Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21
UK Covid-19 Booster Jabs Moderna, Pfizer Are They Worth the Risk of Side effects, Illness? - 22nd Nov 21
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends - 20th Nov 21
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now - 20th Nov 21
How to Determine if It’s Time for You to Outsource Your Packaging Requirements to a Contract Packer - 20th Nov 21
2 easy ways to play Facebook’s Metaverse Spending Spree - 20th Nov 21
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! - 19th Nov 21
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals - 19th Nov 21
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation - 19th Nov 21
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? - 19th Nov 21
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? - 19th Nov 21
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) - 19th Nov 21
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak - 18th Nov 21
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! - 18th Nov 21
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation - 18th Nov 21
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? - 18th Nov 21
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver - 18th Nov 21
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend - 18th Nov 21
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs - 18th Nov 21
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is - 18th Nov 21
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse - 18th Nov 21
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! - 18th Nov 21
Silver vs US Dollar - 17th Nov 21
Silver Supply and Demand Balance - 17th Nov 21
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense - 17th Nov 21
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation - 17th Nov 21
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise - 17th Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 16th Nov 21
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting - 16th Nov 21
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! - 16th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Yuan Currency Swap

Currencies / China Currency Yuan Oct 30, 2009 - 01:05 PM GMT

By: Mike_Hewitt

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn March 23, 2009, China made public announcements to overhaul the global monetary system, thereby questioning the role of the US dollar as the reserve currency.1 Chinese officials have gone on record saying they want to move the global currency peg away from the dollar in favour of currency diversification as indicated by China's push for OPEC to price oil in a basket of currencies (including the yuan) instead of dollars.


The use of the Chinese yuan in China's neighbouring countries for transactions has been growing in recent years. Today the yuan is informally freely convertible in almost all countries bordering China.

The push for the regionalization of yuan appears to be gathering steam ahead of the scheduled launch of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) on January 1, 2010. Under the terms of CAFTA, there will be zero-tariff for 90 percent of the products traded between China and ASEAN countries and "substantial opening" in the service trade market.

At nearly US$2.3 trillion, China holds the largest official foreign exchange reserves of any country and surpassed Japan as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt in November 2008. Understandably, such a large exposure leaves China subject to currency fluctuations. China has been shifting their U.S. holdings to shorter term Treasuries and analysts believe China has been continuing a trend of diversifying into non-US dollar assets.

The economic model of export-led growth, of which China has been engaging, is essentially the practice of vendor financing to the United States. The concern is not that the United States will be unable to pay back the debt, for as long as this debt is denominated in US dollars, the United States will always be able to pay off the debt (since they can legally print as many dollars as required). The concern is what the purchasing power of these dollars will be when the debt is eventually repaid.

The cost of printing a $100 dollar with Benjamin Franklin's portrait is the same as that required for a $1 dollar bill with a profile of George Washington. The value for this extra paper note is derived by reducing the purchasing power of all US money in circulation and held in reserve. For single bills, the effect of devaluation is trivial; however, when large increases to the US money supply occur, the effect upon purchasing power becomes a disconcerting issue for holders of large amounts of US denominated assets such as US government bonds and treasury bills.

The widely accepted US dollar is usually used to settle trade accounts. Since July, China has allowed Hong Kong and five mainland cities to settle cross-border trade in yuan. Additionally, since December 2008, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has signed six different official bilateral currency swap agreements worth 650 billion yuan in total.

Currency Swap Agreement Partner Date Amount
(Billion Yuan)
Bank of Korea Dec 12, 2008 180
Hong Kong Monetary Authority Jan 20, 2009 200
Central Bank of Malaysia Feb 8, 2009 80
National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Feb 11, 2009 20
Bank of Indonesia Mar 23, 2009 100
Central Bank of Argentina Mar 29, 2009 70
Total 650

Currency swap agreements are two-way loans between central banks. A central bank, through the exchange, injects the partner country's currency into its own financial system, allowing domestic businesses to borrow the other country's currency and use it to pay for imports of that country's goods.

This allows for bilateral trade to occur between the two countries without a requirement to convert everything into US dollars as firms importing goods from China can then pay for them with yuan borrowed from domestic banks. As the yuan is not a fully convertible currency it would be primarily used for this purpose.2

Other countries working towards directly exchanging their own currencies in trade transactions with China rather than using the US dollar as an intermediary include Russia, Brazil and Thailand. Recently, China has moved past the US as Brazil's top trading partner.

While the Chinese yuan does not currently have the liquidity to replace the US dollar as the global currency of choice for resolving international trade settlements, it must be acknowledged that China has made great strides in making that scenario more plausible than it was even a year ago.

Notes

1 "The acceptance of credit-based national currencies as major international reserve currencies, as is the case in the current system, is a rare special case in history ... The crisis again calls for creative reform of the existing international monetary system towards an international reserve currency with a stable value, rule-based issuance and manageable supply, so as to achieve the objective of safeguarding global economic and financial stability." (Essay titled "Reform the International Monetary System" by Dr Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People's Bank of China dated March 23, 2009)

2 In some cases, such as the case for the Philippines, Mongolia and Belarus, yuan is being held as a reserve currency, albeit on a small-scale.

By Mike Hewitt
http://www.dollardaze.org

Mike Hewitt is the editor of www.DollarDaze.org , a website pertaining to commentary on the instability of the global fiat monetary system and investment strategies on mining companies.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are not intended to be taken as investment advice. It is to be taken as opinion only and I encourage you to complete your own due diligence when making an investment decision.

Mike Hewitt Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in