussing using other currencies and gold instead of the dollar in oil transactions
- The supply demand fundamentals – with gold production having peaked in 2001 and fallen every year since despite gradually rising gold prices and with investment and central bank demand (particularly demand from the People’s Bank of China) outweighing the decline in jewellery demand and the significant increase in scrap supply from the jewellery market

The more immediate catalyst for gold’s record highs may have come from the dollar coming under more pressure today after the Independent of London's Robert Fisk broke a story stating that a group of Arab countries, Russia, France, Japan and China and others were in secret discussions to use a basket of currencies and gold to replace the dollar in order to trade oil. Although some officials have denied this report, the fact that it is mentioned at all raises the question as to how much longer the dollar will remain the global reserve currency. According to Chinese banking sources, the transitional currency in the move away from dollars, may well be gold. Gold surged overnight to $1,021/oz on the news of this increasing threat to the petrodollar and then surged to over $1,036/oz this morning.

Another likely more immediate catalyst was the move by the Australian central bank to increase interest rates. This likely further pressurised the dollar. There is an increasing realization that at some stage central banks will have to start withdrawing the unprecedented monetary stimulus of recent months and years. A rising interest rate environment from the unprecedented historic low rates we have now is bullish for gold as it was in the rising interest rate environment of the 1970’s. Then, gold did not peak until interest rates had been increased by Paul Volcker to double digits therefore slaying the beast of inflation that plagued the US and global economy in that decade.

Gold Less than Half Its Inflation Adjusted High in 1980

A close above the record high today should set us up for the anticipated rally to $1,200/oz. However, profit taking could see a correction and consolidation above the previous resistance at $1,020/oz.

Gold remains well below record highs in Euros and Sterling and is likely to rally to new record highs in these currencies in the coming weeks. Investors waiting for a pullback may be disappointed and it may be more prudent to start to dollar (euro/ pound) average into position by buying over a period of days and weeks. This market could get away from those attempting to time the market and buy in at short term lows.

Silver has also surged in value to over $17/oz on the news but remains well below its recent record high of nearly $21/oz and well below the record nominal high for silver of $48.70/oz, set nearly 30 years ago in January, 1980. Silver remains very undervalued vis-à-vis gold.

Gold looks far from a bubble (less than half its real price in 1980) but whether it is or not is irrelevant. It is important that all investors and savers have an allocation to gold as financial insurance.

Mark O'Byrne




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WINNERS MoneyMate and Investor Magazine Financial Analysts 2006

Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. Any person acting on the information contained in this document does so at their own risk. Recommendations in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Individual circumstances should be considered before a decision to invest is taken. Investors should note the following: Past experience is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments may fall or rise against investors' interests. Income levels from investments may fluctuate. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of, or income from, investments denominated in foreign currencies. GoldCore Limited, trading as GoldCore is a Multi-Agency Intermediary regulated by the Irish Financial Regulator.

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Philip Ridley
07 Oct 09, 08:42
Gold $1040

Chaps. Were you taken by suprise? I was expecting that you would have a load of pre-prepared articles for this event ready to be slightly amended and dropped on this key event. Will we have some commentary on the way?


"I swear upon the altar of God, eternal hostility to every form of tyranny over the mind of man." Thomas Jefferson

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