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EUR/USD Bulls’ Unease After Key Reversal Week

Currencies / Forex Trading Nov 06, 2009 - 08:50 AM GMT

By: Seven_Days_Ahead

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBulls are on the alert after a recent potential reversal signal on the Weekly chart. But so far not enough has been done on the downside to fully persuade the bears, and the jury is still out, deliberating.


The FX Trader’s view


 WEEKLY CHART:

Recently there was a type of Key Reversal Week which, admittedly, could have been a clearer one as there was not the clear ‘higher high’ prior to the ‘lower close’.

However, we ignore this clue at our peril – it might prove to be a timely marker of a turn in trend.

Ideally this would have been seen after a more accurate test of the 76.4% recovery level, but this is not essential.

 

DAILY CHART:

In the FX Specialist Guide we have been looking at bull channel base projections – the s/term one has not been breached on a closing basis yet, which would be the first bear confirmation.

Currently, believers in the Key Reversal indication may try for speculative sales around 1.4950, just ahead of a s/term 76.4% bounce level (61.8% has already been reached, and sometimes this can be a good level in EUR/USD – we are looking at a lower risk entry, but with the chance it won’t be seen). The 1.5061 high offers a nearby risk level for stop purposes.

Note lower key support is offered by the prior 1.4446/04 prior highs area, which also incorporates the main 23.6% pullback level and the next bull channel base projection – closing below this would provide a further clear bear sign.

Mark Sturdy
Philip Allwright

Seven Days Ahead
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Mark Sturdy, John Lewis & Philip Allwright, write exclusively for Seven Days Ahead a regulated financial advisor selling professional-level technical and macro analysis and high-performing trade recommendations with detailed risk control for banks, hedge funds, and expert private investors around the world. Check out our subscriptions.

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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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