Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Ray Dalio: This Debt Cycle Will End Soon - John_Mauldin
2.Stock Market Dow Plunge Following Fake US - China Trade War Truce - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices 2019 No Deal BrExit 30% Crash Warning! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.What the Oil Short-sellers and OPEC Don’t Know about Peak Shale - Andrew_Butter
5.Stock Market Crashed While the Yield Curve Inverted - Troy_Bombardia
6.More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next - Troy_Bombardia
7.US Economy Will Deteriorate Over Next Half Year. What this Means for Stocks - Troy_Bombardia
8.TICK TOCK, Counting Down to the Next Recession - James_Quinn
9.How Theresa May Put Britain on the Path Towards BrExit Civil War - Nadeem_Walayat
10.This Is the End of Trump’s Economic Sugar High - Patrick_Watson
Last 7 days
Jeff Gundlach thinks that a Stocks Bear Market has started. Is he Right? - 18th Dec 18
Gold’s Not An Investment – You Won’t Get Rich - 17th Dec 18
Stock Market At Medium-Term Lows, Which Direction is Next? - 17th Dec 18
This Stock Will Drive America’s 5G Buildout - 17th Dec 18
Stock Market Turn In The Tide - Have a Happy Bear Market! - 17th Dec 18
How A NASA Scientist Could Trigger The Next Cannabis Boom - 17th Dec 18
iShares Russell 2000 IWM Leading Stock Market Decline - 17th Dec 18
Where is the Dow Stock Market Santa Rally? - 17th Dec 18
With Weaker Climate Consensus, Expect Elevated Climate Change - 16th Dec 18
SMIGGLE Advent Calendar 2018 UK Contents - What You Get Look Inside Review - 16th Dec 18
Is there a Lump of Coal in Santa's Stock Market Bag? - 16th Dec 18
This Market Will Drive Gold in 2019… - 16th Dec 18
Gerald Celente:Central Banks Can’t Stop a 2019 Debt Disaster - 16th Dec 18
Gold Stocks Triple Breakout - 15th Dec 18
The stock market fails to rally each day. What’s next for stocks - 14th Dec 18
How Low Could the S&P 500 Go? - 14th Dec 18
An Industrial to Stock Trade: Is Boeing a BUY Here? - 14th Dec 18
Will the Arrest of Huawei Executive Derail Trade War Truce? - 14th Dec 18
Trump vs the Fed: Who Wins? - 13th Dec 18
Expect Gold & Silver to Pullback Before the Next Move Higher - 13th Dec 18
Dollar Index Trends, USDJPY Setting Up - 13th Dec 18
While The Stocks Bulls Fiddle With The 'Fundamentals,' Rome Burns - 13th Dec 18
The Historic Role of Silver - 13th Dec 18
Natural Gas Price Setup for a Big Move Lower - 13th Dec 18
How to Get 20% Off Morrisons Weekly Supermarket Shopping - 13th Dec 18
Gold Price Analysis: Closer To A Significant Monetary Event - 13th Dec 18
Where is the Stock Market Santa Claus Rally? - 12th Dec 18
Politics and Economics in Times of Crisis - 12th Dec 18
Owning Precious Metals in an IRA - 12th Dec 18
Ways to Improve the Value of Your Home - 12th Dec 18
Theresa May No Confidence Vote, Next Tory Leader Betting Market Analysis and Forecasts - 12th Dec 18
Gold & Global Financial Crisis Redux - 12th Dec 18
Wow Your Neighbours With the Best Christmas Projector Lights for Holidays 2018! - 12th Dec 18
Stock Market Topping Formation as Risks Rise Around the World - 11th Dec 18
The Amazing Story of Gold to Gold Stocks Ratios - 11th Dec 18
Stock Market Medium term Bullish, But Long Term Risk:Reward is Bearish - 11th Dec 18
Is a Deleveraging Event about to Unfold in the Stock Market? - 11th Dec 18
Making Money through Property Investment - 11th Dec 18
Brexit: What Will it Mean for Exchange Rates? - 11th Dec 18
United States Facing Climate Change Severe Water Stress - 10th Dec 18
Waiting for Gold Price to Erupt - 10th Dec 18
Stock Market Key Support Being Re-Tested - 10th Dec 18
May BrExit Deal Tory MP Votes Forecast, Betting Market Analysis - 10th Dec 18
Listen to What Gold is Telling You - 10th Dec 18
The Stock Market’s Long Term Outlook is Changing - 10th Dec 18
Palladium Shortages Expose Broken Futures Markets for Precious Metals - 9th Dec 18
Is an Inverted Yield Curve Bullish for Gold? - 9th Dec 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How You Could Make £2,850 Per Month

EuroZone Bailout Band Aids for Everyone

Politics / Credit Crisis Bailouts May 12, 2010 - 01:22 PM GMT

By: John_Browne

Politics

As the health of much of the global economy weakens on a daily basis, political leadership increasingly ignores the source of the malady and instead focuses on short term "band-aid" remedies. These measures which may buy a few months, or years, of relative well being, will convince the public that problems have been solved and will thereby take pressure off governments to make the needed structural changes.


The recently announced $1 trillion EU bailout is a perfect example of this "band-aid" approach. The just concluded general election in the United Kingdom is another. The inconclusive UK result, which creates a Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition, will be an unhappy, unquestionably temporary arrangement. Similarly, the EU bailout will continue to infuriate Northern Europeans, who may ultimately push for a breakup of the Union.

NuLabour (what the center-drifting Labour Party of Tony Blair has been branded) took a spectacular beating as a result of the clumsy stewardship of now former Prime Minister, Gordon Brown. Mr. Brown, whom I knew as a political bruiser in his early days in the House of Commons, had led Britain far down the road to economic ruin. As a very powerful Chancellor of the Exchequer under Tony Blair, he introduced many stealth taxes to finance a wave of high government spending. Seemingly operating as an unelected Prime Minister, he unleashed massive spending programs and interfered with UK banks in ways that worsened the effects of the financial crisis.

After Brown formally succeeded Blair in June of 2007, he soon became one of the most unpopular Prime Ministers in more than a century. The fact that David Cameron and the Conservatives were unable to capitalize on this weakness to secure a massive victory must be seen as a major failure.

Furthermore, Cameron was so anxious for personal power that he accepted a power sharing arrangement with the Liberal Democrats, a party with many key views to the left of NuLabour. This will lead to damaging compromises that, over time, will likely threaten both his parliamentary and grass roots support. Indeed cracks already are showing in the Conservative ranks.

The fragile coalition likely will have little appetite for the tough economic decisions that need to be made, including the adoption of austerity measures that must surely accompany any meaningful attempt to curb the unhealthy deficit. This political paralysis will leave the UK increasingly exposed to default and economically ruinous inflation. Those deemed to be responsible for any continued economic weakness will likely to be voted out in the next election, which could come as soon as 12 months. Labour's status as the opposition party may be brief.

In short, personal ambition has driven Cameron to fall into a major political trap. He would have been well advised to shun a coalition and leave the political costs of acute austerity and abject poverty to a NuLabour/Liberal Democrat coalition who would be cast out at the next election, leaving a much stronger and unencumbered Conservative Party in power for years to come.

The massive EU/ IMF band-aid to insulate default contagion will likely share a similar fate. The move, which will prevent the needed restructuring of the EU's "Club Med" countries, will destroy the Euro and unleash massive inflation. The furious spike in gold prices in the days after the EU capitulation indicates the depth and breadth of this consensus. Worse yet, in exchange for sowing the seeds for disunion, the bailout will achieve nothing significant.

The package may well insulate Greece from market default for some 18 months, but it will do little to change Greek habits. Even at almost a trillion dollars, it will prove insufficient to meet the likely cumulative needs of Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland, France and the UK.

Furthermore, despite their leaders' willingness to protect the Club Med and the cohesion of the EU, the German population is increasingly angry. Indeed, as a result of her support for the Greek bailout, Chancellor Merkel suffered a serious electoral setback on May 9th.

In short both the UK conservatives and the EU appear to have been so tempted by achieving or retaining political power within their failed economic models that they have fallen into electoral traps that likely will threaten their political survival within the coming year. They may have bought themselves some time, but little else.

By John Browne
Euro Pacific Capital
http://www.europac.net/

More importantly make sure to protect your wealth and preserve your purchasing power before it's too late. Discover the best way to buy gold at www.goldyoucanfold.com , download my free research report on the powerful case for investing in foreign equities available at www.researchreportone.com , and subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter at http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp

John Browne is the Senior Market Strategist for Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.  Mr. Brown is a distinguished former member of Britain's Parliament who served on the Treasury Select Committee, as Chairman of the Conservative Small Business Committee, and as a close associate of then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Among his many notable assignments, John served as a principal advisor to Mrs. Thatcher's government on issues related to the Soviet Union, and was the first to convince Thatcher of the growing stature of then Agriculture Minister Mikhail Gorbachev. As a partial result of Brown's advocacy, Thatcher famously pronounced that Gorbachev was a man the West "could do business with."  A graduate of the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Britain's version of West Point and retired British army major, John served as a pilot, parachutist, and communications specialist in the elite Grenadiers of the Royal Guard.

John_Browne Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules