Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Trumponomics Stock Market 2018 - The Manchurian President (1/2) - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Yield Curve Inversion a Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril - Dan_Amerman
3.China is Now Officially at War With the US and Japan - Graham_Summers
4.Markets Pay Attention Moment - China’s Bubble Economy Ripe for Bursting - 16th Jul 18 - Plunger
5.Stock Market Longer-Term Charts Show Incredible Potential - Chris_Vermeulen
6.U.S. Stock Market Cycles Update - Jim_Curry
7.Another Stock Market Drop Next Week? - Brad_Gudgeon
8.The Death of the US Real Estate Dream - Harry_Dent
9.Gold Market Signal vs. Noise - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
10.The Fonzie–Ponzi Theory of Government Debt: An Update - F_F_Wiley
Last 7 days
Impulse Moves in the Currencies - 15th Aug 19
Best Merlin UK Theme Park Summer Holiday 2018 - Thorpe, Alton Towers, LegoLand or Chessington? - 15th Aug 19
The Essence of Writing an Essay that Must be Understood - 15th Aug 19
Is Solar Energy Rising From The Ashes Again? - 15th Aug 19
A Bullish Bond Argument That Hides in Plain Sight - 15th Aug 19
Jim Rogers on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Blockchain’s “Spectacular Future” - 15th Aug 19
A Depressed Economy And A Silver Boom - 15th Aug 19
Moving Averages Help You Define Market Trend – Here’s How - 14th Aug 18
It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey - 14th Aug 18
Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors - 14th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - 13th Aug 18
Stock Market Downtrend to Continue? - 13th Aug 18
More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 - 13th Aug 18
New Stock Market Correction Underway - 13th Aug 18
Talk Cold Turkey Economic Crisis - 13th Aug 18
Which UK Best Theme Park - Alton Towers vs Thorpe Park vs Lego Land vs Chessington World - 12th Aug 18
USD is Rising. What this Means for Currencies and Stocks - 12th Aug 18
Hardest US Housing Market Places to Live - Look Out Middle Class - 12th Aug 18
America’s Suburbs Are Making a Comeback - 12th Aug 18
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle, Seasonal Analysis and Economy - Video - 12th Aug 18
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market - Video - 11th Aug 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport 1st Dealer Oil Change Service - What to Expect - 11th Aug 18
How to Setup Webinars and Use Them to Overcome the Barriers in E-Learning - 11th Aug 18
Big US Stocks’ Q2’18 Fundamentals - 11th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - 10th Aug 18
SPX Testing Its First Support Level - 10th Aug 18
Dreaming of a "Comfortable Retirement" on a Public Pension? - 10th Aug 18
The Forrest Gump of All Future Democrat Election Losses - 10th Aug 18
More Uncertainty as Stocks Got Closer to January Record High - 10th Aug 18
Gold and Silver Kill Zone - 9th Aug 18
Even More Cracks in the Gold Dam - 9th Aug 18
Ignore the Stock Market “midterm election year”, Which is “supposed” to be Weak - 9th Aug 18
Stock Market Trend and Volatility Analysis - Video - 9th Aug 18
Tips on Maximizing Small Serviced Offices Space - 9th Aug 18
VIX’s Collapse is Bullish for VIX and the Stock Market - 9th Aug 18
Vestles Platform Offers Several Key Trading Tools - 8th Aug 18
US Stock Markets Higher Until November 2018 - Part 2 - 8th Aug 18
US Stock Markets Higher Until November 2018 - Part 1 - 8th Aug 18
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle and Seasonal Analysis - 8th Aug 18
Is the Stock Market Correction Over? - 7th Aug 18
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market - 7th Aug 18
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast - Video - 7th Aug 18
Trade War! Win the Economic Hostilities Against the Chinese - 7th Aug 18
Technical Analyst Sees Silver as 'Oversold' - 7th Aug 18
Alex Jones Banned! Will Unapproved Opinions Be Censored Off the Internet? - 7th Aug 18
Gold and Silver Stocks On the Verge of the Next Major Decline - 7th Aug 18
First Time Buyers Need to ‘boost the affordability’ of Their Move Alone  - 7th Aug 18
Long Term Care Homes as an Investment are Heating Up! - 7th Aug 18
The Exponential Inflationary Stocks Bull Market - Video - 6th Aug 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport Oil Change Service Dash Warning Message - 6th Aug 18
Restructuring of Western Economic Power - 6th Aug 18
Stock Market Trend and Volatility Analysis - 6th Aug 18
Stock Market and Economy False Narratives That are Just Wrong - 6th Aug 18
VPN – Is It Worth It? - 6th Aug 18
All You Need to Know About Umbrella Companies - 6th Aug 18
Why China Lost the Trade War Before it Even Began - SSEC Stocks Index - Video - 5th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 5th Aug 18
Iran's Rial Currency Is In A Death Spiral, Again - 5th Aug 18
IMF Produces Another Bogus Venezuela Inflation Forecast - 5th Aug 18
Gold & Silver Precious Metals Monthly Charts - 5th Aug 18
Time to Position for a Decade-Long Bull Market in Natural Resources - 5th Aug 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

