Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
UK Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 2nd Jun 20
US Real Estate Stats Show Big Wave Of Refinancing Is Coming - 2nd Jun 20
Let’s Make Sure This Crisis Doesn’t Go to Waste - 2nd Jun 20
Silver and Gold: Balancing More Than 100 Years Of Debt Abuse - 2nd Jun 20
The importance of effective website design in a business marketing strategy - 2nd Jun 20
AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Buying Levels Q2 2020 - 1st Jun 20
M2 Velocity Collapses – Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up? - 1st Jun 20
The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum - 1st Jun 20
AMD 3900XT, 3800XT, 3600XT Refresh Means Zen 3 4000 AMD CPU's Delayed for 5nm Until 2021? - 1st Jun 20
Why Multi-Asset Brokers Like TRADE.com are the Future of Trading - 1st Jun 20
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Gold Bull Market is Back in Play

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Apr 09, 2010 - 06:10 AM GMT

By: Seven_Days_Ahead

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Macro Trader’s view:

Our views on Gold have been well aired over the months, if not years. We are long-term bulls. But the market has suffered several steep and often protracted corrections that have on occasion endured for months.

We judge the market is currently in such a phase, but shows signs that it is now coming to an end. Naturally we expect price action to resolve into a fresh leg of the long Bull Run. But what have been the dynamics behind the market over recent months and why now is it beginning to retest the upside?


The relationship between the Dollar and Gold has been well-established throughout the current financial crisis/recession. A weak Dollar translated into strong Gold. The Dollar was weak due to a steep economic downturn which led the US monetary authorities and Administration to pump in unprecedented amounts of stimulus, which led China and others to criticize, as they feared a debasement of their own massive foreign currency reserves, primarily Dollar-denominated. So far, so good.

But the Dollar began a strong recovery late last year as several key data releases, principally December 2009 Non-Farm Payroll, came in much stronger than expected. This coincided with the Dubai debt crisis, which led to a sharp rise in risk aversion, benefitting the Dollar as traders heavily bought into safe haven trades.

The Dubai crisis morphed into the Greek debt crisis, more safe-haven buying, all of which worked against Gold.

Now the Dubai crisis is off the radar and the Greek drama, while still rumbling on, now has a safety net, albeit of untested efficacy. As a result traders have largely turned their attention to economic fundamentals, which have improved throughout this year.

Indeed the US economy looks to be slipping into a familiar recovery pattern as both ISM surveys continue to strengthen and non-farm payroll last week reported a healthy 162,000 new jobs.

Why then should this benefit Gold? Surely, stronger US data will benefit the Dollar? Yes to a degree, and the last few days have seen the Dollar bounce on lingering Greek debt fears. |But Gold too has been a major beneficiary. As the US recovery deepens and risk aversion subsides, the Dollar loses its safe haven protection and becomes victim to the Feds low interest rate policy which Bernanke has reiterated will remain in place for an extended period, (several months). But, more important for the Dollar, is the US fiscal stance. The budget deficit under Obama has exploded and so too the debt to GDP ratio and recent health reforms compound the problem.

The Obama administration offers no credible plan to shrink the deficit, so while strong growth supports the Dollar, heightened concern about US public finances undermine it thus the Gold play can reassert itself.

If the US recovery runs true to past form, the current fiscal stance together with current monetary policy could easily resolve in higher inflation. Other countries run similar policy mixes, so the only asset class truly independent from national economic policies is Gold. It is the original form of money and store of wealth.

The Fed’s stance is understandable: they don’t want to act too soon, but will when they are convinced of a self-sustaining recovery. The Obama administration’s stance isn’t understandable. Short-term fiscal stimulus was not only good but very necessary, but as the economy recovers, the Government needs to wind down its spending and repair its finances. Their inability to address traders’ fears on this matter is why we see Gold as a long-term bull market.

 

The Technical Trader’s view:

 

WEEKLY CHART

 

The power and potential of the continuation chart from mid 2008 resides in the completed Head and Shoulders continuation pattern set to drive the market up to1350 as a minimum.

 

Note too, the completed bull falling wedge…

DAILY CHART

But the force of the weekly chart becomes all the more clear when taken in conjunction with this additional Head and Shoulders pattern in the day chart.

The pattern completed yesterday.

A confirmed close above the neckline at 1134 today would sustain the bulls’ hopes.

The minimum measured move implied by the pattern? As far as 1245.

The bulls are in charge short, medium and long term.

Mark Sturdy
John Lewis

Seven Days Ahead
Be sure to sign up for and receive these articles automatically at Market Updates

Mark Sturdy, John Lewis & Philip Allwright, write exclusively for Seven Days Ahead a regulated financial advisor selling professional-level technical and macro analysis and high-performing trade recommendations with detailed risk control for banks, hedge funds, and expert private investors around the world. Check out our subscriptions.

© 2010 Copyright Seven Days Ahead - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Seven Days Ahead Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules