Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21
UK Covid-19 Booster Jabs Moderna, Pfizer Are They Worth the Risk of Side effects, Illness? - 22nd Nov 21
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends - 20th Nov 21
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now - 20th Nov 21
How to Determine if It’s Time for You to Outsource Your Packaging Requirements to a Contract Packer - 20th Nov 21
2 easy ways to play Facebook’s Metaverse Spending Spree - 20th Nov 21
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! - 19th Nov 21
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals - 19th Nov 21
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation - 19th Nov 21
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? - 19th Nov 21
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? - 19th Nov 21
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) - 19th Nov 21
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak - 18th Nov 21
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! - 18th Nov 21
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation - 18th Nov 21
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? - 18th Nov 21
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver - 18th Nov 21
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend - 18th Nov 21
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs - 18th Nov 21
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is - 18th Nov 21
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse - 18th Nov 21
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! - 18th Nov 21
Silver vs US Dollar - 17th Nov 21
Silver Supply and Demand Balance - 17th Nov 21
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense - 17th Nov 21
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation - 17th Nov 21
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise - 17th Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 16th Nov 21
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting - 16th Nov 21
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! - 16th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Contrarians Will Get Killed

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 Nov 20, 2009 - 09:40 AM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the last ten years, the financial world has experienced quite a few bubbles. Ten years ago there was the tech bubble. Then the housing bubble. And then the credit bubble. There was an Oil bubble too. With all these bubbles popping up, so to has an increase in bubble calling and contrarian thinking. As a result, sentiment analysis has become more popular.


One has to look at three things: fundamentals, technicals and sentiment. For contrary thinking (in terms of sentiment) to be most powerful, either technicals or fundamentals need to agree. As an example, I anticipate a reversal when sentiment is overly bullish and that market is running into technical resistance. Just because sentiment is bullish, doesn’t mean a reversal is coming.

The reality however and this is very important to understand, is that sentiment follows the trend most of the time. A secular bull market evolves as more and more people become bullish and invest in that market. Over time, sentiment is going to be more bullish because there are more participants in that trend. That is what causes higher prices. It is the very nature of a major bull market for sentiment to be bullish.

First, let me debunk the bubble callers and those who say Gold is a crowded trade. I’ve heard at least three different people say this. Google that and you’ll be amazed at the number of results. Here are some excellent charts. 

The first chart I saw in an editorial from Puru Saxena, here: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saxena/saxena111309.html

The second chart is c/o of Casey Research, which I saw in an editorial by Chris Puplava here: http://financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2009/1118.html

Does it look like the Gold market is anywhere remotely close to a bubble? Apparently, the bubble callers and crowded trade folks haven’t done their research. Doesn’t look crowded to me.

Even if a few more people own gold, my bet is that they don’t own enough of it. Gold is under-owned. John Paulson, the great hedge fund manager is pretty bullish on Gold, but he doesn’t own much more than 10% in his fund. (Perhaps that is why he’s starting a Gold fund). Dennis Gartman, I believe only owns around 5% (He’s said so on television). Months ago, Steve Leuthold was on Bloomberg and he was bullish on Gold but said he only owned 1-2%. A time ago, most folks would have 10% of their worth in Gold, whether it was in a bull market or not. Most people who own gold investments, don’t own enough.      

Moving along, it is important to understand the technical ramifications of Gold’s move past $1000/oz. A market that breaks free from a multi-decade base is a market that shoots much much higher. There are numerous examples of this but we’ll discuss only two. 

Oil had traded between $10 and $40 for nearly 25 years. It broke past $40 and we all know what happened in 2008. In just a few short years the market rose nearly 300% following the breakout. 

Then there is the Dow Jones breakout in 1983. The market consolidated underneath 1000 from 1966-1982. It brokeout in 1983, retested the breakout and then ran to 2700. The markets 3-year run from mid 1984 to mid 1987 was probably the strongest three year run it had dating back to 1933. The market advanced 170% in four years. 

Gold has followed a similar pattern, if you use $700-$730, the monthly resistance. Gold broke past that in 2007 and then retested it in 2008. The breakout past the 2008 high confirms that Gold is in new territory. Judging from history (and there are many examples), Gold is at the start of a major move higher. Our target for this move is $2,100-$2,300 in the next 12 months.

It is interesting how these major breakouts occur at a time when fundamentals are their strongest. How can anyone call Gold a bubble when gold production continues to decrease? How can anyone call Gold a bubble when monetization is rampant? How can anyone call Gold a bubble when the FHA and FDIC will need to be bailed out? How can anyone call Gold a bubble when the US deficit is in the trillions of dollars? The deflationary forces plaguing us are bullish for Gold. That is what the market is saying and that is how traders and investors are reacting.

There is a reason the recognition phase in a bull market comes after that major breakout. Humans are reactive and when it comes to the markets, they follow the herd. It is only after price breaks out do the fundamentals become so obvious. The views of the bubble callers and wanna be contrarians are baseless, misguided and ironically, coming at the worst possible time.

Good Luck and Good Trading!

For more information on our Gold/Silver stock newsletter and examples of accurate real time sentiment analysis, please visit: http://www.trendsman.com/Newsletter/GSletter.htm

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
http://www.trendsman.com
http://www.thedailygold.com
trendsmanresearch@gmail.com

Trendsman” is an affiliate member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and is enrolled in their CMT Program, which certifies professionals in the field of technical analysis. He will be taking the final exam in Spring 07. Trendsman focuses on technical analysis but analyzes fundamentals and investor psychology in tandem with the charts. He credits his success to an immense love of the markets and an insatiable thirst for knowledge and profits.

Jordan Roy-Byrne Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in