Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Indian Stock Market Detailed Technical Analysis with Chart studies

Stock-Markets / India May 08, 2010 - 08:29 AM GMT

By: StocksBuddy

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs we have been stating repeatedly in our previous analysis, this week we were expecting negative divergence to kick in, and it clearly did. Nifty failed every move to cross the middle line of the BB channel as can be seen from the chart below. Nifty just followed the wrath of global markets to the downside with no pause at all.


This week nifty finally broke down from the tight trading range pattern. Nifty lost nearly 5% for the week. However this performance was better compared to S&P 500 in the US that lost nearly 6.5%. This shows the strength in the Emerging markets as investors are not really keen on selling into panics. That doesn't necessarily mean nifty cannot or will not go down further. The Rate Of Change (ROC) also matters a lot as it shows the underlying confidence and strength in a stock/index.

Technically Speaking:

Take a look at the Daily Nifty chart below.

The above chart uses TD Demark indicators extensively.

Positives:

  1. None in particular.
  2. Historically, each time TD Plurality indicator moved below -2 and above it, market has found a short term bottom as you can see from the chart
  3. TD REI sort of developing positive divergence.
  4. May be too oversold as Nifty kept challenging the lower BB each and every day.
Negatives:
  1. RSI going down the hill and pretty fast. Not good at all. Add to it, the negative divergence and downtrending resistance/slope.
  2. Way below the middle BB line means more downside action possible. As you can see, once nifty crosses this line, it goes on in that direction for at least a few more sessions.

Next Week:

Weekly chart is as bad as the daily one. Nifty broke below middle BB line with a brute force and a big red candle. MACD histogram also moved to the negative territory.

The chart below is the ratio chart of Indian VIX (Volatility index) to Nifty. This chart shows the correlation between Volatility and the moves in Nifty. The lower this chart, the higher the chances for Nifty to move up and vice-versa. We clearly have been stressing on the importance of this ratio chart staying above 0.0040 as being extremely negative for nifty. We also have been showing bunch of positive divergences on this chart that would lead to downside on nifty. And that worked out as predicted, this week.

After a long while, this ratio has actually managed to close outside of the Upper BB. This means, there is much more downside in nifty that is expected. However, there may be a bounce in the next few sessions owing to the extreme overbought nature of this ratio chart AND oversold nature of indices.

Trades for Next week

Last week we clearly stated that If you have already initiated a short position, trade with strict SL and that it was NOT a good time to go long. Our stance this week hasn't changed a bit. Friday US markets closed in red and which would mean that there is a high potential of nifty opening lower. However, we expect some bounce in the first part of next week owing to the extreme oversold nature in the very short term (VST). It may be a good idea to lighten some of your short positions and wait for the next opportunity to either go short or long. Do not go long or short in the next week, unless your trade duration is intraday or at most 1-2 days.

Alerts : Gold Broke out this week. Extremely Bullish. Might retest previous breakout levels, but it is a clear BUY at this time.

Have a Wonderful Trading Week ahead.

Regards

IndianStockCharts.com Team

Disclaimer: At the time of this writing, neither the authors nor our team held any positions on any securities unless otherwise explicitly stated. All information above is only for educational purposes and you are responsible for your own actions.

http://www.StocksBuddy.com

India's No.1 Trading Community From the desk of StocksBuddy.com Analysts comes the above article. SB Analyst team comprises of experts from varied fields such as Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Macro-Micro Economics, World Affairs, Currency and much more. Apart from user contributions, our analysts post analysis on StocksBuddy.com on a regular basis. For more details, please visit us @ http://www.stocksbuddy.com/blogs

© 2009 Copyright StocksBuddy - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in