Most Popular
1. Dow Max Drawdown Bear Stock Market 2022 - Accumulating Deviations from the Highs - 21st Feb 22
2.Putin Starts WW3 in Ukraine, Will Use Tactical Nuclear Weapons, China Prepares Taiwan Blitzkrieg - 28th Feb 22
3.World War 3 Phase 1 - Putin WINS Ukraine War! - 25th Feb 22
5.Will There Be A 2024 US Presidential Election? - 3rd Mar 22
6.Gold and SIlver, Precious Metals Sector Is at a Terrific Buy Spot - 6th Feb 22
7.Why Putin Wants the WHOLE of Ukraine - World War 3 Untended Consequences - 6th Feb 22
8.Dow Stock Market Expected Max Drawdown 2022 - 19th Feb 22
9.Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Inflation Storm - 4th Mar 22
10.M = F - Everything is Waving! Stock Market Forward Guidance - 7th Mar 22
Last 7 days
Why Ray Dalio is WRONG About China - Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order - 24th May 22
Globalists Convene to Plan Central Bank Digital Currencies - 24th May 22
After Recent Highs, What’s Next for the Gold Junior Miners? - 24th May 22
Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! - 21st May 22
Why Is Crude Oil Ignoring US Inventories? - 21st May 22
Here is Why I’m Still Bullish on Gold Mining Stocks - 21st May 22
US Real Estate Investors – Is There An End In Sight? - 20th May 22
How Technology Affected the Gaming Industry - 20th May 22
How To Set And Achieve Reasonable Goals For Your Company - 20th May 22
How Low Could the Amazon (AMZN) Stock Price Fall? - 19th May 22
Bitten by FANG? Clocked by Cryptos? -- 'Air Pockets' Everywhere - 19th May 22
Northern General Hospital Orthopedics Fractures and and Ankle Clinic Consultations Real Patient Experience - 19th May 22
Cathie Wood Goes All in on Teladoc, ARKK INSANE Noob Investing Strategy! - 17th May 22
This is Anything but Positive for US Housing Market - 17th May 22
What Should We Do If There Is No Fed Monetary Policy Pivot? - 17th May 22
All Possible Ways to Earn Free Litecoin - 17th May 22
How low Could the Amazon Stock Price Fall? - 16th May 22
Cathy Wood ARKK INSANITY There is NO Coming Back! - 16th May 22
NASDAQ 100 Stock Market LOWER LOWS & LOWER HIGH - 16th May 22
Sanctions, trade wars worsen US inflation - 16th May 22
AI Tech Stocks Earnings BloodBath Buying Opportunity - 14th May 22
Futures Contract – Trading Crude Oil With USO - 14th May 22
How to Get Kaspersky Internet Security for 80% Discount! Do not Pay Renewal Price! - 14th May 22
Sagittarius A* Super Massive Black Hole Monster at Centre of Our Galaxy REVEALED! - 14th May 22
UK Public Debt Smoking Inflation Gun - 13th May 22
What Happens When the Stock Market Dip Keeps Dipping? - 13th May 22
Biden Seeks Inflation Scapegoats; Gold Advocate Wins GOP Primary - 13th May 22
Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower - 12th May 22
The War on Gold Ensures the Dollar’s Downfall - 12th May 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Minor Top Is Nigh

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Apr 29, 2010 - 01:56 AM GMT

By: J_Derek_Blain


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Greek "crisis" continues to unfold almost uniformly to our expectations, and its ramifications for the EU as a whole are certainly not painting a rosy picture for the coming decades.

The first order of business is to deal with the still-open STD short.  I picked this bank back in December because it was a mirror of the overall psychology toward the finances of Greece itself, being a mammoth-sized financial institution (relative to Greece's overall economy).  Many readers sent emails and posted comments doubting this choice, and even the severity of the debt crisis that is unfolding.

This debt crisis is not a Greek, PIGS, or Euro problems alone - the entire world is going to soon enter another deflationary cycle after this reflationary pause is complete.  I don't feel there is much time left ticking on the reflation clock.  The market has ridden to exceptional highs, over 7.75% higher than our ideal retracement target of 1132 on the S&P500 (at its recent highest peak).  A very respectable opportunity to close out open long positions is at hand, and I suggest taking advantage of it with at least a large chunk of the core funds you don't want to put at unnecessary risk.

Today's break of recent key support opens the path for another sizable drop in Greek bank stocks, and further tensions in the EU

As for the broad markets as a whole, they are far overdue for at least a minor correction to shake off the extremes in positive sentiment we are seeing today and pull some more chasers into another small leg up.

An ideal retracement point on the Dow is around 10,800 before another leg up.  That being said, most are expecting at least another leg up, so there is a chance that a more major top is in the could erase 1/3 or more of the rally since March '09.

Speaking of Sentiment Extremes:

The credit contraction continues as M3's negative move accelerates even further.

As for the broad markets themselves, some sall non-confirmations of momentum and price could be indicating that larger move down.  Coupled with sentiment levels this is not a healthy stock market to be long in for the short term.  Once a small correction has occurred we will re-assess the situation and see where we can expect another minor leg up or more downside.  If the next day brings an immediate push down, the case for further downside is strengthened as this weeks bar would be a reversal bar (

The precious metals run-up seems to be drawing to an end.  The HUI hit the Fibonacci .618 retracement of the first larger down-move from December 2009.  It could not maintain a close above, and turned down in the last hour.   The initial ideal target has been met to mark the correction complete, however one final push up and a new high in 4 days would mark it complete in price target range and time as well.

One further piece of evidence that this move is corrective and not part of a larger trend up is that the slope of the move up is only 54% as strong as the down-move that preceded it.  The impulsive move ahead still seems to be more probably to the downside, and a significant one at that.

The non-confirmation between gold and silver should rectify itself with silver pushing to another final high.  The minimum corrective target at this point is $18.18 with further potential up to $19.00 and slightly above.  If this scenario plays out silver should immediately reverse and rapidly approach a new low for the move below $14.50 / oz

Have a great week!

Derek Blain

P.S. Comments or Questions?  Email me at

© 2010 Copyright J. Derek Blain - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in