Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives - 8th Dec 24
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 - 2nd Dec 24
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

U.S. Dollar Against Stocks Correlation Still Exists

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Jan 09, 2010 - 01:17 AM GMT

By: Guy_Lerner

Stock-Markets

As you all know, there has been a tight correlation between the US Dollar Index and equities for the better part of 9 months. If the Dollar goes down, then equities go up. Even if there is a hint that the Dollar might go down - let's say, a bad employment report suggesting that the Fed will keep its foot on the monetary pedal even longer- stocks go up. We all have the drill down. The Fed throws us a biscuit, and we all stand up and bark!


Since the Dollar has started to show signs of reversing its down trend, several market commentators have remarked that how resilient stocks have been in the face of a rising Dollar, and some have suggested that the correlation between the Dollar and equities has been broken.

I say not so fast. See figure 1 a 60 minute bar chart comparing the Power Shares QQQ Trust Series (symbol: QQQQ) in the upper panel with the Power Shares DB US Dollar Bull (symbol: UUP) in the lower panel. Going back to mid - October, the correlation is pretty easy to see - Dollar down, stocks up. Starting in December, the Dollar broke its down trend (gray oval on chart), and stocks went sideways. This is a plus for stocks as the Dollar was up and stocks held their ground.

Figure 1. QQQQ v. UUP/ 60 minute

Now look to the upper right on the chart. These gray rectangles depict the last two weeks of trading. The relationship of Dollar down and stocks up still appears to be holding true to form as the Dollar is at the lower end of its range and stocks are at the upper end.

I see no evidence that the correlation between the Dollar and stocks has been broken. Although it is all stocks all the time for most people, it is no secret that I am not buying the hype of this rally although I do have exposure to various sectors that I have mentioned in this blog including regional banks, utilities, housing, Japan, and Canada. With shares so overbought and sentiment overdone and headwinds mounting, there are heightened risks although most investors believe that the government and Federal reserve have back stopped the market and taken risk out of the equation. Nonetheless, there is good reason to believe (and I have to yet to present the data) that the Dollar could rise, and as this correlation between stocks and the Dollar still exists, this would pressure equities.

Regardless what you think, this relationship between the Dollar and equities bears watching.

By Guy Lerner

    http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/

    Guy M. Lerner, MD is the founder of ARL Advisers, LLC and managing partner of ARL Investment Partners, L.P. Dr. Lerner utilizes a research driven approach to determine those factors which lead to sustainable moves in the markets. He has developed many proprietary tools and trading models in his quest to outperform. Over the past four years, Lerner has shared his innovative approach with the readers of RealMoney.com and TheStreet.com as a featured columnist. He has been a regular guest on the Money Man Radio Show, DEX-TV, routinely published in the some of the most widely-read financial publications and has been a marquee speaker at financial seminars around the world.

    © 2010 Copyright Guy Lerner - All Rights Reserved
    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

    Guy Lerner Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in