Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
This Is Your Last Chance to Dump Netflix Stock - 19th July 19
Gold and US Stock Mid Term Election and Decade Cycles - 19th July 19
Precious Metals Big Picture, as Silver Gets on its Horse - 19th July 19
This Technology Everyone Laughed Off Is Quietly Changing the World - 19th July 19
Green Tech Stocks To Watch - 19th July 19
Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Stock Market Topping Signals - 18th July 19
AI Machine Learning PC Custom Build Specs for £2,500 - Scan Computers 3SX - 18th July 19
The Best “Pick-and-Shovel” Play for the Online Grocery Boom - 18th July 19
Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? - 18th July 19
Biotech Stocks With Near Term Catalysts - 18th July 19
SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus - 18th July 19
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19
Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why - 13th July 19
Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? - 13th July 19
Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part - 13th July 19
Key Stage 2 SATS Tests Results Grades and Scores GDS, EXS, WTS Explained - 13th July 19
INTEL Stock Investing in Qubits and AI Neural Network Processors - Video - 12th July 19
Gold Price Selloff Risk High - 12th July 19
State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable - 12th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State - 12th July 19
Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? - 11th July 19
Platinum Price vs Gold Price - 11th July 19
What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing - 11th July 19
Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing - 11th July 19
This Tobacco Stock Is a Big Winner from E-Cigarette Bans - 11th July 19
Investing in Life Extending Pharma Stocks - 11th July 19
How to Pay for It All: An Option the Presidential Candidates Missed - 11th July 19
Mining Stocks Flash Powerful Signal for Gold and Silver Markets - 11th July 19
5 Surefire Ways to Get More Viewers for Your Video Series - 11th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

This Could Crush Stock Market Valuations

Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations Jan 17, 2010 - 01:31 PM GMT

By: DailyWealth

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePorter Stansberry writes: By now, most every DailyWealth reader knows the argument for higher interest rates.

Simply put, the U.S. government is facing a staggering amount of unfunded liabilities in 2010... around $3.5 trillion to be exact. As I described in my commentary on the Greenspan/Guidotti rule, the only way the government can make the interest payments on this debt (a good deal of which has been acquired in the past 12 months) is by printing money.


This money printing will continue to debase the dollar... and will drive our creditors to demand higher and higher rates of interest. If you haven't read this piece, please know it's one of the most important things I've ever written. It's imperative that you understand what's happening. You can read it here.

This situation is, without a doubt, the single most important financial trend in the world. It will not only affect the bond market, it will come to greatly affect the stock market, too.

You see, what most people don't understand about the huge bull market in stocks over the last 30 years is that it was mostly funded by debt and powered by falling interest rates.

Earnings were driven by growth in GDP, which was fueled by the greatest expansion in public and private debt in history. Keep in mind, over the last 30 years, America went from being the world's largest creditor to the world's largest debtor. At the same time, the interest on our debts fell every year, nearly in a straight line. This is the best recipe you can script for soaring asset prices.

Consider how these factors worked in your own neighborhood. As interest rates fell, more people could afford a bigger mortgage. And as more credit became available, more people were competing to buy homes. Prices rose. Rising prices allowed more credit to become available. As more credit was available, interest rates fell more. The cycle continued.

In the stock market, falling interest rates increased earnings because companies spent less maintaining their debts. At the same time, consumers had more money to spend. Not only did earnings rise, but more importantly, the value of equities rose in terms of earnings multiples.

When interest rates are very high, fewer investors are interested in stocks. But as interest rates fell, more and more investors had to buy stocks to earn an acceptable rate of return.

Rather than trading for 10 times earnings or less, stocks began to trade at 20 times earnings or more. At the peak of stock valuation in 2000, the S&P 500 was trading at almost 45 times earnings. Today, the valuation is still high – around 20 – because interest rates are still very, very low. If interest rates on U.S. bonds go to more than 10%, stock market valuations will plunge. At the height of the last interest-rate cycle in the early 1980s, the S&P 500 traded at around seven times earnings.

It will happen again. But right now, few people believe it's possible. It's instructive to note who does think this risk is real...

Hedge-fund billionaire John Paulson says he no longer trusts the dollar as his reserve currency and has put a huge amount of his fortune into gold. The world's biggest bond investor, Bill Gross, recently posted this on his website: "We caution that the days of carefree, check-writing leading to debt issuance without limit or interest-rate consequences may be numbered for all countries."

And in August, Warren Buffett himself wrote an op-ed to the New York Times warning about inflation:

The United States economy is now out of the emergency room and appears to be on a slow path to recovery. But enormous dosages of monetary medicine continue to be administered and, before long, we will need to deal with their side effects.

For now, most of those effects are invisible and could indeed remain latent for a long time. Still, their threat may be as ominous as that posed by the financial crisis itself... the Treasury will be obliged to find another $900 billion to finance the remainder of the $1.8 trillion of debt it is issuing. Washington's printing presses will need to work overtime.

He told CNBC the government's efforts to paper over the banking crisis "are potentially very inflationary... worse than the 1970s inflation."

As a stock investor, what should you do to prepare? I'd avoid conventional growth stocks... the kind that carry P/E multiples in the 20-40 range. Contracting multiples are particularly hard on these sorts of stocks. They have the most value to shed. Make sure to own the best businesses you can find... stalwarts like Verizon and Johnson & Johnson. Ideally, you'll want to buy them for less than 10 times cash flow (a metric similar to earnings).

Also... you'll want to skew your stock holdings toward commodities, like energy and precious metals. These sectors do well when inflation is rising, when the government bond market is correcting, and when earnings multiples in the stock market contract. In tomorrow's essay, I'll show you my favorite commodity sector to buy right now.

Good investing,

Porter Stansberry

http://www.dailywealth.com

The DailyWealth Investment Philosophy: In a nutshell, my investment philosophy is this: Buy things of extraordinary value at a time when nobody else wants them. Then sell when people are willing to pay any price. You see, at DailyWealth, we believe most investors take way too much risk. Our mission is to show you how to avoid risky investments, and how to avoid what the average investor is doing. I believe that you can make a lot of money – and do it safely – by simply doing the opposite of what is most popular.

Customer Service: 1-888-261-2693 – Copyright 2010 Stansberry & Associates Investment Research. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC. 1217 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Daily Wealth Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules