Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 - 22nd Nov 20
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Correction - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend - 21st Nov 20
Why Budgies Make Great Pets for Kids - 21st Nov 20
How To Find The Best Dry Dog Food For Your Furry Best Friend?  - 21st Nov 20
The Key to a Successful LGBT Relationship is Matching by Preferences - 21st Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 20th Nov 20
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" - 20th Nov 20
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery - 20th Nov 20
Dating Sites Break all the Stereotypes About Distance - 20th Nov 20
THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE - Video - 19th Nov 20
Reasons why Bitcoin is Treading at it's Highest Level Since 2017 and a Warning - 19th Nov 20
Media Celebrates after Trump’s Pro-Gold Fed Nominee Gets Blocked - 19th Nov 20
DJIA Short-term Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th Nov 20
Demoncracy Ushers in the Flu World Order How to Survive and Profit From What Is Coming - 19th Nov 20
US Bond Market: "When Investors Should Worry" - 18th Nov 20
Gold Remains the Best Pandemic Insurance - 18th Nov 20
GPU Fan Not Spinning FIX - How to Easily Extend the Life of Your Gaming PC System - 18th Nov 20
Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Tag 30k Twice – Setting Up Stock Market Double Top - 18th Nov 20
Edge Computing Is Leading the Next Great Tech Revolution - 18th Nov 20
This Chart Signals When Gold Stocks Will Explode - 17th Nov 20
Gold Price Momentous ally From 2000 Compared To SPY Stock Market and Nasdaq - 17th Nov 20
Creating Marketing Campaigns Using the Freedom of Information Act - 17th Nov 20
ILLEGITIMATE PRESIDENT - 17th Nov 20
Stock Market Uptrend in Process - 17th Nov 20
How My Friend Made $128,000 Investing in Stocks Without Knowing It - 16th Nov 20
Free-spending Biden and/or continued Fed stimulus will hike Gold prices - 16th Nov 20
Top Cheap Budgie Toys - Every Budgie Owner Should Have These Safe Bird Toys! - 16th Nov 20
Line Up For Your Jab to get your Covaids Freedom Pass and a 5% Work From Home Tax - 16th Nov 20
You May Have Overlooked These “Sleeper” Precious Metals - 16th Nov 20
Demystifying interesting facts about online Casinos - 16th Nov 20
What's Ahead for the Gold Market? - 15th Nov 20
Gold’s Momentous Rally From 2000 Compared To Stock Market SPY & QQQ - 15th Nov 20
Overclockers UK Quality of Custom Gaming System Build - OEM Windows Sticker? - 15th Nov 20
UK GCSE Exams 2021 CANCELLED! Grades Based on Mock Exams and Teacher Assessments - 15th Nov 20
Global "Debt Mountain": Beware of This "New Peak" - 13th Nov 20
Overclocking Zen 3 Ryzen 5600x, 5800x, 5900x and 5950x to 4.7ghz All Cores Cinebench R20 Scores - 13th Nov 20
Is Silver Leading Bitcoin or is Bitcoin Leading Silver? - 13th Nov 20
How Elliott Waves Simplify Your Technical Analysis - 13th Nov 20
How to buy Bitcoins using debit/credit card? - 13th Nov 20
Will COVID Vaccine Kill Gold and Silver? - 12th Nov 20
Access to Critical Market Reports - 12th Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Futures Reach 30,000 on News of COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Success - 12th Nov 20
8 Terms & Conditions You Must Know Before Asking For Life Insurance Policy Quotes - 12th Nov 20
Gold Stocks Post 2020 US Election Outlook - 11th Nov 20
Champions’ League Group Stage Draw: All You Need To Know - 11th Nov 20
Stock Market Secular Trend - 11th Nov 20
Stock Market Correction Curtailed by US Election - 11th Nov 20
What Causes a Financial Bubble? - 11th Nov 20
Ryzen 9 5900X RTX 3080 - Scan.co.uk vs Overclockers.co.uk UK Custom PC System Builder Review - 10th Nov 20
Killing Driveway Weeds FAST with a Pressure Washer - Saving Block Paving from LOTS of WEEDs - 10th Nov 20
Trump Fired, Biden Hired, What Next?  - 10th Nov 20
Looking for a Personal Loan? Here Is What You Have To Know  - 10th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

US Labor Market adds 163k Jobs? Is it for Real or another Sham?

Economics / Economic Recovery Apr 02, 2010 - 06:00 PM GMT

By: Shaily

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBlog writers have been overwhelmingly negative on the increasingly deteriorating unemployment situation in the US. No matter what data is released, they are discarded as unreal or so full of holes that an elephant could walk through them.

Even the current BLS report seems to have been bashed pretty badly by most blogs.


Taking a more realistic look at the numbers, may reveal that there seems to be some kind of traction building, that is if we believe the numbers.

Jobs have been added pretty much across the board including traditional laggards like Manufacturing and Construction services. The charts shows the path to job creation.

All sectors have added jobs. While Jobs addition have been bloated by Government census hiring of 39k, there have been permanent hiring in manufacturing and construction services.


Cells with Yellow indicate addition:

•Manufacturing has seen an up tick which was absent in Jan and Feb 2010. Construction after a weak beginning to 2010 has shown a resurgence for the first time in 6 months with an addition of 15k jobs
•Government hired 39k new census workers.
•Temporary added another 40k jobs. We need to see the temps converted into permanent for the Job creation to look real and robust
•Financial sector continues to shed Jobs as 21,000 more lost their Jobs.

Analysing the unemployed people numbers, there is a strong jump of nearly 400,00 people who have joined the ranks of unemployed beyond 27 weeks. That is a scary number.

The unemployement rate stays at 9.7%. That is if you round it off.

March 2010:

The total unemployed = 15,000,000

Civilian Labor Force = 153,910,000

Unemployment Rate for March 2010 =15 /153.91 = 9.749% (March 2010)

February 2010:

The total unemployed = 14,871,000

Civilian Labor Force = 153,512,000

Unemployment Rate for February 2010 = 9.687% (February 2010)

In reality the unemployment rate again ticked up in March compared to Feb 2010. The US economy still has a rising unemployment rate.

A classic case of wall street pulling a fast one over the unsuspecting. Every single Newspaper and News channel will run with the headline of 162k jobs addition and a steady unemployment rate and yet given new labor that has joined the labor force unemployment rate has actually ticked up again.

We have not adjusted for the atrocious assumptions of BLS model and for the time being assume that we run with these assumptions, the data clearly points to some tightness in the labor market but it is so insignificant that it may statistically almost assumed to be mere noise. If this is what a $1.5 trillion stimulus could finally achieve, I have very little words to express my sadness over the state of affairs of this nation. Every News channel is right now reporting about the glorious turn around in labor market and yet they completely forget that there is real tax payer money to the tune of $1.5 trillion behind these numbers and yet this is the result of it all at the end of 12 months.

A mere 163k addition out of which half are one time addtions?

Every other country including Germany, UK and China have seen smart recoveries in their labor market at half the cost of US labor cost stimulus. The question to ask then is where has all the money gone ? Cause stimulus did work in case of other nations. How come we still have unemployment rate that has again gone up from 9.68% to 9.74%?

How come net of Government Census hiring and Private temp hiring, we only have less than 100k new additions to show when the labor force has increased by nearly 400,000 people?

I wish someone at those News channels can have the balls to ask these questions rather than praise the efforts of FED reserve in resurrecting the economy. I wish someone who had the reach could take up gauntlet and start asking the FED and treasury, where has all the money gone? It definitely has not gone to Job creation

Source:http://www.investingcontrarian.com/global/job-addition-across-the-board-is-the-recovery-really-on/

Shaily
http://investingcontrarian.com/

Shaily is Editor at Investing Contrarian. She has over 5 year experience working with Hedge funds in derivatives.

© 2010 Copyright Shaily - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules