Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Will You Make Money in the New Silver Bull Market ? - 13th Aug 20
Hyper-Deflation Capital Destruction And Gold & Silver - 13th Aug 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching - 13th Aug 20
Silver Took the Stairs to $21 in 2008, Took Escalator to $29 2010. Is Silver on Elevator to 120th floor today? - 13th Aug 20
President Trump Signs Additional COVID Relief – What To Expect from the Markets - 13th Aug 20
Has Gold's Upward Drive Come to an End? - 13th Aug 20
YouTuber Ads Revenue & How to Start a Career on YouTube - 13th Aug 20
Silver Notches Best Month Since 1979 - 12th Aug 20
Silver Shorts Get Squeezed Hard… What’s Next? - 12th Aug 20
A Tale of Two Precious Metal Bulls - 12th Aug 20
Stock Market Melt-Up Continues While Precious Metals Warn of Risks - 12th Aug 20
How Does the Gold Fit the Corona World? - 12th Aug 20
3 (free) ways to ride next big wave in EURUSD, USDJPY, gold, silver and more - 12th Aug 20
A Simple Way to Preserve Your Wealth Amid Uncertainty - 11th Aug 20
Precious Metals Complex Impulse Move : Where Is next Resistance? - 11th Aug 20
Gold Miners Junior Stcks Buying Spree - 11th Aug 20
Has the Fed Let the Inflation Genie Out of the Bottle? - 10th Aug 20
The Strange Food Trend That’s Making Investors Rich - 10th Aug 20
Supply & Demand For Money – The End of Inflation? - 10th Aug 20
Revisiting Our Silver and Gold Predictions – Get Ready For Higher Prices - 10th Aug 20
Storm Clouds Are Gathering for a Major Stock and Commodity Markets Downturn - 10th Aug 20
A 90-Year-Old Stock Market Investment Insight That's Relevant in 2020 - 10th Aug 20
Debt and Dollar Collapse Leading to Potential Stock Market Melt-Up, - 10th Aug 20
Coronavirus: UK Parents Demand ALL Schools OPEN September, 7 Million Children Abandoned by Teachers - 9th Aug 20
Computer GPU Fans Not Spinning Quick FIX - Sticky Fans Solution - 9th Aug 20
Find the Best Speech Converter for You - 9th Aug 20
Silver Bull Market Update - 7th Aug 20
This Inflation-Adjusted Silver Chart Tells An Interesting Story - 7th Aug 20
The Great American Housing Boom Has Begun - 7th Aug 20
NATURAL GAS BEGINS UPSIDE BREAKOUT MOVE - 7th Aug 20
Know About Lotteries With The Best Odds Of Winning - 7th Aug 20
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
ARE YOU LOVING YOUR SERVITUDE? - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More - 30th Jul 20
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks - 30th Jul 20
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally - 30th Jul 20
How to Finance an Investment Property - 30th Jul 20
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs - 29th Jul 20
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction - 29th Jul 20
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust - 29th Jul 20
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) - 29th Jul 20
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? - 29th Jul 20
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge - 29th Jul 20
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle - 28th Jul 20
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold - 28th Jul 20
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway - 28th Jul 20
Why College Is Never Coming Back - 27th Jul 20
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds - 27th Jul 20
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt - 27th Jul 20
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? - 27th Jul 20
Google, Apple And Amazon Are Leading A $30 Trillion Assault On Wall Street - 27th Jul 20
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" - 26th Jul 20
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price - 26th Jul 20
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs - 26th Jul 20
How High Will Silver Go? - 25th Jul 20
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below - 25th Jul 20
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending - 25th Jul 20
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International - 25th Jul 20
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation - 25th Jul 20
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand - 24th Jul 20
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs - 24th Jul 20
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High - 24th Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Goodbye to Stock Market Santa Rally?

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009 Dec 19, 2009 - 06:09 AM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNew jobless claims unexpectedly rise. - The number of newly laid off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week as the recovery of the nation's battered labor market proceeds in fits and starts.

The Labor Department said Thursday that the number of new jobless claims rose to 480,000 last week, up 7,000 from the previous week. That was a worse performance than the decline to 465,000 that economists had expected.


Another $290 billion added to the debt ceiling will only last six weeks.

The House on Wednesday passed legislation giving the federal government the ability to borrow a whopping $290 billion to finance its operations for just six additional weeks. The 218-214 vote sends the must-pass bill to the Senate, which is expected to approve it as its last act before adjourning for the year. The alternative would be a market-rattling, first-ever default on U.S. obligations.  The measure is needed as a result of the out-of-control budget deficit, which registered $1.4 trillion for the budget year that ended in September. The current debt ceiling is $12.1 trillion and is set to be reached by Dec. 31.  The debt ceiling may have already been reached, but no one is saying.  Can’t we just say, “No mas?”

A Debtor’s Dilemma.
Should I stay or should I go? That is the question more Americans are asking as the housing market continues to drag.  In good times, it would have been unthinkable to stop paying the mortgage.   Today, it is an option that many are considering.

Good-bye Santa Rally?
-- Job losses have been unusually steep in this latest recession with some 7.3 million jobs lost since December 2007, according to NABE. There is little evidence suggesting that employees will start hiring on a mass scale anytime soon.

The severity and the speed of the downturn have made businesses exceedingly cautious about the recovery.  This is contributing to a substantial disconnect between their more cautious forecasts, and more confident recovery talk from government officials as well as many in the investment community.  The market may not be in a Christmas spirit.

 


Treasury bonds may rally for a while.
-- Treasuries headed for a weekly gain, trimming this year’s loss… on concern the global economic recovery will slow.

Benchmark 10-year yields were little changed today, near the lowest level in a week, after Federal Reserve officials said on Dec. 16 that the U.S. economy isn’t improving enough for them to raise interest rates from a record low. The U.S. is still in a recession and home prices may resume declines, Harvard University economics professor Martin Feldstein said.

 

Gold bounces at its trendline.
-- Gold gained in London, paring a third weekly decline, as a halt in the dollar’s rally prompted investors to buy bullion after the metal’s biggest drop in almost two weeks.

Gold has dropped 9.8 percent since climbing to a record $1,226.40 an ounce on Dec. 3. A break of the trendline (1100.00) could mean a further decline in the near-term.  Caution is warranted.

 

 

 

The Japanese market isn’t out of the woods yet.
-- Japanese stocks fell, led by banks and electronics manufacturers after international regulators said banks must boost their capital by 2012 and U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly climbed. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 0.2 percent to 10,142.05 at the close in Tokyo after falling as much as 1.3 percent. The Nikkei 225 rose 0.3 percent this week.

Investors are uncertain about the economy remains and people are withdrawing money from risk assets. 

 

 

The Shanghai index slumps.
-- Chinese stocks fell for a fourth day, the longest losing streak since August, on concern the government will step up measures to curb property speculation and new share sales will divert funds from existing equities.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 65.19, or 2.1 percent, to 3,113.89 at the close, the lowest since Nov. 27. It dropped 4.1 percent this week, a second weekly loss.

 

 

The dollar makes a strong advance.
The dollar was poised for the biggest weekly gain versus the euro since January after breaching $1.43 for the first time in three months, forcing traders to abandoned bearish bets on the greenback.

Deterioration in the labor market is “abating,” and household spending is increasing, the Fed said in its statement on Dec. 16. Policy makers held the target rate for overnight lending between banks at zero to 0.25 percent.

 “There’s a growing consensus that the dollar will do well as we go into the New Year,” said Ronald Leven, a New York- based currency strategist at Morgan Stanley. “We’re seeing ongoing interest to build up long-dollar positions.” A long is a bet a currency will advance.

A word on Strategic Defaults.
 
-- Morgan Stanley, the securities firm that spent more than $8 billion on commercial property in 2007, plans to relinquish five San Francisco office buildings to its lender two years after purchasing them from Blackstone Group LP near the top of the market. The bank has been negotiating an “orderly transfer” of the towers since earlier this year, Alyson Barnes, a Morgan Stanley spokeswoman said.  “This isn’t a default or foreclosure situation,” Barnes said. “We are going to give them the properties to get out of the loan obligation.”   In a pig’s eye!  See what Karl Denninger wrote about this topic.

 

 


Gasoline prices almost $1.00 higher than a year ago.
 The Energy Information Agency weekly report suggests, “Dropping three and one half cents to $2.60 per gallon, the U.S. average price for regular gasoline was $0.94 higher than the price a year ago. Prices declined in all regions of the country. The price on the East Coast decreased almost three cents to $2.62 per gallon. The largest decrease in price occurred in the Midwest where the average fell to $2.52 per gallon, a drop of a nickel.”

 

 

 

NatGas prices are spiking again.
The Energy Information Agency’s Natural Gas Weekly Update reports, “With cold temperatures gripping much of the country for the first half of December, the heating season is well underway with large storage withdrawals and higher prices during peak demand periods. Following an increase of $0.30 per MMBtu during the report week, the price at the Henry Hub is trading near its highest level of 2009. The average Henry Hub price on Wednesday, December 16, was $5.57 per MMBtu, the highest price at this market location since January 13, 2009.”

 


A European house of cards ready to collapse?
As one so vividly remembers, probably the key catalyst that set off the chain of events last fall following the collapse of Lehman were the closed loop (and much delayed) downgrades of AIG, which in a span of hours went from AAA to much lower, thus springing various collateral requirements which the company could not satisfy, and in turn forcing even more downgrades, until ultimately it became clear that the firm (like most others on Wall Street) is merely a lot of hot air and unjustified valuations. Ironically, the rating agencies, and more specifically Moody's, could once again be the catalyst for the much anticipated collapse of the European house of cards, which as all now know, has Greece as its weakest link.

On December 18, 1930…
Market wrap: Stock liquidation broadens, with bad breaks throughout the list. “Brave attempt” at early rally wiped out by fresh flood of liquidation in late morning. Bond market generally weak; US govts. firm and highest grade corp. issues steadier. Commodities mixed; Farm Board hard pressed to maintain wheat support.  No news seen to account for the decline, which was “generally attributed to the desire of additional holders to get out of the market entirely at least for the time being.”

Traders alert:  The Practical Investor is currently offering four months of the daily Inner Circle Newsletter for the price of three to new subscribers.  Contact us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com for a free sample newsletter and subscription information.

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski,
President and CIO
http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules