Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Trade News Still Relevant? - 19th Nov 19
Comments on Catena Media Q3 Report 2019 - 19th Nov 19
Venezuela’s Hyperinflation Drags On For A Near Record—36 Months - 18th Nov 19
Intellectual Property as the New Guild System - 18th Nov 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q3’ 2019 Fundamentals - 18th Nov 19
The Best Way To Play The Coming Gold Boom - 18th Nov 19
What ECB’s Tiering Means for Gold - 17th Nov 19
DOJ Asked to Examine New Systemic Risk in Gold & Silver Markets - 17th Nov 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Cycle Update and are we there yet? - 17th Nov 19
When the Crude Oil Price Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III - 17th Nov 19
If History Repeats, Gold is Headed to $8,000 - 17th Nov 19
All You Need To Know About Cryptocurrency - 17th Nov 19
What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 – Part II - 15th Nov 19
America’s Exceptionalism’s Non-intervention Slide to Conquest, Empire - and Socialism - 15th Nov 19
Five Gold Charts to Contemplate as We Prepare for the New Year - 15th Nov 19
Best Gaming CPU Nov 2019 - Budget, Mid and High End PC System Processors - 15th Nov 19
Lend Money Without A Credit Check — Is That Possible? - 15th Nov 19
Gold and Silver Capitulation Time - 14th Nov 19
The Case for a Silver Price Rally - 14th Nov 19
What Happens To The Global Economy If the Oil Price Collapses Below $40 - 14th Nov 19
7 days of Free FX + Crypto Forecasts -- Join in - 14th Nov 19
How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader – SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas - 13th Nov 19
Morrisons Throwing Thousands of Bonus More Points at Big Spend Shoppers - JACKPOT! - 13th Nov 19
What to Do NOW in Case of a Future Banking System Breakdown - 13th Nov 19
Why China is likely to remain the ‘world’s factory’ for some time to come - 13th Nov 19
Gold Price Breaks Down, Waving Good-bye to the 2019 Rally - 12th Nov 19
Fed Can't See the Bubbles Through the Lather - 12th Nov 19
Double 11 Record Sales Signal Strength of Chinese Consumption - 12th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Oil, Gold and Stocks Investing – Part II - 12th Nov 19
Gold Retest Coming - 12th Nov 19
New Evidence Futures Markets Are Built for Manipulation - 12th Nov 19
Next 5 Year Future Proof Gaming PC Build Spec November 2019 - Ryzen 9 3900x, RTX 2080Ti... - 12th Nov 19
Gold and Silver - The Two Horsemen - 11th Nov 19
Towards a Diverging BRIC Future - 11th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Stock Market Investing - 11th Nov 19
Illiquidity & Gold And Silver In The End Game - 11th Nov 19
Key Things You Need to Know When Starting a Business - 11th Nov 19
Stock Market Cycles Peaking - 11th Nov 19
Avoid Emotional Investing in Cryptocurrency - 11th Nov 19
Australian Lithium Mines NOT Viable at Current Prices - 10th Nov 19
The 10 Highest Paying Jobs In Oil & Gas - 10th Nov 19
World's Major Gold Miners Target Copper Porphyries - 10th Nov 19
AMAZON NOVEMBER 2019 BARGAIN PRICES - WD My Book 8TB External Drive for £126 - 10th Nov 19
Gold & Silver to Head Dramatically Higher, Mirroring Palladium - 9th Nov 19
How Do YOU Know the Direction of a Market's Larger Trend? - 9th Nov 19
BEST Amazon SMART Scale To Aid Weight Loss for Christmas 2019 - 9th Nov 19
Why Every Investor Should Invest in Water - 8th Nov 19
Wait… Was That a Bullish Silver Reversal? - 8th Nov 19
Gold, Silver and Copper The 3 Metallic Amigos and the Macro Message - 8th Nov 19
Is China locking up Indonesian Nickel? - 8th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

$4 Billion Golden Oppoerunity

S&P500 Stocks Index Long Term Technical Outlook

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Jan 02, 2010 - 12:17 PM GMT

By: Guy_Lerner

Stock-Markets

Looking out over the next 12 months, my outlook for the S&P500 is bullish. This may surprise many of you as I have had a cautious bent for the better part of six months now, and I have been writing about selling something, anything for the past 6 weeks.


Make no mistake about it, this market needs a correction, and with the market looking toppy, I believe we are nearing the point that a correction will begin. So despite my 12 month bullish outlook, I would not make an out sized allocation to equities until investor sentiment (as measured by the "Dumb Money" indicator) turns bearish (i.e., bull signal). How deep should the correction be? I don't have a clue. Any pullback will likely find willing buyers - especially when investor sentiment turns bearish (i.e., bull signal). This much is a given. The correction will not be the end of this bullish run that started in March, 2009; it will be a buying opportunity.

While it seems obvious that any meaningful correction will lead to a buying opportunity -as it usually does - the longer term perspective suggests that markets won't roll over so easily, and to understand why this is so, we need to look at a monthly chart of the S&P500. See figure 1.

Figure 1. S&P500/ monthly

The red and black dots on the price bars are high and low pivot points, respectively. If we draw a trend line from the two most recent pivot high points, we note that the S&P500 broke this trend line back in November (see the blue up arrows on the graph). This is bullish. How bullish? This price behavior - a break of a down sloping trend line - is bullish enough to suggest that we will not have a market top of significance until there are a clustering of negative divergence bars (see pink marked price bars with ovals on price chart at 2000 and 2007 tops) or there is a close below a pivot low point. (Of note, this price behavior is fairly consistent across decades of price data when looking at the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrials, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000.)

The clustering of negative divergence bars implies slowing upside momentum, and we are at least two months away from possibly developing our first one. One negative divergence typically implies a trading range. While several negative divergence bars implies the strong possibility of a market top. In addition, as the market has gone straight up since March, there are no pivot low points, and the bounce following the first pull back (if and when it comes) is likely to create one. If the markets were to close below this pivot low point, then it will be another bear market.

All this is going to take time. So my bullish "call" is more like I cannot get too bearish on this market in the long term. If we are going to have a market top of significance that leads to a bear market, then that top, which leads to a rollover in prices, is going to take months to develop. It is that simple.

By the end of the year, the S&P500 may not be higher, but it is unlikely to be too much lower. At some point, there will be a correction, which should be a good buying opportunity. To me, a good opportunity means that risk will be well defined and reward or upside potential will be worth playing for. And if history is any guide, we should have about 2 good buying opportunities next year.

For equities, I cannot see the secular bear market resuming without a prolong period of discourse.

By Guy Lerner

    http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/

    Guy M. Lerner, MD is the founder of ARL Advisers, LLC and managing partner of ARL Investment Partners, L.P. Dr. Lerner utilizes a research driven approach to determine those factors which lead to sustainable moves in the markets. He has developed many proprietary tools and trading models in his quest to outperform. Over the past four years, Lerner has shared his innovative approach with the readers of RealMoney.com and TheStreet.com as a featured columnist. He has been a regular guest on the Money Man Radio Show, DEX-TV, routinely published in the some of the most widely-read financial publications and has been a marquee speaker at financial seminars around the world.

    © 2009 Copyright Guy Lerner - All Rights Reserved
    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

    Guy Lerner Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules