Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Why Most Investors LOST Money by Investing in ARK FUNDS - 27th Jan 22
The “play-to-earn” trend taking the crypto world by storm - 27th Jan 22
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Anticipated Stock Market Correction on Not So Hot Bank Earnings and Economic Data

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Jan 25, 2010 - 11:27 AM GMT

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Stock-Markets

We may have gotten our answer posed last week with the thud heard on Wall Street this week; earnings at the banks are not that great and neither is the economic data, giving the equity markets a bad case of the flu! Housing continues in a funk, with starts declining (again), although those looking at the glass half full would say that permits (a leading indicator) rose – potentially providing some good news in the months ahead. Also jumping a bit were initial jobless claims, and more importantly the rise above its 10-week average, potentially ending talk of job gains come the February jobs report.


Evidence of job losses showed up in a report from the states showing job losses in 44 of the 50 states. Elsewhere in the world, China may be putting a brake on their economic growth by raising interest rates (which may be the culprit behind the market decline) and President Obama, after handing out billions in financial aid to the banking system started talking tough about regulation. Did last week serve notice that the equity markets are undergoing a serious change or merely a correction? We’re betting on the former than the latter.

The equity markets finished the week on a very sour note, with both the NYSE and OTC markets registering 1000 more declining issues than advancing for three consecutive days, which has not been seen since late February 2009, just as the mighty bear market finished its feeding frenzy. What makes this decline significant are the breaking of the up trend line since the March bottom, increased volume as the markets declined and a significant break of the 50-day moving average. We fully expect a market rally early in the week the character of that advance should determine whether the decline of last week was the beginning of the much anticipated “correction” that is supposed to take the markets down 10% or so.

With half already in the bag and investor sentiment still very high, we expect that over the coming weeks, we could easily see another 5% shaved from the averages as investors fret about a variety of economic ills, new financial legislation or poor earnings data. The increase in volume during much of the decline indicates that investors are very willing to sell holdings quickly, rather than wait for further economic or company data.  If the rally does come early in the week and does on rather anemic volume, we may be tempted to reduce our equity exposure some during the week.

The bond model remains in bullish territory at “3”, indicating the likely direction of interest rates over the coming weeks is down. The weak economic data as well as declining equity prices kept the treasury market bid rather strong as investors begin to reallocate some funds to bonds from equities. While the line is not direct from weak equities to strong bonds, bonds are one of the only low correlated asset classes with equities at this time.

We saw correlations rise during the ’06-’07 market advance and they stayed high during the decline. Although bonds are yielding very little at this point, they do provide some certainty about the return OF capital at the end of a period of time as well as (at least) a small income component.

By Paul J. Nolte CFA
http://www.hinsdaleassociates.com
mailto:pnolte@hinsdaleassociates.com

Copyright © 2010 Paul J. Nolte - All Rights Reserved.
Paul J Nolte is Director of Investments at Hinsdale Associates of Hinsdale. His qualifications include : Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) , and a Member Investment Analyst Society of Chicago.

Disclaimer - The opinions expressed in the Investment Newsletter are those of the author and are based upon information that is believed to be accurate and reliable, but are opinions and do not constitute a guarantee of present or future financial market conditions.

Paul J. Nolte Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in