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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

U.S. Dollar Trading Fibonacci Projections

Currencies / Forex Trading Nov 26, 2009 - 03:46 AM GMT

By: ForexPros


The Swiss KOF Economic Research Agency will publish its "Leading Indicators Index" Tomorrow (Nov 27), which determines the overall economic health of the country's economy.

The Index is comprised of 12 indicators related to consumer confidence, banking confidence, production, new orders and housing- and sheds light on the economic trend and the movement of GDP growth in Switzerland.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.

Analysts predict Tomorrow's Index to stand at 1.85, rapidly climbing since last May's slump of -1.86.

Euro Dollar:
The Euro broke the resistance 1.5018, and reached both suggested targets 1.5082 & 1.5144 successfully and with an unbelievable accuracy (yesterday’s high in some companies was 1.5143 and in others 1.5144). It looks like reaching 1.5144 will provide a chance to correct the last up-move from 1.4887. such a correction will typically target the area 1.5015-1.4985. the importance of the lower limit of this area is that it combines the rising trendline on the hourly chart, with short-term Fibonacci 61.8%, which makes it a very important support for setting the direction for what is left of the week.

But, before considering this scenario the favorite one, we should see a break of 1.5077, then a visit to 1.5015-1.4985 will be highly anticipated. And if 1.4985 is taken, the Euro will fall under considerable pressure, that will initially lead to 1.4919, on the way to lower targets. Short-term resistance is 1.5138 and only breaking it would improve the technical outlook, and target 1.5200 & 1.5260.

• 1.5077: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro-term.
• 1.4985-1.5015: a support area combining Fibonacci 50% & 61.8% for the short-term, with the rising trendline from 1.4800 on the hourly chart.
• 1.4919: previous important intraday support.

• 1.5138: previous resistance from 2008.
• 1.5200: previous resistance from 2008.
• 1.5260: previous resistance from 2008.

As expected, and in harmony with the trend, Dollar-Yen broke the support 88.13 , and successfully reached the two suggested targets 87.10 & 86.40. This move has brought us prices that have not been seen for 15 years. It is only expected (and logical), that reaching 86.40 would provide us with a correction for the down leg that started at 89.17, and reached here without any significant correction. Such a correction will typically target the area 87.73-88.07 where there is Fibonacci 50% & 61.8% resistance levels (for the short-term). But before jumping on board we should see a break of the resistance 87.01.

On the other hand, the support 86.40 will be support of the day, and breaking it would mean a continuation of the downtrend that showed a lot of strength yesterday, and a continuation of the drop towards new levels that have not been seen for a decade and a half, at 85.90, and may be later the calculated target for the broken wedge formation at 85.33.

• 86.40: support area from 1995.
• 85.90: support area from 1995.
• 85.33: the calculated target for the broken wedge formation.

• 87.01: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro-term.
• 87.73: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
• 88.33: the bottom of the broken wedge formation.

Analysis by: - Written by Alyssa Levy

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27 Nov 09, 04:23

There is a possibility that this bear may hold-reason is the AUD has already broken the critical resistance of 0.9024 for the month ending on the 22/12/09 with a correction target at 0.8329-however if the current valuation of gold remains as it is, the AUD will at worst touch 0.8901 running up to Xmas.


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