round table discussion the panel agreed that short term we are likely to see a rally in the stock market and commodities but that lower lows will follow. There was less than agreement about the long term picture.

Steven Vincent has been bullish since March but has turned bearish on the intermediate term and is ready to turn on the long term as well. Larry Katz has been long term bullish since March but has turned bearish on the intermediate term while remaining firmly long term bullish. Andrew Cardwell has been neutral to bearish since March but has once again turned firmly bearish. The panel agreed that a short term bounce is likely and that the intraday reversal on Friday was the beginning of a bounce. All regard this bounce as a shorting opportunity.

Steven’s analysis focused on moving average, Fibonnaci, trend channel and price resistance levels. He noted that the NYSE recently ran into very long term moving average resistance on the weekly and monthly charts.

Larry featured a range of momentum, breadth and sentiment indicators which revealed shorter term weakness but long term strength.

Andrew Cardwell’s analysis of Relative Strength shows weakness in all time frames and his chart of RSI on a monthly basis seems to indicate that the rally from the March low was a move within a larger bear market.

Good Trading!

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By Steve Vincent

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© 2010 Copyright Steven Vincent - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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