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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

U.S. Dollar Weaker Whilst Japanese Yen Gains Strength on Trendline Break

Currencies / Forex Trading Dec 09, 2009 - 03:08 AM GMT

By: ForexPros


Fundamental Analysis: Trade Balance Index

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Trade Balance index report Tomorrow (Dec 10), which measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports).
This is the largest component of the US's balance of payments.

Export data gives a reflection on the US growth. Imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect on the USD.
Analysts expect tomorrow's Index to remain stable since last month, indicating a deficit of 36.50 Billions Dollars.

Euro Dollar

The Euro slightly surpassed the resistance 1.4844 before completely surrendering to the downtrend. It dropped and successfully reached the first target 1.4724, and came somehow close to the second target 1.4649 (the low until this very moment is 1.4667). In spite of this big drop, we still have not made it yet to Fibonacci 38.2% for the long term (for the rise from 1.3747) at 1.4610.

Short-term support is at 1.4649, and breaking it would mean we will be targeting the above mentioned Fibonacci level first at 1.4610, and then the support area 1.4510/1.4518 that includes several daily bottoms. Short-term resistance is at the Asian session high 1.4734, breaking it would mean that the Euro will have a chance to catch a breath after this big drop. Breaking this resistance will target at least 1.4847, and may be 1.4903 as well.

• 1.4649: Oct 7th low.
• 1.4610: Fibonacci 38.2% for the long-term (for the rise from 1.374).
• 1.4510: previous support area that includes several daily lows.

• 1.4734: Asian session high.
• 1.4847: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.5139
• 1.4903: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.5139


Dollar-Yen broke the rising trendline from 85.07 at 88.75 and successfully reached the first target 88.33. Breaking this line indicates there is a continuation of the downside pressures, that emerged after Friday’s top, and if it continues, we will break today’s support which is yesterday’s low 88.16, and would target Fibonacci 50% at 87.78 first, and may be the most important support for the time being : Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole up-move from 84.81 at 87.08.

But as we can see from the attached chart, the drop stopped at the moving average SMA100, which could provide a chance for a bounce back up, in what could be (at least) a correction for the drop from Friday’s top. In this case the price will break intraday resistance at 88.48, and would ideally target the area that is bordered by Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term at 89.15 & Fibonacci 61.8% at 89.76.

• 88.16: yesterday’s low.
• 87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
• 87.08: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.

• 88.48: intraday resistance.
• 89.15: Fibonacci 38.2% for short-term.
• 89.76: Fibonacci 38.2% for short-term.

Analysis by: - Written by Munther Marji for Forexpros

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