Pakistan Collapse Could Trigger Global Great Depression and World War III

Politics / Pakistan Jan 16, 2010 - 08:47 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDuring 2009 the 2600 terrorist attacks resulted in the number of deaths soaring to more than 12,000 casualties in Pakistan, compared to the number killed in Iraq falling to 2,800 from the 2008 total of 5,900. The U.S. War in Afghanistan pushed the Taliban and Al-Qeeda over the border into Pakistan that has sparked an escalating insurgency and Pakistan's own U.S. backed un-popular "War on Terror" which is going just as badly as that in Afghanistan, only without the deep financial pockets to embark up on an never ending war that is increasingly sapping what little strength the Pakistan Economy had out of it and now seriously risks the collapse of the state due to the stress of the conflict on the economy and society.


The world appears to be sleep walking towards a mega-crisis during 2010 and beyond resulting from that of continuing and escalating terrorist insurgency fed by U.S. policy, that is spreading like a cancer across Pakistan resulting in the disintegration of the Pakistani economy and by consequence the disintegration of many areas of the state into lawless areas despite the size of the Pakistani Army, this would result in fallout across the whole region and the wider world on a scale of several magnitudes greater than that which followed the collapse of Iraq following the 2003 invasion.

Pakistan populated by more than 170 million people could turn into a black hole that could swallow many more trillions of dollars in an escalating but ultimately unwinnable war on terror that would disrupt not only the economies of the west with hundreds of thousands more boots on the ground, but also the economies of the neighbouring states, especially India, Iran and China much as the war in Afghanistan had increasingly impacted on the Pakistani state and economy over the past few years.

Not only is Pakistan's vast military industrial complex and arms stock piles at risk, but far more deadly than the IED's or klashnikovs are Pakistan's nuclear and chemical weapons that could greatly increase the risks of a series of dirty bombs emerging from within a failed state even if the nuclear weapons themselves remained secure.

Therefore the Pakistan crisis has the potential for becoming a very significant factor when determining the direction of the global economy over the coming years due to both a mega refugee crisis that would emerge from a failed state and the conflagration of conflict across the region, unless action is taken to stabilise the situation in Pakistan towards which the following could form part of:

1. First world military technology such as drone air-craft and satellite surveillance made available to the Pakistan army to enable it to fight a more precise war against the Taliban Leadership without unpopular blanket warfare across regions of the country that only results in the conflict spreading and new recruits for the insurgency.

Therefore Pakistan's War Against Terror needs to be greatly de-escalated rather than escalated, basically a strategy of containment of the Taliban in the Pushtoon areas rather invite more Pushtoon's to join the Taliban as a consequence of Pakistani Army actions. This would allow the rest of a more ethnically and culturally diverse Pakistan to stabilise rather than become sucked into an ever widening conflict.

2. To financially support and reform the Pakistan Government and economy into a self sustaining secular growth machine and as a far less corrupt entity than at present, much as the United States succeeded in turning the collapsed economies of Germany and Japan around following the second world war that would seek to pull Pakistan's people out of poverty and illiteracy, especially aimed at the impoverished youth that are increasingly falling pray to the Taliban ideology of holy war.

The alternative of remaining on the present path risks the already debt saddled western worlds economies sowing the seeds of a Pakistan Collapse triggered Great Depression, much as many aspects of today's economic and financial crisis have their roots in both Afghanistan and Iraq and with even far worse consequences for the neighbouring states of Iran, India, China and perhaps Russia as the conflict falls out of Pakistan's borders.

However at present U.S. and Western focus is primarily focused on bombing the Taliban and Al-Qeeda from the air and enticing the Pakistani army to embark on huge military expeditions against large regions of Pakistan, therefore not learning a single lesson from either Iraq or Afghanistan that the real solution is to win hearts and minds which cannot be done through carpet bombing of towns and cities but rather through building civil society and infrastructure.

Unless action is taken now to change course then we may look back at the present in a few years time and say why did we not do something when we had the chance to prevent the Great Hyper-Inflationary Depression and resulting Global War much as the 1930's Great Deflationary Depression ultimately resulted in the Second World War.

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16543.html

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and the housing market . Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 500 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

David
25 Jan 10, 04:19
Who has the money

American Economy set for the second leg down is in no shape to turn any other country around. In fact it will be hard pressed to prop itself up let alone fix Pakistan up.

I see USA in a gambit to run Oil pipelines through Pakistan and Afghanistan that will be blown up on a daily level.

While they are keeping China from getting access to oil at the moment this won't hold much longer .If the second leg down in the US economy comes this year Americans will be out in the streets rioting at the least .

Should the second leg down come in the US economy Desperation will begin in America in earnest.

the wars will be condemned as they should already have been,by the American people.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules