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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Stock Market SPY Index Trading Sell Signal

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Jan 11, 2010 - 12:45 AM GMT

By: Angelo_Campione

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrent Positioning: SPY: Short 75%


General Commentary:

Well the week didn't quite pan out as anticipated, while we got the expected pop up on Monday, the weakness expected for the rest of the week didn't happen.

What does this mean? Well, not a great deal, the system remains in on a sell signal and has been diverging with the market for a while now. One of two things will happen soon, either the market starts to move lower or the system will move into a buy signal.

I know that it's frustrating to be positioned on one side when the market moves in the opposite but it seems that this is all part of the trials on the journey to the tribulations. We need to follow the system and not be swayed by the short-term appearances, and hopefully you aren't leveraged to a point where you're losing sleep over this market action.

We're heading into options expiration this week and while this is a traditionally bullish period, we could see a bit of choppiness during the week.

SPX Chart - Bigger Picture

For the medium term we continue to see a rising bearish wedge, with the market closing at the upper end of the wedge.
I've drawn a line at 1200 to show the next resistance level if the wedge does in fact break to the upside. At this point we maintain a bearish stand.

SPX Chart - Shorter Picture

With the market making a new local high, the rising wedge is taking a slightly different path to that reported last week. In any event, the negative divergence on the MACD continues and we could get some choppiness in the short term.
For the week ahead, support on the SPX is 1120 and resistance at 1150 - 1160.

The VIX Picture

Just like the above wedge for the SPX has been adjusted for the extra rise last week, so too has the falling bullish wedge been adjusted for the VIX.

With the substantial drop in the VIX this past week, we're seeing that the market is beginning to believe that it's smooth sailing ahead. You can bet that when the crowd starts to lean to heavily on one side, the likelihood for a reversal increases substantially.

The VIX measures the premiums investors are willing to pay for option contracts and is essentially a measure of fear i.e. the higher the VIX, the higher the fear in the market place. It tends to move inversely with the markets.

Performance

We're using a starting capital of $5,000 and allocations are based on 25% of this or the remaining balance.

Feel free to email me at angelo@stockbarometer.com if you have any questions or comments.

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By Angelo Campione

Important Disclosure
Futures, Options, Mutual Fund, ETF and Equity trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy/sell Futures, Options, Mutual Funds or Equities. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this Web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Performance results are hypothetical. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as a lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Investment Research Group and all individuals affiliated with Investment Research Group assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results.
Investment Research Group (IRG), as a publisher of a financial newsletter of general and regular circulation, cannot tender individual investment advice. Only a registered broker or investment adviser may advise you individually on the suitability and performance of your portfolio or specific investments.
In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and examination of the fact and records relating to such investments. Past performance of our recommendations is not an indication of future performance. The publisher shall have no liability of whatever nature in respect of any claims, damages, loss, or expense arising out of or in connection with the reliance by you on the contents of our Web site, any promotion, published material, alert, or update.
For a complete understanding of the risks associated with trading, see our Risk Disclosure.

© 2010 Copyright Angelo Campione - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


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