Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Climate Change Mass Extinction - Birds, Bees and Bugs: Going Going Gone - Richard_Mills
2.A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! - Peter_Degraaf
3.Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2 - F_F_Wiley
4.America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - Raymond_Matison
5.Gold Price Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
6.Two Key Events Will Unleash Gold - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - Richard_Mills
8.Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - Jeb_Handwerger
9.Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - Troy_Bombardia
10.G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
The Death of the US Real Estate Dream - 22nd Jul 18
China is Now Officially at War With the US and Japan - 22nd Jul 18
You Buy the Fear in Gold - 22nd Jul 18
Trumponomics Stock Market 2018 - The Manchurian President (1/2) - 21st Jul 18
The Death of Japan's Real Estate Dream - 21st Jul 18
SMIGGLE Amazing Mega Shopping Haul, Pencil Cases, Smigglets and Giant Back Packs! - 21st Jul 18
Cayton Bay Beach Caravan Park Holiday - What's it Like? - 21st Jul 18
Gold Stocks Investment Wanes - 20th Jul 18
Diversifying Your Stock Investing Strategies is Smart Investing - 20th Jul 18
Custom Global Stock Market Indexes May Be Sounding Alarms - 20th Jul 18
S&P 500 Just 2% Below Record High, But There's More Stock Market Uncertainty - 19th Jul 18
Stock Market Technical Picture - 19th Jul 18
Gold Market Signal vs. Noise - 19th Jul 18
Don’t Get Too Bullish on Gold - 19th Jul 18
Bitcoin Price Rallies to Upper Channel – What Next? - 19th Jul 18
Trump Manchurian President Embarrasses Putin By Farcically Blowing his Russian Agent Cover - 19th Jul 18
The Fonzie–Ponzi Theory of Government Debt: An Update - 19th Jul 18
Will the Fed’s Interest Rate Tightening Trigger Another Financial Crisis? - 18th Jul 18
Stock Market Investor “Buy the Dip” Mentality is Still Strong, Which is Bullish for Stocks - 18th Jul 18
Stock Market Longer-Term Charts Show Incredible Potential - 18th Jul 18
A Better Yield Curve for Predicting the Stock Market is Bullish - 18th Jul 18
U.S. Stock Market Cycles Update - 18th Jul 18
Cayton Bay Hoseasons Caravan Park Holiday Summer 2018 Review - 18th Jul 18
What Did Crude Oil - Platinum Link Tell Us Last Week? - 17th Jul 18
Gold And The Elusive Chase For Profits - 17th Jul 18
Crude Oil May Not Find Support Above $60 This Time - 17th Jul 18
How Crazy It Is to Short Gold with RSI Close to 30 - 16th Jul 18
Markets Pay Attention Moment - China’s Bubble Economy Ripe for Bursting - 16th Jul 18
Stock Market Uptrend Continues, But... - 16th Jul 18
Emerging Markets Could Be Starting A Relief Rally - 16th Jul 18
(Only) a Near-term Stock Market Top? - 16th Jul 18
Trump Fee-Fi-Foe-Fum Declares European Union America's Enemy! - 16th Jul 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Black Swan Insights, Confusing Design And Discovery

InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade Oct 24, 2009 - 03:11 AM GMT

By: Charles_Maley

InvestorEducation

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen it comes to the things that count, we humans don’t like to admit that we live in a world we know very little about. We also have a tendency to place a premium on the little that we know, and discount the larger amount that we don’t know.


It’s no wonder why we are not good at designing things. The design mindset is grounded in what we “know.” We seem to be much better at discovering things. The discovery process is fueled by what we “don’t know,” so we “tinker” and discover.

I note in the “Why Are We Such Suckers For Prediction?” post, if you are an auto mechanic, you most likely know more about fixing cars than you don’t know about fixing cars. Also, errors are easily rectified. In this light, a good mechanic is an expert. If you are a psychologist or an economist, I don’t think so. In fact, it’s practically impossible that your knowledge of the human condition would exceed your lack of knowledge of the human condition. Not to mention that mistakes can be catastrophic in these “big system” type professions. Plumbers don’t kill people, but doctors do. Mistakes when predicting the weather, the economy, or the financial markets can, and do, ruin our lives.

It seems the big things we know the least about are the very things that count the most.  

Here is a great video of Nassim Taleb and Charlie Rose discussing these issues and the random rare events that have huge consequence:


Enjoy this article? Like to receive more like it each day? Simply click here and enter your email address in the box below to join them. 

Email addresses are only used for mailing articles, and you may unsubscribe any time by clicking the link provided in the footer of each email.

Charles Maley
www.viewpointsofacommoditytrader.com
Charles has been in the financial arena since 1980. Charles is a Partner of Angus Jackson Partners, Inc. where he is currently building a track record trading the concepts that has taken thirty years to learn. He uses multiple trading systems to trade over 65 markets with multiple risk management strategies. More importantly he manages the programs in the “Real World”, adjusting for the surprises of inevitable change and random events. Charles keeps a Blog on the concepts, observations, and intuitions that can help all traders become better traders.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules