Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Online Elliott Wave Markets Trading Course Worth $129 for FREE! - 22nd Sep 20
Gold Price Overboughtness Risk - 22nd Sep 20
Central Banking Cartel Promises ZIRP Until at Least 2023 - 22nd Sep 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching Initial Objective - 22nd Sep 20
Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded - 21st Sep 20
Fed Will Not Hike Rates For Years. Gold Should Like It - 21st Sep 20
US Financial Market Forecasts and Elliott Wave Analysis Resources - 21st Sep 20
How to Avoid Currency Exchange Risk during COVID - 21st Sep 20
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend - 20th Sep 20
Do This Instead Of Trying To Find The “Next Amazon” - 20th Sep 20
5 Significant Benefits of the MT4 Trading Platform for Forex Traders - 20th Sep 20
A Warning of Economic Collapse - 20th Sep 20
The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think - 19th Sep 20
A Virus So Deadly, The Government Has to Test You to See If You Have It - 19th Sep 20
Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? - 19th Sep 20
RTX 3080 Mania, Ebay Scalpers Crazy Prices £62,000 Trollers Insane Bids for a £649 GPU! - 19th Sep 20
A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century - 19th Sep 20
The United Floor in Stocks - 19th Sep 20
Mobile Gaming Market Trends And The Expected Future Developments - 19th Sep 20
The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing - 18th Sep 20
It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 - 18th Sep 20
Forget AMD RDNA2 and Buy Nvidia RTX 3080 FE GPU's NOW Before Price - 18th Sep 20
Best Back to School / University Black Face Masks Quick and Easy from Amazon - 18th Sep 20
3 Types of Loans to Buy an Existing Business - 18th Sep 20
How to tell Budgie Gender, Male or Female Sex for Young and Mature Parakeets - 18th Sep 20
Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead - 17th Sep 20
Peak Financialism And Post-Capitalist Economics - 17th Sep 20
Challenges of Working from Home - 17th Sep 20
Sheffield Heading for Coronavirus Lockdown as Covid Deaths Pass 432 - 17th Sep 20
What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? - 16th Sep 20
President Trump and Crimes Against Humanity - 16th Sep 20
Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals - 16th Sep 20
Why the Knives Are Out for Trump’s Fed Critic Judy Shelton - 16th Sep 20
Operation Moonshot: Get Ready for Millions of New COVAIDS Positives in the UK! - 16th Sep 20
Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective - 15th Sep 20
Look at This Big Reminder of Dot.com Stock Market Mania - 15th Sep 20
Three Key Principles for Successful Disruption Investors - 15th Sep 20
Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns of 10% Inflation - 15th Sep 20
Gold Price Reaches $2,000 Amid Dollar Depreciation - 15th Sep 20
GLD, IAU Big Gold ETF Buying MIA - 14th Sep 20
Why Bill Gates Is Betting Millions on Synthetic Biology - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September - 14th Sep 20
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On - 14th Sep 20
Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
The Silver Big Prize - 13th Sep 20
U.S. Shares Plunged. Is Gold Next? - 13th Sep 20
Why Are 7,500 Oil Barrels Floating on this London Lake? - 13th Sep 20
Sheffield 432 Covid-19 Deaths, Last City Centre Shop Before Next Lockdown - 13th Sep 20
Biden or Trump Will Keep The Money Spigots Open - 13th Sep 20
Gold And Silver Up, Down, Sideways, Up - 13th Sep 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Gold The Greatest Currency Trade of the Millennium

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Dec 26, 2009 - 02:38 PM GMT

By: DailyWealth

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChris Weber writes: Even though gold has been in a correction during these last few months, it is important to step back and see how it has out-performed every other currency since this decade, century, and millennium began.


I first recommended gold and gold stocks back in February 2002 because the trend I saw of currencies cheapening themselves against their trading partners. You can call this "competitive devaluation." This had not been seen since the Great Depression, and to me, even back then, was a signal that the world economy was heading into tough times.
Since about 2001, whenever any currency rises too much, the local manufacturers or farmers – or anyone who lives by exporting – start to scream about it. Their local governments respond by doing all they can to lower the value of that currency, having it fall in value and thus making exports cheaper, all this in the hope that the domestic economy will become better.

Pick any period so far this young century and you'll see how this is true. For instance, right now you see it in those countries whose currencies have soared the most in the last few months. Let's focus on a recent highflying currency...

The New Zealand dollar has soared 23.6% against the U.S. dollar from mid-March through mid-June. That's the best three-month performance for the Kiwi dollar since way back in 1971, when currencies began floating against each other. New Zealand depends on exports, especially agricultural exports. Total export prices have plunged 8.2% from last quarter 2008 to first quarter 2009. This is not an annualized rate, either, but a quarter-to-quarter drop. If it continued at that rate, it would mean a 33% fall in export income over the year.

Now, the New Zealand monetary authorities are doing all they can do cheapen their dollar. That includes slashing interest rates to just 2.5%, which is a shock to those of us who remember Kiwi interest rates as being the highest in the world. They are printing money and talking about actively intervening in the currency markets to sell their dollar short. New Zealand's Finance Minister, Bill English, just came right out and said that his government would prefer a weaker currency.

The same thing is happening in Switzerland, Australia, Canada, and Norway, which have all seen their currencies strengthen recently.

At any given time in the last few years, whichever currencies have been strongest have screamed about it. A year ago, with the euro at $1.60, Germany – a huge exporting country – basically said it wanted a cheaper euro. It got it: The euro fell to $1.23 within months. The UK wanted its highflying pound, then $2.10, to fall to boost domestic and foreign demand for its goods. It got its wish: Within months, the pound had plunged to $1.45. And on it has gone for a few years now.

As all the countries with unwanted strong currencies move to cheapen them by printing more money, slashing interest rates, or just "talking" it down, the question remains, just what are those high currencies declining against?

If you answer, "against the currencies of their main trading partners," well, yes, this is true. But it is only temporary. If they are successful in this, then the trading partners don't want their own currencies to go too high, so at some point they try to cheapen them.

It has become an endless round-robin game, except to call it a "game" is a little perverse. All holders of currencies suffer in the decline of the purchasing power of their money. You go lower, but then your partners go even lower, and then you have to cheapen your money yet more... It's an endless cycle that really doesn't help the world economy in the long run.

But there has been one money that has benefited from this huge trend. Moreover, it has benefited by giving profits of hundreds of percent –minimum – to anyone on Earth who has owned it since 2000. It is the oldest money of all, a money that has been used long before any of the other currencies were even dreamed about and will be used long after all of them are memories in history books. It is a money that cannot be printed at will and artificially cheapened. And even though all central banks own it, it is the creature of none of them.

I'm speaking, in case you haven't guessed, about gold. Sure, you can play the currency market. I've done it for over 35 years now, and have done nicely. You can buy a currency that is way too cheap and wait, getting paid nice interest while you wait. (At least you could have done that until recently. Now no matter what currency you hold you get paid nearly zero.)

But shall we now see what gold has done in terms of the major currencies of the world?

The South African rand has been the strongest currency so far this year. It is a big gold producer. Yet look the price of an ounce of gold since 2000 in terms of the rand.

Now let's go to another currency which has risen sharply this year, the Aussie dollar.

You see the pattern. Now, gold has not gone up in value against the Chinese yuan (+200%) as much as it has against the U.S. dollar (+260%). Still as great as the Chinese economy has been over the past decade, as powerful as it has become, gold has still soared in terms of the yuan.

It has soared against the Canadian dollar (+178%), the Russian ruble (+360%), the Mexican peso (+417%), and even the Swiss franc (+155%), a currency that has long been regarded as the strongest on Earth.

You can talk about or trade the merits of one paper currency against the other, but they've all been falling against gold.

Put another way, every person on Earth over the past decade, regardless of where they live, would have made hundreds of percent in terms of their own currency had they just owned gold.

Most people do not hold mostly gold and silver in their portfolios. With this fact, I believe that both have much more to rise before their bull markets are finished. Well into the future we'll see the phenomena of the average person piling in, as happens towards the end of every bull market... We'll see the same action in gold; it's just a matter of time.

Good investing,

Chris

Editor's note: Chris Weber is one of the best investors we know, period. He started investing at age 16 and made so much money, he's never had a "real" job in his life. The fact is, we've never seen him wrong about a major market call. For Chris' favorite currency and gold recommendations – where he's putting his own money today – click here.

http://www.dailywealth.com

The DailyWealth Investment Philosophy: In a nutshell, my investment philosophy is this: Buy things of extraordinary value at a time when nobody else wants them. Then sell when people are willing to pay any price. You see, at DailyWealth, we believe most investors take way too much risk. Our mission is to show you how to avoid risky investments, and how to avoid what the average investor is doing. I believe that you can make a lot of money – and do it safely – by simply doing the opposite of what is most popular.

Customer Service: 1-888-261-2693 – Copyright 2009 Stansberry & Associates Investment Research. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC. 1217 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Daily Wealth Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules